View source for ChatGPT4-Questions/User:Darwin2049/Overview

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'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">OpenAI - ChatGPT4.</SPAN>''''' <BR />
In what follows we attempt to address several basic questions about the onrushing progress with the current focus of artificial intelligence. There are several competing actors in this space. These include OpenAI, DeepMind, Anthropic, and Cohere. A number of other competitors are active in the artificial intelligence market place. But for purposes of brevity and because of the overlap we will limit focus on ChatGPT4 (CG4). Further, we focus on several salient questions that that raise questions of safety, risk and prospects. <BR />
Specifically, risks that involve or are:
*'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:YELLOW">[https://arguably.io/User:Darwin2049/ChatGPT4/Conclusions_Synthesis Interfacing/Accessibility-Conformability - Synthesis.]</SPAN>''''' <Span Style="COLOR:WHITE; BACKGROUND:TEAL"> how will different groups interact with, respond to and be affected by it; might access modalities available to one group have positive or negative implications for other groups; </SPAN>
*'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:YELLOW">[https://arguably.io/Darwin2049/chatgpt4_omega_political Political/Competitive - Synthesis.]</SPAN>''''' <Span Style="COLOR:WHITE; BACKGROUND:TEAL"> how might different groups or actors gain or lose relative advantage; also, how might it be used as a tool of control;</SPAN>  
*'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:YELLOW">[https://arguably.io/Darwin2049/chatgpt4_omega_evolutionary Evolutionary/Stratification - Synthesis.]</SPAN>''''' <Span Style="COLOR:WHITE; BACKGROUND:TEAL"> might new classifications of social categories emerge; were phenotypical bifurcations to emerge would or how would the manifest themselves;</SPAN><BR />
* '''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:YELLOW">[https://arguably.io/Https://arguably.io/User:Darwin2049/chatgpt4_omega_epistemological Epistemological - Synthesis]</SPAN>''''' <BR />how to reconcile ethical issues within a society, between societies; more specifically, might it provide solutions or results that are acceptable to the one group but unacceptable to the other group;</SPAN><BR />

'''''<Span Style="COLOR:WHITE;BACKGROUND:BLUE">Synthesis.''''' Four question groups (indicated above '''''<Span Style="COLOR:WHITE; BACKGROUND:BLUE">interface, political, evolution </SPAN>'''''and '''''<Span Style="COLOR:WHITE;BACKGROUND:BLUE">epistemological</SPAN>''''') are the foundation upon which the analysis as presented follows. Addressing these questions meant acknowledging that they entail both explicit and implicit questions. 

'''''<Span Style="COLOR:WHITE;BACKGROUND:BLUE">Game: Zero or Non-Zero Sum.</SPAN>''''' Each question group points to questions of power shift dynamics; who comes out ahead and who does not; <BR />
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'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:YELLOW">[https://arguably.io/User:Darwin2049/chatgpt4_impressions Impressions and Sentiment]'''''</SPAN>
<!--'''''<Span Style="COLOR:WHITE;BACKGROUND:BLUE">Impressions.</SPAN>''''' -->Addressing these question indicated that making a short survey of reporting with the intent to gauge the reported sentiment might offer some insight. The results suggested four major categories. These sentiments included ('''''positives''''' favor continued advances '''''worried''''' cautious, worried; '''''alarmed''''' petitioned for government intervention; '''''battle stations!''''' being overtaken by a rival is unacceptable);<BR />
The way that these sentiments were categorized in terms of risk involved describing the kind of risk that each seemed to be either stating explicitly or implying.<BR />
'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:YELLOW">[https://arguably.io/User:Darwin2049/ChatGPT4_Operations  Operations]'''''</SPAN>, i.e. might understanding CG4's internal mechanisms offer insight into how one group might gain or lose advantage? might understanding how similar Deep Learning systems work and how or if they insight into their own operational processes? <BR />
'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:YELLOW">[https://arguably.io/User:Darwin2049/ChatGPT4/Risks  Risks.]'''''</SPAN> Framing the observable sentiment into categories made describing CG4 into risk categories became considerably easier. Three primary categories emerged: systemic, malicious and theoretical. The category of theoretical obliged the recognition that CG4 is inherently dual-use. The result was the category of risks that are  ('''''systemic:''''' innate - simply because the technology exists; '''''malicious actors:''''' old tasks new tools; '''''theoretical and speculative:''''' possible now, like controlling fire); <BR />
'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:YELLOW">Quantum wild card.'''''</SPAN> The IBM Quantum System Two (EOM 2023) has served notice that it will release 432 q-bit Osprey. Migrating Deep Learning systems to a quantum computing environment will result in a before/after event. <BR />
'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:YELLOW">[https://arguably.io/User:Darwin2049/chatgpt4_caveats Caveats]'''''</SPAN> Our analysis to this point has suggested that several crucial factors be acknowledged. These include such observations that Deep Learning technology results are dual use. They can be used to further facilitate social, economic and political well being. But they can also be used for malicious purposes that can not yet be imagined.<BR />
'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:YELLOW">Intermediate Synthesis'''''</SPAN> Based upon what we have observed and ruminated on to this point we offer a few intermediate observations before moving to the more speculative prospects that may follow.<BR />
'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:YELLOW">Speculations'''''</SPAN> The prospects described in the following paragraphs are derivative of what is now known to be possible. They are intended to be on the cautious and conservative side of the spectrum of possible new uses. Doubtless developments may well show that they were altogether too cautious.<BR />
'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:YELLOW">Conclusions'''''</SPAN> Finally we try to arrive at what supports our position regarding how the question groups were answered. These were the questions on interfaces, political, evolutionary and epistemology. <BR />
'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:YELLOW">Note & References'''''</SPAN> The notes and references that follow are intended to provide further support to the theses promoted in this effort.
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<!--  arguably.io/Darwin2049/                                                            -->
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*'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:YELLOW">[https://arguably.io/Https://arguably.io/User:Darwin2049/chatgpt4_omega_epistemological Epistemological/Ethical Relativism - Synthesis]</SPAN>'''''<Span Style="COLOR:WHITE; BACKGROUND:TEAL"> how to reconcile ethical issues within a society, between societies; more specifically, might it provide solutions or results that are acceptable to the one group but unacceptable to the other group;<Span Style="COLOR:WHITE; BACKGROUND:BLUE"><BR />
'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">Synthesis.</SPAN>''''' <BR /> These four question groups (''<Span Style="COLOR:WHITE; BACKGROUND:BLUE">interface, political, evolution</SPAN> and <Span Style="COLOR:WHITE; BACKGROUND:BLUE">epistemological</SPAN>'') form the core of what follows. Attempting to respond to these questions obliged the development of a review and response plan. What followed is a set of steps that have attempted to shed light on each of these areas; over the course of this examination the reality has been that addressing these four groups was not a straightforward one to one mapping; 

Instead, addressing them has meant gaining focus on informed perceptions by knowledge able observers; from there it was possible to proceed to try to answer the implicit questions relating to risk; in order to understand risk entailed getting a better picture of what underpins the CG4 technology and by corollary its peer architectures; by way of identifying and articulating the various risk categories only a short step was indicated to ask the question of "what happens now?"; this is presented in a speculative step into a near future when new tools and processes have become accepted

Therefore this examination proceeds along the following lines: 
*'''''overview informed sentiment:''''' if possible group together into camps which turned out to reduce to: (''1) press on, 2) proceed with caution, 3) severe storm warnings ahead, 4) damn the torpedoes! full speed ahead!.'' );  
*'''''we know that they are there:''''' knowledgeable observers have provided numerous reports of CCP hacking and related malicious efforts;
*'''''they have signaled their intentions''''' CCP literature and propaganda has made very clear that the West is an obstacle and that the US is the prime target;
*'''''their approach has been adversarial:''''' they have used clearly hostile practices to gain strategic advantage 
*'''''expert consensus confirms this reality:''''' the PRC has clearly indicated its intent to become the global leader;
*'''''the risk can not be ignored:''''' for the West to do otherwise risks experiencing a potentially crippling setback; the extreme risk category asserts that maintaining the technological lead is non-negotiable;  

By of proceeding, we:
*'''''spotlight the main AI approaches:''''' show several comparable technologies (''generative, transformers, bidirectional, bidirectional encoders, generative adversarial, convolutional, recursive, large language models.'');<BR />
*'''''focus risk questions:''''' the four question groups mentioned above implicitly suggest risk; the following analysis offers several examples that suggest how CG4 class systems will extend the realities of risk; ''systemic, malicious and theoretical''); in the case of theoretical we would add that caveats apply when reviewing this group because of the inherent dual use capabilities that CG4 offers;
*'''''exemplify risk categories:''''' show examples of how the new technology will impact existing risks and suggest novel new risks that may arise;<BR />
'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">Looking Forward.</SPAN>''''' The picture that appears to be emerging suggests that looking forward a short distance in time suggests that a range of surprises await those who are using this technology. 
'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">Black Swan Event.</SPAN>''''' Recent developments in the area of quantum computing suggests that as this technology gains it grounding everything done with computing and especially artificial intelligence will be totally eclipsed by the capabilities that this new environment will offer.  
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* '''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:YELLOW">[https://arguably.io/User:Darwin2049/chatgpt4_impressions Impressions]</SPAN>''''' that have been expressed by knowledgeable observers; a short sampling of impressions and perceptions include voices that are or are saying: 
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*'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:YELLOW">[https://arguably.io/User:Darwin2049/chatgpt4_caveats  Caveats.]</SPAN>''''' <BR />After assessing the range of sentiment from very well informed observers and experts our conclusion is that a summary of caveats and qualifications might help in constraining and focusing the discussion going forward. 
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* '''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">An inflection point</SPAN>''''' either has or momentarily will be or has been reached; 
* '''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">mitigating surprise</SPAN>''''' the concerned community would be well advised to regularly monitor the archive for papers  so as to mitigate the gain early warning; 
* '''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">Imaginative expectation is advised</SPAN>''''' because novel combinations are emerging that will herald entirely new forms of CP capabilities; most of which can not be guessed at as of this writing (Fall 2023); 
* '''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">quantum computing will eclipse all advances to date</SPAN>''''' As of this report the major actors in this space have already reported advances. In the case of the IBM corporation their Quantum System Two may very well shatter all expectations. Current indications are that deep learning tools can be hosted on these new environments. At that point in time the ability of a deep learning CP based tool will take on qualities that can not now be estimated. Current training times have been reported to have required weeks to months to train as was the case of CG4. These times may now collapse to seconds or less.
* '''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">pseudo-AGI (PAGI)</SPAN>''''' might be a way to envision what to expect. This terminology is intended to suggest that the term AGI might be too simplistic and may require further analysis and refinement. 
** '''''Quantum Based CP (QBCP)'''''soon-to-be formally announced quantum computing systems will become the next logical environment in which to host CPs; when this happens expect training volumes to explode and training times to collapse; incorporation of knew knowledge will become almost instant;
** '''''intelligent interfacing tools ''''' incorporating advanced theory of mind metrics will minimize the interval between end user motivation hypothesis and action plan to mere instants; such a capability might appear to even an expert user like interacting with an extremely well versed, empathetic and supportive colleague;
** '''''autonomous QBCP/PAGI linking'''''' multiple QBCP's will form ad hoc or permanent communications pathways between themselves; these assemblages will enable the merging of multiple skills and capabilities that can not now be guessed at; these new capabilities will extend and then supersede the current trend of using communications tools such as WebEx or Zoom for conferencing; rather individuals who are in possession of their own targeted CP will enable access to peer CP's; this access might be transitory and transactional or might form the basis of new enterprises;
** '''''exponential growth - Cambrian explosion''''' no capabilities such as this have yet been reported; yet there appear to be no obstacles to their development; the rise of 
** '''''dawn of advanced composite CP's ''''' construction of modern cruise ships might serve as a basis upon which to understand the scale of capability that will shortly emerge; 
** '''''Darwinian evolution''''' AGI may have yet to arrive; however close approximations may soon become evident; we could see an accelerated Moore's Law of evolution where problems that have heretofore taken months or years to solve might not only be solved in a morning but that highly sophisticated access and control tools might become commonly available mid-afternoon; 
* '''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:YELLOW">[https://arguably.io/User:Darwin2049/ChatGPT4_Operations Terms, Theory of Operation]</SPAN>'''''  
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**concepts are presented that contrast large language models with generative and generative adversarial models;
**several other deep learning models are summarized as well for the purpose of further context; 
**LLM operation is sketched out in this section; several helpful video segments are presented that are intended to further facilitate why the LLM approach has become so successful; 
**novel and unexpected forms of emergent behavior are mentioned;<BR />
*'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:YELLOW">[https://arguably.io/User:Darwin2049/ChatGPT4/RISKS Risks]</SPAN>''''' our approach has been to present a few commonly occurring risks these have collected into groups that are 
**'''''organic''''' or otherwise systemic and innate within the science or technology itself;
**'''''malicious actors''''' should be expected to formulate highly elaborate netcentric attacks; we should expect that elaborate collections of actions, bait and switch, false flag and seemingly random but covertly connected acts of sabotage to become the new normal;
**'''''theoretical risks''''' are speculative; but are based upon what is know known and are intended to spotlight what is possible within the purview of known capabilities;

*'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:YELLOW">[https://arguably.io/User:Darwin2049/ChatGPT4_Intermediate_Considerations Intermediate Considerations.]</SPAN>''''' 
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**	is based upon and is a refinement of its predecessor, the Chat GPT 3.5 system;
**	has been developed using the generative predictive transformer (GPT) model;
**	has been trained on a very large data set including textual material that can be found on the internet; unconfirmed rumors suggest that it has been trained on 1 trillion parameters;
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**	can link topics in a chronologically consistent manner and refer back to them in current prompt requests;
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**	uses deep learning neural networks and very large training data sets;
**	uses a SAAS model; like Google Search, Youtube or Morningstar Financial;
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<BR />'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:YELLOW">Back to root page: [https://arguably.io/ChatGPT4-Questions ChatGPT4-Questions]</SPAN>'''''
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'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">Original Questions.</SPAN>''''' Formulating a response to these questions took the approach of scanning whatever news reports seemed to make mention of the topic; from there look for sentiment patterns or groupings;<BR /> as this process progressed

'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">Sentiment.</SPAN>''''' In order to maintain focus and forward momentum sentiment has been expressed as voices arguing in favor of further development. Other notable voices have urged caution going forward. Not least among them were such notable figures as Elon Musk. Voices expressing the same sentiment but with greater force suggested that all efforts going forward with this research should be paused for a limited amount of time. Then there were voices that expressed grave concern that this represents an existential all-of-national-resources imperative to go pedal to the metal. The risk to slow down or pause while avowed rivals are pressing ahead was just too great. In short the main camps that seem to have coalesced include: '''''press on, proceed with caution, severe storm warnings ahead, damn the torpedoes full speed ahead.'''''<BR />

'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">Literature Review.</SPAN>''''' Therefore the path of progress proceeded along the lines of: what are informed people saying about this new capability was foretelling. Reporting seemed to be increasing by the day. This necessitated limiting the choices of what to view and include since trying to gather it all could become a research project in and of itself. 

Based upon these sentiment it should come as no surprise that the risks are real and pressing. Anyone viewing a real time world map of malicious attacks shows a planet awash in twenty-four seven activity.<BR /> 

'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">Model Variations.</SPAN>''''' By this point in the examination it became evident that putting a spotlight the underlying technology might help. This revealed that there were several variations on the underlying approach of Deep Learning systems. Prominent ones included: 
'''''generative, transformers, bidirectional, bidirectional encoders, generative adversarial, convolutional, recursive, large language models.'''''<BR /> 
We briefly touch on each of these but the main focus has been on the LLM approach that uses a Pretrained approach, hence the name GPT... generative pretrained transformers.<BR />

'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">Risks.</SPAN>''''' Therefore the immediate follow on question became given that this is a major advance in a known technology how might it be incorporated, the answer to that rhetorical question fell right out into plain view as being how might this new technology pose risks, and what kinds of risks. These immediately fell into three main categories... i.e. risks that were organic (they arose innately as a result of their existence), malicious (actors with malevolent intent) and theoretical (possible new developments that are possible or newly enabled).<BR /> 
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