View source for User:Darwin2049/ChatGPT4/Conclusions Synthesis

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[[File:fire00.jpg|180px|left|Fire]]
'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:YELLOW">[https://arguably.io/ChatGPT4-Questions/User:Darwin2049/Overview Overview] '''''</BR>
'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">Interfacing/Access - Synthesis, Conclusions.</SPAN>'''''</BR> 
*'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:WHITE">Adeptness with CG4.''''' Skills with this new capability will be comparable to taming fire.<BR />
Specifically, risks that either involve or actually are:<BR />
CG4, its derivatives and brethren will introduce consequences just as transformative; we therefore note that:
* '''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:WHITE">CG4 CP's are Dual Use.</SPAN>''''' Just like fire, CG4 will be used for both constructive as well as destructive purposes; 
* '''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:WHITE">Pre-literate vs. Post-literate Societies.</SPAN>''''' it is a powerful enabler for leveraging a collection of people toward forming a self sustaining, much more advanced social structures and organizational units; 
* '''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:WHITE">New Horizons.</SPAN>''''' CG4 will enable the recognition, articulation solutions to problems that less adept societies could not;
* '''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:WHITE">On Bringing a Knife to a Gun Fight - Prospects.</SPAN>''''' pre-CG4 social polities will be at a severe disadvantage comparable to the encounter between conquistadors vs indigenous New World natives. At minimum we should expect to see CG4 class CP's being used as:
*'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:WHITE">Self Contained Tools.</SPAN>''''' An increasing recognition that CG4-Class tools can serve as capabilities in and of themselves; that this is evident can be seen when a query is posed to CG4 to translate a tract of text to another language, or provide a synopsis of it; these are all intrinsic capabilities of the tool... in and of itself;
*'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:WHITE">"Bridging" Mechanisms.</SPAN>''''' These will serve as CP connectors to other more specialized capabilities such as IBM Watson or CYC Corp's CYC common sense knowledge base system; it is important to keep clearly in mind that humans operate at ultra-low bandwidth when conversing; considerable information is embedded in context rather than explicitly stated; mechanism such as CG4 and its peers are capable of interacting at electronic speed; therefore can exchange enormous volumes of information almost instantly;
*'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:WHITE">Composite Cognitive Prosthetics.</SPAN>''''' Multiple instances configured to be autonomous agents based upon CG4 can be collected together to form "societies of mind"; initial versions might have many to tens of instances; later variations might range into the hundreds or thousands of agents; theoretically the only practical upper limit to how many agents can be connected together is limited by the physical hardware available at the time; 
**'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:WHITE">Extended Composite CP Systems.</SPAN>''''' Marketplaces offering ad hoc or persistent composite capabilities will proliferate. These will offer features and capabilities that can only be guessed at.
[[File:TechUptake.jpg|550px|left|Uptake]]
*'''''<Span Style="COLOR:WHITE; BACKGROUND:TEAL">How Different Groups Can or Will Interact with this New Capability?</SPAN>'''''
**'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:WHITE">Innovators vs Laggards.''''' It is not uncommon to encounter a friend, family member or colleague who is extremely adept at using the latest features of a smart phone or pad type computer; while on the other hand there are others who are baffled by the variety of features available on a common Android or iPhone and limit their usage to managing voice or text interactions; beyond that they basically waste the other 90%+ of the device's capabilities; 
**'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:WHITE">Selective Usage.</SPAN>''''' There are also those who find that their "smart" device can do more than send or receive communications but can perform many other capabilities; as a typical user might explore and employ those that are of greatest utility to themselves; but this simply reconfirms that these are actually general purpose computers; they simply have no moving parts, run on batteries and collapse the user interface onto a small color screen;
**'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:WHITE">Same Wine New Bottle.</SPAN>''''' We should expect to see the same pattern repeat; those who are motivated to explore the new capabilities will excel at leveraging its capabilities; those who do not will remain perpetually playing catch up;
[[File:CG400.jpg|400px|right|Race To The Top]]
*'''''<Span Style="COLOR:WHITE; BACKGROUND:TEAL">How Will or Can They Respond to its Existence and Presence.</SPAN>''''' Recent studies have made plain that a powerful new technology will be adapted in record time if it is demonstrably a powerful leveraging tool; evidence of this can be seen in how quickly it is adapted.
**'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:WHITE">The CG4 "Uptake Curve".</SPAN>''''' CG4 reached over one million users in a matter of days.
**'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:WHITE">Within Less Than Two Months.</SPAN>''''' CG4 had reached 100 million users worldwide. This rapid uptake pace suggests that momentum has built that will drive further uptake by those less inclined to vigilance about the rapid pace of change that this technology brings;
**<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:WHITE">New Capabilities.</SPAN>''''' An entire library of CG4 material has sprung into existence on how to use create new applications and extensions; 
*'''''<Span Style="COLOR:WHITE; BACKGROUND:TEAL">How will they be affected by this new capability.</SPAN>''''' 
**'''''Personalized Tutors.</SPAN>''''' CG4 provides a user with the ability to pose remarkably sophisticated questions on a broad range of topics; where the acquisition of a new skill or area of expertise is envisioned it is capable of creating a study guide with a complete syllabus that provides a pathway from even the most superficial grasp of a topic to its most advanced areas; 
**'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:WHITE">Interactive Audio Books.</SPAN>''''' Audio books will become passé; instead it will become preferable to be able to have a conversation with the book itself; were one to study the works of Konrad Nietzsche one would instead be able to effectively converse or otherwise "talk" with Nietzsche and discuss the various topics that the actual philosopher entertained when writing his works; we should expect to see variations on this capability wherein several legacy experts simulacra were instantiated and communications between them or existent users was enabled; a case in point might be enabling a conversation between Frank Herbert (author of Dune), Alan Watts and for instance, Jordan Peterson; a user initiating a session such as this would experience the two instances interacting and discussing with each other points of clarification; clearly even larger sets of knowledge areas can be brought to bear as well;
**'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:WHITE">Cross-Referenced Expertise</SPAN>''''' Multiple insights will become available within a single interactive session; for instance were one to study the topic of Stoicism as described by Epictetus and his peers as described, one might be able to re-represent his insights into a compact symbolic logic representation; such a representation structure might be used to provide insight on family or personal matters by individuals trained as sociologists or psychotherapists; for a given psychotherapeutic setting, several points of view might be offered on a specific psychological issue; one perspective might derive from a Jungian approach to the problem; another perspective might derive from a Berne approach (transactional analysis); these two perspectives might "discuss and debate" with each other their respective positions and subsequently offer their recommendations on how to proceed; 
[[File:UptakeSpread.jpg|500px|left|Groups]] 
**'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:WHITE">Individualized Advisors (professional and life coaches).</SPAN>''''' Individuals who aspire to the top ranks incorporations have come to recognize that navigating a successful path to the top requires a range of skills including leadership, communication and narrative story telling. It is uncommon to find the full set of these skills in any specific individual. Enabling access to the insights of experts in each of these areas will become more accessible and available.
**'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:WHITE">Enhanced Collaborative Problem Solving.</SPAN>''''' Existing WebEx, Skype or Zoom teleconferencing have become common in enabling voice and video online and real time discussion; stepping into a higher dimension we should expect to see individuals come to the fore each with their individualized CP tool set and offer access to their peer experts;
**'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:WHITE">Emergence of marketplaces for novel objects, products and services.''''' CG4 class CP's are already spawning new products and services; one case in point can be seen with the availability of organizations offering vector database services to host extended memory for LLM's; the existing CG4 offers a broad range and depth of capability; for specific purposes however fine tuning is indicated; looking forward a short way down the road we should expect to see organizations offering their services or tools that facilitate the fine tuning task; the ability to fine tune a LLM will mean that there will be an explosion in the range, sophistication and depth of capability of LLM based tools;
**'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:WHITE">Novel and Inexplicable Disruptions</SPAN>''''' Of service providers such as wireless or other online capabilities. The recent ransom-ware attacked that happened in Las Vegas in the US underscore the reality of malicious use of netcentric tools as weapons; as netcentric attacks were beginning to ramp up several years ago a favorite vector of attack was to use the distributed denial of service (DDOS) approach; in this approach hundreds or thousands of PC's were redirected to request a response to a specific web server; the requests were repeated endlessly until the hosting server was overwhelmed and was unable to respond; the result was that the website timed out; it became inaccessible; a variation on this approach can be used with comparable tools but targeted in a coordinated fashion at mobile phones; the result can be a combination traffic management attack combined with mobile phone attacks; that this is plausible is corroborated by the fact that users of such services as Tik Tok are able to geolocate a specific individuals location as well as launch other forms of disruption to that individual's mobile phone; were many individuals phones to be used as an attack vector then many people could find themselves trapped in a traffic gridlock and unable to reach others; the Israeli Pegasus tool has made very clear that it is fully capable of seizing control of any mobile phone on the planet;
**'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:WHITE">High Risk/Payoff Early Adapters.</SPAN>''''' The early adaptors will explore the new terrain and gain the advantages that those who have mapped out the advantageous terrain is relative to the pitfalls. We should see a proliferation of tools that facilitate fine tuning, simplification of incorporation of vector databases that dramatically expand on a CP's ability to access a specific domain or set of knowledge domains.
*'''''<Span Style="COLOR:WHITE; BACKGROUND:TEAL">might the various access modalities that are available to one group have positive or negative implications for other groups.</SPAN>'''''
**'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:WHITE">Early vs. Late Adapters.''''' This pattern appears to repeat itself; therefore we should expect to see the same thing happen; those who can leverage these capabilities will define the new high ground; the rest will play catch up; or simply be left behind "in the past";
**'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:WHITE">Increasingly Chaotic Anecdotal Realities.</SPAN>''''' Further fragmentation appears to be emerging as the new normal; deep fake news reports, conspiracy theories are likely to abound; new services will emerge comparable to '''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:YELLOW">[https://ground.news/ Ground News]</SPAN>''''' wherein reporting sources will be ranked in terms of bias and reliability. 
**'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:WHITE">Phenotypical Bifurcation.<SPAN>''''' Currently the perceptible difference between individuals who are adept with a new technology vs. those who are not is typically not obvious; going forward the differences may remain somewhat obscure but the distance between the two categories are likely to widen to the point that one might as well identify the one group - early adapters and innovators as being members of a different phenotype compared to those who are slow to adapt; with the former group becoming adept at navigating the new reality in effect leaving the latter group to navigate with poor dexterity;
**'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:WHITE">Skills Explosion - Generalists & Specialists.</SPAN>''''' New skill collection will emerge with the new environment; the explosion of the World Wide Web led to new categories of individual who were adept at web site creation, with the vast expansion of web sites the need for search emerged which led to organizations that organized and indexed the population of existing and new web sites; these refined their reason for existence by ranking and thereby promoting various sites; this led to the entirely new skill of search engine optimization (SEO); myriad new services have emerged such as virtual private networking, ad blocking and automatic notifications; the new environment will experience a comparable emergence of specialist skills that will facilitate usage of this new "fire"; 

<!--'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">Synthesis: In greater detail</SPAN>''''' <BR /> -->
'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLU; BACKGROUND:YELLOW">[https://arguably.io/User:Darwin2049/chatgpt4_omega_interface Interface: Cases, Details]'''''