Difference between revisions of "User:Darwin2049/ChatGPT4/Conclusions Synthesis"

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'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">Interfacing/Access - Conclusions:</SPAN>''''' Facility in control of CG4 type tools will be comparable to taming fire;<BR />
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[[File:fire00.jpg|180px|left|Fire]]
[[File:fire00.jpg|180px|left|Fire]]
'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:YELLOW">[https://arguably.io/ChatGPT4-Questions/User:Darwin2049/Overview Overview] '''''</BR>
'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">Interfacing/Access - Synthesis, Conclusions.</SPAN>'''''</BR>
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*'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:WHITE">CG4 Adeptness.''''' Skills with this new capability will be comparable to taming fire.<BR />
Specifically, risks that either involve or actually are:<BR />
CG4, its derivatives and brethren will introduce consequences just as transformative; we therefore note that:
CG4, its derivatives and brethren will introduce consequences just as transformative; we therefore note that:
* '''''CG4 CP's are dual use:''''' just like fire, CG4 will be used for both constructive as well as destructive purposes;  
* '''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:WHITE">CG4 CP's are Dual Use.</SPAN>''''' Just like fire, CG4 will be used for both constructive as well as destructive purposes;  
* '''''pre-literate vs. post-literate societies:''''' it is a powerful enabler for leveraging a collection of people toward forming a self sustaining, much more advanced social structures and organizational units;  
* '''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:WHITE">Pre-literate vs. Post-literate Societies.</SPAN>''''' it is a powerful enabler for leveraging a collection of people toward forming a self sustaining, much more advanced social structures and organizational units;  
* '''''new horizons:''''' CG4 will enable the recognition, articulation solutions to problems that less adept societies could not;
* '''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:WHITE">New Horizons.</SPAN>''''' CG4 will enable the recognition, articulation solutions to problems that less adept societies could not;
* '''''knife to a gun fight:''''' pre-CG4 social polities will be at a severe disadvantage comparable to the encounter between conquistadors vs indigenous New World natives;
* '''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:WHITE">On Bringing a Knife to a Gun Fight - Prospects.</SPAN>''''' pre-CG4 social polities will be at a severe disadvantage comparable to the encounter between conquistadors vs indigenous New World natives. At minimum we should expect to see CG4 class CP's being used as:
*'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:WHITE">Self Contained Tools.</SPAN>''''' An increasing recognition that CG4-Class tools can serve as capabilities in and of themselves; that this is evident can be seen when a query is posed to CG4 to translate a tract of text to another language, or provide a synopsis of it; these are all intrinsic capabilities of the tool... in and of itself;
*'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:WHITE">"Bridging" Mechanisms.</SPAN>''''' These will serve as CP connectors to other more specialized capabilities such as IBM Watson or CYC Corp's CYC common sense knowledge base system; it is important to keep clearly in mind that humans operate at ultra-low bandwidth when conversing; considerable information is embedded in context rather than explicitly stated; mechanism such as CG4 and its peers are capable of interacting at electronic speed; therefore can exchange enormous volumes of information almost instantly;
*'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:WHITE">Composite Cognitive Prosthetics.</SPAN>''''' Multiple instances configured to be autonomous agents based upon CG4 can be collected together to form "societies of mind"; initial versions might have many to tens of instances; later variations might range into the hundreds or thousands of agents; theoretically the only practical upper limit to how many agents can be connected together is limited by the physical hardware available at the time;
*'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:WHITE">Extended Composite CP Systems.</SPAN>''''' Marketplaces offering ad hoc or persistent composite capabilities will proliferate. These will offer features and capabilities that can only be guessed at.
<BR>
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[[File:TechUptake.jpg|350px|right|Technology Uptake]]
'''''<Span Style="COLOR:WHITE; BACKGROUND:TEAL">How Different Groups Can or Will Interact with this New Capability?</SPAN>''''' <BR><BR>
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Different groups will interact with this new capability using the primary interfacing mechanism known as prompting. Further interactions will be performed using fine-tuning.<BR><BR>We should probably see the uptake of CG4 by different groups track along the lines of users of earlier systems or tools such as video editing and casting on Youtube.com or presentation creation with a tool such as OBS-Studio. <BR>
The ability to use each of these use these tools requires competence and skill development. Increasing skill usually correlates to more sophisticated productions. <BR><BR>
The upshot being that they will not resemble the situation that we see when people acquire a vehicle driver's license. However more advanced skills may develop that do require licensing comparable to a person getting a commercial driver's license or a heavy equipment operator's license. In each of these cases additional training and certification is required before an individual is allowed to take control of these often powerful and frequently dangerous machines.
 
It is crucial to recognize that CG4 and its derivatives are remarkably powerful tools. But their responses are limited by the facility and imagination of the user. A good example of this is how a white board is used during a meeting or an educational session. In one case an instructor or professor might illustrate the basics of English grammar in terms of parts of speech like verbs, nouns adverbs and adjectives. A subsequent session later on the same day there may be an extended discussion or presentation on 11 dimensional quantum gravity theory. Each of these are very far from each other in terms of abstraction and the level of educational sophistication required to even understand the terminology. So it is also the case that with CG4 that the more sophisticated user will get more and better results from interacting with it.
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The development and uptake of artificial intelligence tools has been extremely rapid. We should expect to see at least two types of artificial intelligence approaches leading the charge... these will be characterized by:
 
**'''''generative AI systems''''' these will increase in their versatility and proficiency to interact with users with a wide range of knowledge and skills proficiency; during 2023 the industry witnessed the emergence of remarkably powerful tools that can accept a text input and generate remarkable, even photorealistic imagery of all kinds; this has included the creation of synthetic people; i.e. people who do not nor have ever existed; equally image to text systems have been able to accept a single image of a real life situation or person and describe in surprising detail the contents, elements and actions that obtain within an image; as of April 2024 one major player has announced the development of a text to video creation tool; a user can present this system (SORA and more recently VASA-1) with a single still image and using this as a baseline create a full motion video;
**'''''large language models (LLM's):''''' as of April 2024 the evidence is very clear that large language models (LLM's) are capable of perform such tasks as writing summaries, creating storylines and translations with remarkable proficiency; over time these will only get better;<BR><BR>
The result will be that there will be new winners and losers. Therefore we believe that the new wave of capabilities will impact different groups solve problems internally or how those groups interact with each other will follow one or another patterns with characteristics resembling:<BR><BR>
*'''''existing peer group competition:''''' within a group of actors whose objectives are the same or similar there will be a keen awareness of what peer or near peer rivals or competitors are doing; any move that imparts a competitive advantage will be closely observed; early adapters or innovators are likely to be the first ones to try out the new technology and assess its ability to be a good fit but one that remains within economical or budgetary considerations will be the actors that peer actors will watch with keen attention; that we should expect this will derive from the reality that within any group of actors with common limitations, objectives and resources the jockeying for advantage will be intense; an existing member in that group might make a move which others will study to see if it succeeds or fails;
*'''''existing clients, rivals, targets interactions:''''' we should expect to see the relationships between groups such as adversaries and targets to change in response to the relative ease or difficulty involved that an adversary such as a hacker might encounter when attempting to go after a heretofore easily attacked target; targets of prior cyber-hacking will avail themselves to increasingly sophisticated intrusion detection and prevention tools; this will make one groups (the attackers) efforts at suborning another groups (the targets) increasingly challenging and difficult; the result being that there will be a shift in focus from previously easy targets which have now levitated out of range to other easier to attack "low hanging fruit";
*'''''emergent new actors:''''' existing support actors that provide third-party add-on's will proliferate; these can already be seen in the context of add-on's or add-in's to all of the popular browsers such as Chrome or Microsoft Edge; these new actors will continue to provide augmentation capabilities to existing users but these new capabilities will be more focused on the development, deployment and maintenance of knowledge focused and intensive capabilities;
*'''''very rapid uptake:''''' or to put it another way... "the devil take the hindmost"; those groups that recognize the capabilities of these new tools will take them onboard and gain leverage in their respective spheres of activity;
*'''''zero/non-zero games prevail:''''' existing arrangement that involve competitive pressures will insure that any and all transactions whether zero sum or non-zero sum will remain; the time span between action and reaction will decrease however; also the level of sophistication of an action or a reaction will improve as well;
*'''''conformal interactions:''''' users will discover that their ability to interact with these new capabilities will be enhanced due to the ability to directly converse verbally with them; this has an upside but a downside as well; speaking comes naturally but is extremely low bandwidth; high and ultrahigh resolution graphics display capabilities coupled with verbal input and output will facilitate problem solving that more resembles "being in the zone"; i.e... the ability to remain focused on the salient and if necessary, crucial abstract elements involved in solving a problem;
*'''''teamwork:''''' the ability to create multi-agent autonomous systems will greatly enhance the problem solving ability of users who are versed in harnessing this new capability to their ongoing operations;
*'''''prompting, fine-tuning - resource focusing:''''' the ability to fine-tune and create ever more sophisticated prompts that drive the problem solving process forward will prove to be the make or break capabilities going forward for any groups or agents using this new technology; the more sophisticated users will use these tools themselves to refine the instructions (prompts) that are then feed back into them; the result will be logarithmically improved results;
*'''''Cambrian explosion:''''' looking forward a short distance we will see small to medium enterprises spring up that focus their efforts at fine-tuning and prompt-development that focus on very specific knowledge domains; these might be a specific but well known area of knowledge or might be specific to a specific company's products and services;
*'''''early warning:''''' the rapid pace of development and refinement will mean that within any given venue we should expect to see rapid to very rapid refinement as well as attrition of existing actors who were not able to maintain the pace of change; the ability to monitor developments closely and respond, if necessary, almost in real time will become crucial;
<!--'''''Uptake will be rapid.''''' Looking forward we should expect to see a rapid uptake of new knowledge intensive technology. Both generative artificial intelligence and large language models (LLMs) will continue to gain traction. Competitive pressures will drive this process forward. We should expect to see an increase in the frequency of reporting as new products and services become available. The release of ChatGPT reached over 100 million users within one month of its public release. Looking forward we should expect to see the process repeat.<BR>
A rapid pace of adaptation will resemble the patterns seen when new technologies were introduced in recent times. We should expect to see a pattern emerge that reveals a range of perception. This pattern will resemble a standard bell shaped curve. As in prior new technology breakthroughs, we should expect to see the same range of innovators to laggards.<BR>
Those actors who will gain the first-mover advantage will be highly proficient in prompting and fine-tuning.<BR>
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'''''New Game (Zero, Non-Zero Sum) but on Steroids.''''' We should expect to see the same or similar patterns of interaction between the set of actors that know about this technology and who acquire it. Therefore in cases where there were competitive pressures such as in the entertainment industry we might see screen writers augmenting their writing skills by using a tool such as a CG4 or its later incarnations. In the case of cybersecurity we should see increasingly sophisticated intrusion attempts. The increase in the sophistication of attacks will inevitably lead to increasingly sophisticated detection and prevention tools. In short... it will be the same old story, the same old song. It will just happen far more quickly.<BR>
'''''The New "ABC's". Prompting, Super-Prompting and Fine-Tuning.''''' Actors who will gain maximum benefit will combine prompting and fine-tuning with the creation of autonomous agents. Tool kits or ensembles of tools will emerge that will facilitate the ability to enable multiple instances of an AI system to interact and communicate with it siblings.<BR>
'''''CP4 supported Prompt Refinement.''''' Recent research efforts have demonstrated that a CP4 system can be directed to assist in the refinement of prompts which are then applied back to itself for further refinement. This recursive refinement capability means that stunningly focused queries will be possible when querying a CP4 type system.<BR>
'''''Sudden Death.''''' Those lacking in prompting and fine-tuning capabilities will be quickly marginalized and left behind.<BR>
For purposes of simplicity we refer to these artificial intelligence systems regardless of whether they are based upon LLM’s, generative, Convolutional, recursive or adversarial neural networks as cognitive prosthetics (CP’s). This is because these tools are remarkably capable at demonstrating extraordinary competence in specific skill areas they are still not demonstrably conscious and possess no sentience or intentionality.<BR>
'''''Warp Speed Evolution.''''' The sophistication will be exhibited will be startling. Current interface technology has reached a stunning point of sophistication. This rapid advance has been driven by high and very high resolution displays. The rapid advance in speech recognition and generation have progressed to the point that is very difficult if not impossible to determine if one is conversing with a human or a synthetic system. When these are combined the ability to engage deeply in the cognitive exploration or problem solving process will take a leap forward. Those actors capable of synthesizing various of these components together will be the winners in the emerging high speed pace of new technological innovation.<BR>
'''''Display Technology.''''' Ever increasing resolution in our display devices will further drive forward the use of CP4 type systems that are integrated with high and ultra-high definition and resolution.<BR>
'''''T2S-S2T.''''' Current voice synthesis systems are of such sophistication that they can not be distinguished from an actual human speaker. The ability of speech to text systems means in complementary fashion that we will be able interact and converse with these new systems simply by talking. This has both positive and negative ramifications. <BR>
'''''Positive.''''' On the positive side it means that fully lifelike imagery will become the new standard when viewing any process that can be imagined. By being able to have a very large display a sophisticated user will be able to partition areas of a screen that represent different levels of abstraction or levels of detail for selected aspects of a process or service under development. <BR>
'''''Negative.''''' On the other side interacting with these systems using voice input or output means that ultra low bandwidth input or output of information will continue. Entirely new modalities of interacting with these systems will emerge that enable this bandwidth bottleneck to be bypassed.<BR>
'''''Display.''''' By way of example, current 8K resolution displays are available. They currently reside at the high end price range. Therefore only agents and actors that can subsume this cost will be the early adaptors. In the offing are 16k resolution devices. A number of technology companies have demonstrated 32K resolution devices. These currently tend to be fairly large and require a wall to mount them on. Over time, market forces will drive the costs of these much more advanced display systems down.<BR>
'''''Voice Technology''''' – both speech recognition and generation have also reached a remarkably high level of sophistication. When these are combined with point whereby superseding it would require high definition holography. <BR>
'''''Cambrian Explosion.''''' Functionality, new capabilities emerge that will resemble the Cambrian era. We should expect to see new products and services wherein suppliers will mix and match multiple LLM's with complementary skills. Conversely we should also expect to see composite systems with skill groups that exhibit divergent capabilities. the numbers of knowledge sources is currently not known and can only be inferred. <BR>
'''''Zero Sum.''''' This means that there is an implicit recognition that all human commerce involves game-like transactional structures. These can be either zero sum games or non-zero sum games.<BR>
'''''Open Sources.''''' The HuggingFace website is a repository of open sources LLM datasets; these can be downloaded at not cost and used for any purpose.<BR>
'''''Agents.''''' As of April 2024 agent technology has become well recognized and accepted. Tools will continue to facilitate he creation of composite cognitive prosthetic (CP's). The ability to construct large composite systems. The range of variability will be very large due to the fact that it will be possible to connect any CP to any number of other homogeneous or heterogeneous system instance.<BR>
 
<!--
'''''<Span Style="COLOR:WHITE; BACKGROUND:BLUE">Prompting.</SPAN>'''''<BR>
The primary approach to accessing CG4's functionality is via prompting. Prompting means providing instructions to the CG4 system that the user wants it to perform. Earlier versions of CG4 (e.g. CG3 or CG3.5) only allowed smaller token limits to be used when providing a prompt. More recently this limit has been increased to 128K tokens. The effect of having a wider token size means that more context can be provided that will help steer the query in the direction that the user wishes.
 
Meanwhile instructions can be collected together such that multiple actions are taken when pursuing a goal. <BR> Typically a simple interaction will reflect a direct linear form of interaction, i.e. what is called input-output. A user issues a simple query to the system and a direct output is provided as a result. Case in point would be the query of<BR>
''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE">how many senators are there in the US Senate?</SPAN>''.<BR> The system will promptly provide the user with the correct answer of<BR>
''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE">by law, there are now 100 US Senators</SPAN>''. <BR>
A more elaborate form of prompting means to instruct the system with what is called a "chain of thought" prompt. In this case the user's prompt consists of one or more logical syllogisms for it to use in arriving at an answer. For instance a simple chain of thought query might go as follows:<BR>
'''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE">Bob bought a loaf of bread on Monday.</SPAN>'''<BR>
'''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE">Bread will remain fresh for about one day.</SPAN>'''<BR>
'''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE">Today is Thursday.</SPAN>'''<BR>
'''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE">Is it likely that Bob's loaf of bread is still fresh.</SPAN>'''<BR>
The CG4 system will most likely respond with the answer of<BR>
'''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE">No.</SPAN>'''<BR> Or... <BR>'''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE">Bob's bread is probably no longer fresh.</SPAN>'''<BR><BR>
It is exactly because the nature of this knowledge  system is such that the more specific and precise the prompt can be the better the response that is delivered can be.<BR><BR>
This means that the ability to focus ones prompting skills will become central going forward.
Which therefor means that controlling and interacting with CG4 will vary dramatically across the universe of CG4 users. By extension, it means that there are going to be some groups of users whose benefit in using CG4 will far outweigh the benefit derived by less sophisticated prompt experts. Using  this as the picture going forward we might think of using CG4 something along the lines of mastering a very sophisticated 3D printing device... or a highly sophisticated numerical controlled machining (NCM) environment. <BR>
So the more versed and content the prompt source is the more sophisticated the output will be. This further suggests that new educational venues that train prospective or current users in how to derive maximum benefit from the system. <BR>
Another way to view the usage of CG4 and its cousins going forward might be comparable to acquiring a pilot's license. On the one end one can become a competent pilot by acquiring their pilot license by training on a small single engine aircraft such as a Cessna or Beechcraft airplane. In order to advance to a more capable aircraft such as as Boeing 777 or Airbus 380 will require considerably greater training, education and actual flight time with these far larger and more sophisticated aircraft.
 
This is because of the results being published on the rapid evolution of prompting approaches. Prompting has evolved very quickly from simple input-output prompting to the more advanced methods such as forest of thought. A cursory exploration of the prompting process will show that it is possible to create conditional cognitive pathways for a given interrogation of the knowledge base via a prompt structure. This means that the line of reasoning being followed by an instance of CG4 can be programmatically controlled. Further the ability to iteratively develop an increasingly more powerful prompt using CGR4 itself means that highly specialized and powerful prompting will set of an arms race of knowledge base creation and refinement. The categories that follow provide a short introduction of the way forward.<BR>
'''''<Span Style="COLOR:WHITE; BACKGROUND:BLUE">Input-Output</SPAN>'''''<BR> This entails presenting the system with a simple question and accepting a simple response. An example might be: "what day of the week was it on April 15th, 2009?"<BR>
'''''<Span Style="COLOR:WHITE; BACKGROUND:BLUE">Chain of Thoughts</SPAN>'''''<BR> In this approach the user might provide qualifying conditions that focus the system on solving a particular logical problem such as the one indicated above regarding Bob's bread.<BR>
'''''<Span Style="COLOR:WHITE; BACKGROUND:BLUE">Self Consistency</SPAN>'''''<BR>
'''''<Span Style="COLOR:WHITE; BACKGROUND:BLUE">Tree of Thoughts</SPAN>'''''<BR>
'''''<Span Style="COLOR:WHITE; BACKGROUND:BLUE">Forest of Thoughts</SPAN>'''''<BR>
'''''<Span Style="COLOR:WHITE; BACKGROUND:BLUE">Super Prompting</SPAN>'''''<BR>
In this setting the user is posing a number of qualifying prompting statements to the system. These are collected together in such a way that they provide very specific logical and contextual constraints upon the reasoning pathway that the user wishes to pursue. A super prompt of this category might direct the CG4 system to assume the role of an individual with a particular point of view or area of expertise. One case in point is where the user wishes to generate a story line for a novel or an article. In this case they might issue the instruction that "you are an expert at writing short newspaper or magazine articles for National Geographic Magazine, or the prestigious journal Nature, or Cell. <BR><BR>In this case the user has provided important context to the CG4 system that it should frame its responses using the contextual background of an individual who is very well versed in various areas of the natural sciences. This would be in contrast to an individual who was well versed in repairing for instance an ensemble of numerical controlled machining tools.<BR><BR>
'''''<Span Style="COLOR:WHITE; BACKGROUND:BLUE">Direct Access.</SPAN>'''''<BR><BR>
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'''''<Span Style="COLOR:WHITE; BACKGROUND:BLUE">Access - Remote or Local.</SPAN>'''''<BR>
A prospective actor interested in developing proficiency with CG4 can interact with the system via an account with OpenAI. Either access via online access to the OpenAI servers or access to CG4 functionality via one's own web site are possible.<BR>
Local access is possible by using a reduced version ofCGR4 on one's own computing environment.<BR>
'''''<Span Style="COLOR:WHITE; BACKGROUND:BLUE">Free Account.</SPAN>''''' Currently CG4 can be accessed at not cost. However limitations apply. Using the free access modality one can develop one's skill at formulating prompts. At the current time, prompts and prompting are the primary means of accessing and interacting with CG4. However like any new software tool with considerable power and capability the more proficient the user is at formulating prompts the higher the quality of the results that will be available.<BR>
'''''<Span Style="COLOR:WHITE; BACKGROUND:BLUE">Paid Account.</SPAN>'''''
Anyone interested in exploring the capabilities of CG4 can sign up with an account. By virtue of having an account a user will have access to a broader range of possibilities and performance that are not available to those using the free access pathway. An extended subscription pathway is available wherein a second user can access an account as a team member. <BR>
'''''<Span Style="COLOR:WHITE; BACKGROUND:BLUE">Local Access.</SPAN>''''' There will be cases wherein a user might want to explore how to capitalize on CG4's capabilities but may have data that may be categorized as private. As such the possibility that it might become publicly accessible is ruled out. The way to work around this problem is to use a local version of CG4 that runs on one's own equipment. There are several tools that can be used to accomplish this objective. These include GPG4ALL, PrivateGPT and H2O.<BR>
The GPT4ALL is the simplest and most direct way of acquiring familiarity with an LLM and developing proficiency in controlling it. GPT4ALL can be downloaded at not cost to one's own Windows or Apple environment, installed and activated. This is open source software and therefore expect that there will be small inconsistencies in the setup process. <BR>PrivateGPT is a comparable open source LLM. It is a somewhat more sophisticated tool. It also requires considerable technical skill. It can be brought up on one's own environment but doing so requires being versed in the world of UNIX commands.<BR> H20 is another relatively sophisticated tool. It also requires considerable technical competence in order to bring it up to operational status. <BR>
'''''<Span Style="COLOR:WHITE; BACKGROUND:BLUE">GPT4ALL.</SPAN>'''''<BR>
'''''<Span Style="COLOR:WHITE; BACKGROUND:BLUE">PrivateGPT.</SPAN>'''''<BR>
'''''<Span Style="COLOR:WHITE; BACKGROUND:BLUE">H2O.</SPAN>'''''<BR>
'''''<Span Style="COLOR:WHITE; BACKGROUND:BLUE">Remote Access.</SPAN>'''''<BR>
'''''<Span Style="COLOR:WHITE; BACKGROUND:BLUE">User Website.</SPAN>''''' Should one prefer to enable access to CG4 via one's own website there are tools available that can enable this objective. The basic elements that are needed are a) one's own website, b) an account with CG4, c) two user interface tools that facilitate and mediate communications between the user's website and one's account on OpenAI.<BR>
These include: Tool-X, Tool-Y. One then uses these tools to prepare the communications channel from one's web site to one's account with OpenAI. <BR>
'''''<Span Style="COLOR:WHITE; BACKGROUND:BLUE">Fine-Tuning.</SPAN>''''' Where that technology enabled them to leverage their existing competitive position then they were able to gain advantage by improving their ability to occupy their particular market position or improve their ability to deliver results as a result of improved operational efficiency. <BR>
We should expect to see the same process play out with CP type capabilities. In order to make this less theoretical and more concrete a review of the existing tools that are now available will help put this perspective in context. When we review landscape of tools several come immediately to the fore. These include several LLM's as well as several GAN based systems. The LLM's are led currently (March 2024) by Google and Microsoft and FaceBook. <BR>
'''''Google''''' is the umbrella organization under which '''''[https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Google_DeepMind DeepMind]''''' operates.<BR>
'''''Microsoft - VASA''''' is the umbrella organization under which '''''[https://www.wikiwand.com/en/OpenAI OpenAI]''''' operates.<BR>
'''''Meta (FaceBook)''''' is the umbrella organization under which '''''[https://www.wikiwand.com/en/OpenAI LLama]''''' operates.<BR><BR>
In the case of Google we find DeepMind at the forefront of artificial intelligence tools. In the case Microsoft we find OpenAI establishing a powerful presence in the AI marketplace with its (formerly) open source ChatGPT4 system. In the case of Meta (FaceBook) we find their Llama 2 system. Another contender to be considered is '''''Anthropomorphic.''''' In each case these offerings that these enterprises offer enable a knowledgeable user to access and interact with remarkably powerful AI systems.<BR>
GAN based systems (Generative Adversarial Networks) include Dall-E and MidJourney. These powerful tools enable a user to provide a text prompt that is then used to generate a visual representation based upon the terms and parameters that they user provides. <BR>
'''''Sora.''''' In Feb. 2024 OpenAI has announced its Sora system which offers a user the ability to enter a text prompt and receive a stunningly lifelike three dimensional moving video. Currently there is a time limit for the duration of the video which is about sixty seconds. Going forward this will increase. Yet even with Sora's capabilities as they are currently understood we see an AI system that is capable of generating entirely lifelike output that is indistinguishable to the average observer from actual reality.<BR>
In order to get some sense of the power of these tools can be facilitated if the user develops some familiarity with how to interact with them. Currently there are several ways in which to accomplish this. An avenue of choice is to use a ChatGPT-type capability that can be operated on one's own local machine. There are several tools that enable this. <BR><BR>
These include <BR>
'''''GPT4All''''', '''''PrivateGPT''''' and '''''H2O'''''. The knowledgeable user can also facilitate access to their personal website and have ChatGPT4 access the website. A user is then able to interact with ChatGPT from the perspective of an individual web site. <BR>
If we take the path of least resistance then the GPT4All is the choice of a pathway forward. It can operate on both a Windows or an Apple machine. It is significantly easier to install and get operating.<BR>
PrivateGPT requires significantly more technical skill in bringing online. It can be downloaded both to Windows or Apple environments. But does require technical competence to get working. The H20 is also not straightforward in terms of activating. <BR><BR>
By way of example we include a partial printout of a dialog between GPT4All and a user '''''(TBD)'''''. Using this approach a prospective researcher or user can gain insight into how prompting works and how to improve performance via fine-tuning.
*'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:WHITE">Innovators vs Laggards.</SPAN>''''' It is not uncommon to encounter a friend, family member or colleague who is extremely adept at using the latest features of a smart phone or pad type computer; while on the other hand there are others who are baffled by the variety of features available on a common Android or iPhone and limit their usage to managing voice or text interactions; beyond that they basically waste the other 90%+ of the device's capabilities;
*'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:WHITE">Selective Usage.</SPAN>''''' There are also those who find that their "smart" device can do more than send or receive communications but can perform many other capabilities; as a typical user might explore and employ those that are of greatest utility to themselves; but this simply reconfirms that these are actually general purpose computers; they simply have no moving parts, run on batteries and collapse the user interface onto a small color screen;
*'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:WHITE">New Day Same Routine.</SPAN>''''' We should expect to see the same pattern repeat; those who are motivated to explore the new capabilities will excel at leveraging its capabilities; those who do not will remain perpetually playing catch up;
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[[File:CG400.jpg|400px|right|Race To The Top]]
'''''<Span Style="COLOR:WHITE; BACKGROUND:TEAL">How Will or Can They Respond to its Existence and Presence.</SPAN>''''' Recent studies have made plain that a powerful new technology will be adapted in record time if it is demonstrably a powerful leveraging tool; evidence of this can be seen in how quickly it is adapted.
*'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:WHITE">The CG4 "Uptake Curve".</SPAN>''''' CG4 reached over one million users in a matter of days.
*'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:WHITE">Within Less Than Two Months.</SPAN>''''' CG4 had reached 100 million users worldwide. This rapid uptake pace suggests that momentum has built that will drive further uptake by those less inclined to vigilance about the rapid pace of change that this technology brings;
*'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:WHITE">New Capabilities.</SPAN>''''' An entire library of CG4 material has sprung into existence on how to use create new applications and extensions;
'''''<Span Style="COLOR:WHITE; BACKGROUND:TEAL">How will they be affected by this new capability.</SPAN>'''''
*'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:WHITE">Personalized Tutors.</SPAN>''''' CG4 provides a user with the ability to pose remarkably sophisticated questions on a broad range of topics; where the acquisition of a new skill or area of expertise is envisioned it is capable of creating a study guide with a complete syllabus that provides a pathway from even the most superficial grasp of a topic to its most advanced areas;
*'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:WHITE">Interactive Audio Books.</SPAN>''''' Audio books will become passé; instead it will become preferable to be able to have a conversation with the book itself; were one to study the works of Konrad Nietzsche one would instead be able to effectively converse or otherwise "talk" with Nietzsche and discuss the various topics that the actual philosopher entertained when writing his works; we should expect to see variations on this capability wherein several legacy experts simulacra were instantiated and communications between them or existent users was enabled; a case in point might be enabling a conversation between Frank Herbert (author of Dune), Alan Watts and for instance, Jordan Peterson; a user initiating a session such as this would experience the two instances interacting and discussing with each other points of clarification; clearly even larger sets of knowledge areas can be brought to bear as well;
*'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:WHITE">Cross-Referenced Expertise</SPAN>''''' Multiple insights will become available within a single interactive session; for instance were one to study the topic of Stoicism as described by Epictetus and his peers as described, one might be able to re-represent his insights into a compact symbolic logic representation; such a representation structure might be used to provide insight on family or personal matters by individuals trained as sociologists or psychotherapists; for a given psychotherapeutic setting, several points of view might be offered on a specific psychological issue; one perspective might derive from a Jungian approach to the problem; another perspective might derive from a Berne approach (transactional analysis); these two perspectives might "discuss and debate" with each other their respective positions and subsequently offer their recommendations on how to proceed;
[[File:UptakeSpread.jpg|500px|right|Groups]]
*'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:WHITE">Individualized Advisors (professional and life coaches).</SPAN>''''' Individuals who aspire to the top ranks incorporations have come to recognize that navigating a successful path to the top requires a range of skills including leadership, communication and narrative story telling. It is uncommon to find the full set of these skills in any specific individual. Enabling access to the insights of experts in each of these areas will become more accessible and available.
*'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:WHITE">Enhanced Collaborative Problem Solving.</SPAN>''''' Existing WebEx, Skype or Zoom teleconferencing have become common in enabling voice and video online and real time discussion; stepping into a higher dimension we should expect to see individuals come to the fore each with their individualized CP tool set and offer access to their peer experts;
*'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:WHITE">Emergence of marketplaces for novel objects, products and services.''''' CG4 class CP's are already spawning new products and services; one case in point can be seen with the availability of organizations offering vector database services to host extended memory for LLM's; the existing CG4 offers a broad range and depth of capability; for specific purposes however fine tuning is indicated; looking forward a short way down the road we should expect to see organizations offering their services or tools that facilitate the fine tuning task; the ability to fine tune a LLM will mean that there will be an explosion in the range, sophistication and depth of capability of LLM based tools;
*'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:WHITE">Novel and Inexplicable Disruptions</SPAN>''''' Of service providers such as wireless or other online capabilities. The recent ransom-ware attacked that happened in Las Vegas in the US underscore the reality of malicious use of netcentric tools as weapons; as netcentric attacks were beginning to ramp up several years ago a favorite vector of attack was to use the distributed denial of service (DDOS) approach; in this approach hundreds or thousands of PC's were redirected to request a response to a specific web server; the requests were repeated endlessly until the hosting server was overwhelmed and was unable to respond; the result was that the website timed out; it became inaccessible; a variation on this approach can be used with comparable tools but targeted in a coordinated fashion at mobile phones; the result can be a combination traffic management attack combined with mobile phone attacks; that this is plausible is corroborated by the fact that users of such services as Tik Tok are able to geolocate a specific individuals location as well as launch other forms of disruption to that individual's mobile phone; were many individuals phones to be used as an attack vector then many people could find themselves trapped in a traffic gridlock and unable to reach others; the Israeli Pegasus tool has made very clear that it is fully capable of seizing control of any mobile phone on the planet;
*'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:WHITE">High Risk/Payoff Early Adapters.</SPAN>''''' The early adaptors will explore the new terrain and gain the advantages that those who have mapped out the advantageous terrain is relative to the pitfalls. We should see a proliferation of tools that facilitate fine tuning, simplification of incorporation of vector databases that dramatically expand on a CP's ability to access a specific domain or set of knowledge domains.
'''''<Span Style="COLOR:WHITE; BACKGROUND:TEAL">Might the various access modalities that are available to one group have positive or negative implications for other groups.</SPAN>'''''
*'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:WHITE">Early vs. Late Adapters.''''' This pattern appears to repeat itself; therefore we should expect to see the same thing happen; those who can leverage these capabilities will define the new high ground; the rest will play catch up; or simply be left behind "in the past";
*'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:WHITE">Increasingly Chaotic Anecdotal Realities.</SPAN>''''' Further fragmentation appears to be emerging as the new normal; deep fake news reports, conspiracy theories are likely to abound; new services will emerge comparable to '''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:YELLOW">[https://ground.news/ Ground News]</SPAN>''''' wherein reporting sources will be ranked in terms of bias and reliability.
*'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:WHITE">Phenotypical Bifurcation.<SPAN>''''' Currently the perceptible difference between individuals who are adept with a new technology vs. those who are not is typically not obvious; going forward the differences may remain somewhat obscure but the distance between the two categories are likely to widen to the point that one might as well identify the one group - early adapters and innovators as being members of a different phenotype compared to those who are slow to adapt; with the former group becoming adept at navigating the new reality in effect leaving the latter group to navigate with poor dexterity;
*'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:WHITE">Skills Explosion - Generalists & Specialists.</SPAN>''''' New skill collection will emerge with the new environment; the explosion of the World Wide Web led to new categories of individual who were adept at web site creation, with the vast expansion of web sites the need for search emerged which led to organizations that organized and indexed the population of existing and new web sites; these refined their reason for existence by ranking and thereby promoting various sites; this led to the entirely new skill of search engine optimization (SEO); myriad new services have emerged such as virtual private networking, ad blocking and automatic notifications; the new environment will experience a comparable emergence of specialist skills that will facilitate usage of this new "fire";
 
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'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLU; BACKGROUND:YELLOW">[https://arguably.io/User:Darwin2049/chatgpt4_omega_interface Interface: Cases, Details]'''''
 
 
'''''Interface - Question.''''' The question as posed is to answer is '''''how will differing groups or communities make use of this new technology.''''' As in, how might one group intrinsically gain new advantage relative to others. In the case of zero sum or non-zero sum situations how might this technology confer advantage (or disadvantage) by one group relative to others. <BR>
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'''''Interface - Answer.''''' Large Language Models represent a dramatic expansion of the possible. Entirely new sets of possibilities are emerging as a result. Answering the question of how different groups will use this new technology and how they will gain or lose advantage will depend upon how they navigate their way into this new realm. As of early 2024 there were several pathways forward. These included:
*'''''Prompt Engineering.'''''
*'''''Super-Prompting.'''''
*'''''Fine Tuning.'''''
*'''''Targeted Tools and Uses.'''''
*'''''Autonomous Agent Tools.'''''
 
'''''Cognitive Prosthetics.''''' In order to provide context it might be helpful to consider that the world has seen massive advances in technology, science, industry and commerce as a result of the hardware and software tools that we have come to take for granted. The include such commonly available tools as Microsoft Office, image editing, video construction and many other highly specialized software tools. These tools enable the design and creation of incredibly sophisticated products such as massive ocean cruse liners as well as amazingly sophisticated nuclear powered submarines. In all cases these tools typically have specialized access mechanisms. They typically require hours to days of specialized training to become conversant in their use. Then weeks or months of hands on practice to develop expertise and competence. <BR>
 
'''''Advanced Cognitive Prosthetics (APCs - First Generation).''''' This latest generation of tools should be considered as representing advanced cognitive prosthetics. This is because the means of access allows for direct verbal interaction and communication. At face value this might seem like a huge leap. However it must be kept in mind that in order to capitalize on systems of this order of sophistication the level of sophistication of the user is crucial. Their ability to fully leverage the power of these systems is grounded on the fact that they possess deep understanding of what the system is capable of. The converse side of the equation is the reality that verbal communication is inherently low bandwidth. Despite that being the case the availability of a conversational ACP means that new possibilities for exploring the search for solutions is now at another level.
 
'''''Advanced Cognitive Prosthetics (APCs Second Generation).''''' Large Language Models (LLM’s) such as ChatGPT4, LLAMA or DeepMind are software tools that function as powerful prosthetics. They bear resemble to the most sophisticated 3D printer or CRISPR-CAS13 genomic editing tool. They impart unheard of versatility and power to a competent user. Therefore we view LLM’s and their peers are advanced cognitive prosthetics (ACP’s). We  expect to see them being used to further enhance '''''already existing processes or tasks''''' in ways that have heretofore not been imagined.<BR>
 
'''''Advanced Conformal Cognitive Prosthetics (ACCP).''''' The current generation of LLM’s tools that enhance existing cognitive functioning and task completion in ways that are very comparable to having a knowledgeable assistant in performing an already known or defined task.<BR>
 
In this view a ACP's traits could be viewed from the perspective of a surgeon's glove. In this case it would be like enhancing the glove with a variety of unobtrusively incorporated supporting tools. Continuing with this metaphor one might imagine that the fabric of the glove has a built in scalpel, light, laser, magnifying lens, clamps and suturing tools.<BR>
 
Keeping the reality of different groups gaining or losing advantage we expect that existent interactions between varying communities will continue as before. The sophistication and pace of exchange will vary however.<BR>
 
'''''New Day Same Problem.''''' Different groups will seize this new technology and search for ways in which to further their existing positions. This means that existing operational or transactional approaches will be preserved but modified as this new technology’s new capabilities and limitations become increasingly evident.<BR>
 
'''''Prompt Engineering.''''' Repeated use of LLM has placed focus on the crucial role of being able to pose useful queries to the system. LLM's possess a great deal of knowledge that is generally opaque to a user. The specific forms of response or knowledge is intrinsically present in the system however eliciting relevant responses that illuminate that knowledge is challenging. Therefore we are seeing a rise in the category of users or super-users who construct highly focused prompts for specific or broad use.
 
'''''Domain Query Experts.''''' Prompt Engineering has already revealed an iteration when it comes to accessing and using a LLM. In the case of broad availability of open source LLM's several groups have emerged who place focus on formulating highly effective prompts. These prompts are described as being "Super Prompts". Typically these '''''Super Prompts''''' incorporate multiple refinement structures that direct the LLM to perform a query in highly sophisticated ways. Early prompts used what have been called '''''[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kar2qfLDQ2c chain of thought]''''' approaches. <BR>
 
'''''[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ut5kp56wW_4 A tree of thought]''''' is a more powerful form of prompting. It enables more sophisticated queries to be posed to an LLM. With the tree of thought a prompt would direct the LLM to perform its functioning in a manner that resulted in parallel actions being executed against the LLM.<BR>
 
'''''[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y6SVA3aAfco forest of thought]''''' are even more powerful querying techniques that facilitate deeper access into the LLM's capabilities.
 
'''''[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R3KgD86VRzc LangChain.]''''' This [https://www.wikiwand.com/en/LangChain is a development framework] that a very knowledgeable software developer would use to construct domain or task specific tools that use an LLM as a core element.
 
 
Recent developments have emerged that place focus on providing very sharp and targeted queries to a LLM. This new approach is characterized by what are known as Super Prompts. In this case a prompt is constructed
 
'''''Darwinian Escalation Ladder.''''' This will prove to be a continuing journey. This new technology is self replenishing and self extensible. Therefore answering the question of how different groups will interact as the modalities of interaction will constantly change.<BR>
 
'''''Current Snapshot.''''' Therefore at most answering this question can only be tentative and iterative. Any current characterization of how individuals or groups will use this new technology can only be momentary. Subsequent characterizations will require modification from insights that will be refined and developed over time.<BR>
 
'''''Known.''''' Therefore in order to move forward suggests approaching this question from a relatively obtuse starting point. By this we mean that the means of using or sharpening and focusing on the ability of this capability over time. <BR>
 
'''''By way of example.''''' These fall into a small group that suggest how it is currently being used. What can immediately be identified are the means whereby a LLM is initially trained. Subsequent iterations of use will reveal that generic LLM’s can have their performance improved. There are several means wherein further performance improvements are suggested by several venues. These arise as a result of how LLM’s function and are brought forward for broad or general use.<BR>
 
'''''Categories.''''' In subsequent sections of this document the reader will find a short list of known areas or activities which are known to be impacted by advances in the world of CP’s. <BR>
 
* Teaching/Training/Advising/Entertaining.<BR>
* Informing/Persuading.<BR>
* '''''[https://infranodus.com/dirac2049/TheoryOfMind00?background=dark&show_analytics=1&most_influential=bc2&maxnodes=150&labelsize=proportional&edgestype=line&drawedges=true&drawnodes=true&labelsizeratio=2&dynamic=highlight&cutgraph=1&selected=highlight&stopwords=task+gpt+belief+model+prompt+bag+language&keywords=unexpected+correctly+impute+content Analysis].'''''
* Summarizing.<BR>
* Illuminating/Discovering.<BR>
* '''''[https://cybermap.kaspersky.com/ Subverting/Suborning/Disabling]''''' This is a live map of world wide net-centric threats. Looking forward we would expect to see the frequency and sophistication of these attacks to increase pace and tempo.
* '''''[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sXqsPlnTkQU Malicious]''''' Dual use ACP tools will be used for hacking or other forms of net-centric attacks.


At minimum we should expect to see CG4 class CP's being used as:
'''''Examples.''''' Cases already exist where an existing trade, skill or profession have large populations of individuals who use their skills in these areas. <BR> 
*'''''self contained tools:''''' an increasing recognition that CG4-Class tools can serve as capabilities in and of themselves
*'''''interface mechanisms:''''' and or they can serve as an intelligence connector to other more specialized capabilities such as IBM Watson or CYC Corp's CYC common sense knowledge base system;
*'''''composite cognitive prosthetics:''''' multiple instances configured to be autonomous agents based upon CG4 can be collected together to form "societies of mind; initial versions might have many to tens of instances; later variations might range into the hundreds or thousands of agents"
*'''''extended composite CP systems:''''' marketplaces offering ad hoc or persistent composite capabilities will proliferate; these will offer features and capabilities that can only be guessed at;


[[File:TechUptake.jpg|550px|left|Uptake]]
'''''Local/Sequestered GPT Instances.'''''
*'''''<Span Style="COLOR:WHITE; BACKGROUND:TEAL">how different groups can or will interact with this new capability?</SPAN>'''''
* '''''[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DDfUoQWnrfM GPT4All].'''''
We should expect to see a broad based transformation in how different groups will be able to interact with each other. More concretely this means that groups that possess the skills and motivation to use the new capabilities will be able to simplify their interaction and reduce "friction" that might otherwise exist due to inability to interact or interpret each others terminology, conceptual framework or objectives. Another very concrete outcome means that individual with shared or otherwise common interests that are operating in different societies might heretofore encounter language barriers. The CG4 ability to render translations means that there will be far greater ability to interact with a larger population of like-minded groups and organizations worldwide.
* '''''[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XFiof0V3nhA PrivateGPT].'''''
*'''''<Span Style="COLOR:WHITE; BACKGROUND:TEAL">how will or can they respond to its existence and presence?</SPAN>''''' Recent studies have made plain that a powerful new technology will be adapted in record time if it is demonstrably a powerful leveraging tool; evidence of this can be seen in:
* '''''[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gx1TDrHFABo H2O].'''''
**the CG4 "uptake curve": CG4 reached over one million users in a matter of days;
* '''''[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Et-HZDxr72k Run GPT from your own site].'''''
**within less than two months it had reached 100 million;  
**a entire library of CG4 material has sprung into existence on how to use create new applications and extensions;
*'''''<Span Style="COLOR:WHITE; BACKGROUND:TEAL">how will they be affected by this new capability;</SPAN>'''''  
**'''''personalized tutors:''''' the existing CG4 provides a user with the ability to pose remarkably sophisticated questions on a broad range of topics; where the acquisition of a new skill or area of expertise is envisioned it is capable of creating a study guide with a complete syllabus that provides a pathway from even the most superficial grasp of a topic to its most advanced areas;
**'''''interactive audio books:''''' audio books will become passé; instead it will become preferable to be able to have a conversation with the book itself; were one to study the works of Konrad Nietzsche one would instead be able to effectively converse or otherwise "talk" with Nietzsche and discuss the various topics that the actual philosopher entertained when writing his works; we should expect to see variations on this capability wherein several legacy experts simulacra were instantiated and communications between them or existent users was enabled; a case in point might be enabling a conversation between Frank Herbert (author of Dune), Alan Watts and for instance, Jordan Peterson; a user initiating a session such as this would experience the two instances interacting and discussing with each other points of clarification; clearly even larger sets of knowledge areas can be brought to bear as well;
<!-- [[File:UptakeSpread.jpg|500px|right|Groups]] -->
**'''''cross-referenced expertise''''' multiple insights will become available within a single interactive session; for instance were one to study the topic of Stoicism as described by Epictetus and his peers as described, one might be able to re-represent his insights into a compact symbolic logic representation; such a representation structure might be used to provide insight on family or personal matters by individuals trained as sociologists or psychotherapists;
**'''''individualized advisors (professional and life coaches);'''''Individuals who aspire to the top ranks incorporations have come to recognize that navigating a successful path to the top requires a range of skills including leadership, communication and narrative story telling; it is not common to find the full set of these skills in any specific individual; being able to access the insights of experts in each of these areas will become more accessible and available;
[[File:UptakeSpread.jpg|500px|right|Groups]]
**'''''enhanced collaborative problem solving;''''' existing WebEx, Skype or Zoom teleconferencing have become common in enabling voice and video online and real time discussion; stepping into a higher dimension we should expect to see individuals come to the fore each with their individualized CP tool set and offer access to their peer experts;
**'''''emergence of marketplaces for novel objects, products and services:''''' CG4 class CP's are already spawning new products and services; one case in point can be seen with the availability of organizations offering vector database services to host extended memory for LLM's; the existing CG4 offers a broad range and depth of capability; for specific purposes however fine tuning is indicated; looking forward a short way down the road we should expect to see organizations offering their services or tools that facilitate the fine tuning task; the ability to fine tune a LLM will mean that there will be an explosion in the range, sophistication and depth of capability of LLM based tools;
**'''''novel and inexplicable disruptions of service providers such as wireless or other online capabilities:'''''
**'''''high risk/payoff early adapters:''''' the early adaptors will explore the new terrain and gain the advantages that those who have mapped out the advantageous terrain is relative to the pitfalls. We should see a proliferation of tools that facilitate fine tuning, simplification of incorporation of vector databases that dramatically expand on a CP's ability to access a specific domain or set of knowledge domains.


*'''''<Span Style="COLOR:WHITE; BACKGROUND:TEAL">might the various access modalities that are available to one group have positive or negative implications for other groups.</SPAN>'''''
'''''Deep Fake Tools.'''''
**early vs. late adapters
*''''' [https://speechify.com/blog/deepfake-voice/ Voice].''''' The ability to clone a person's voice with a high degree of fidelity and accuracy increases the range of constructive as well as malicious uses that this new technology can be applied to.
**increasingly chaotic anecdotal reality
*''''' [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zl_4V0ks7CE Imagery].''''' Tools such as MidJourney and Dall-E are capable of creating imagery that is indistinguishable from photographic imagery. The trend toward increasingly lifelike imagery will simply continue.
**phenotypical bifurcation
* '''''[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B4jNttRvbpU Video].''''' The ability to construct a video from any narrative is now possible with existing deep fake video editing software. Using tools that enable face swapping means that any person whose face has or can be captured in a public venue can merged with t he image of a prominent person such as a politician or cinematic figure. Moreover anything that the fake video providers might want that public person to appear to be saying can now be done seamlessly to the point that it is almost impossible to determine if that public figure actually said what was presented.
**skills explosion: generalists & specialists
'''''Fine Tuning.'''''
'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">Synthesis</SPAN>'''''
* LoRa.
Uptake of CG4 class capabilities are likely to follow the patterns of previous technology advances. Recent reporting showed that ChatGPT uptake was the most rapid technology in recent memory.
* Bulk User Curated.

Latest revision as of 16:48, 28 July 2024


Fire

Overview
Interfacing/Access - Synthesis, Conclusions.

Technology Uptake

How Different Groups Can or Will Interact with this New Capability?

The development and uptake of artificial intelligence tools has been extremely rapid. We should expect to see at least two types of artificial intelligence approaches leading the charge... these will be characterized by:

    • generative AI systems these will increase in their versatility and proficiency to interact with users with a wide range of knowledge and skills proficiency; during 2023 the industry witnessed the emergence of remarkably powerful tools that can accept a text input and generate remarkable, even photorealistic imagery of all kinds; this has included the creation of synthetic people; i.e. people who do not nor have ever existed; equally image to text systems have been able to accept a single image of a real life situation or person and describe in surprising detail the contents, elements and actions that obtain within an image; as of April 2024 one major player has announced the development of a text to video creation tool; a user can present this system (SORA and more recently VASA-1) with a single still image and using this as a baseline create a full motion video;
    • large language models (LLM's): as of April 2024 the evidence is very clear that large language models (LLM's) are capable of perform such tasks as writing summaries, creating storylines and translations with remarkable proficiency; over time these will only get better;

The result will be that there will be new winners and losers. Therefore we believe that the new wave of capabilities will impact different groups solve problems internally or how those groups interact with each other will follow one or another patterns with characteristics resembling:

  • existing peer group competition: within a group of actors whose objectives are the same or similar there will be a keen awareness of what peer or near peer rivals or competitors are doing; any move that imparts a competitive advantage will be closely observed; early adapters or innovators are likely to be the first ones to try out the new technology and assess its ability to be a good fit but one that remains within economical or budgetary considerations will be the actors that peer actors will watch with keen attention; that we should expect this will derive from the reality that within any group of actors with common limitations, objectives and resources the jockeying for advantage will be intense; an existing member in that group might make a move which others will study to see if it succeeds or fails;
  • existing clients, rivals, targets interactions: we should expect to see the relationships between groups such as adversaries and targets to change in response to the relative ease or difficulty involved that an adversary such as a hacker might encounter when attempting to go after a heretofore easily attacked target; targets of prior cyber-hacking will avail themselves to increasingly sophisticated intrusion detection and prevention tools; this will make one groups (the attackers) efforts at suborning another groups (the targets) increasingly challenging and difficult; the result being that there will be a shift in focus from previously easy targets which have now levitated out of range to other easier to attack "low hanging fruit";
  • emergent new actors: existing support actors that provide third-party add-on's will proliferate; these can already be seen in the context of add-on's or add-in's to all of the popular browsers such as Chrome or Microsoft Edge; these new actors will continue to provide augmentation capabilities to existing users but these new capabilities will be more focused on the development, deployment and maintenance of knowledge focused and intensive capabilities;
  • very rapid uptake: or to put it another way... "the devil take the hindmost"; those groups that recognize the capabilities of these new tools will take them onboard and gain leverage in their respective spheres of activity;
  • zero/non-zero games prevail: existing arrangement that involve competitive pressures will insure that any and all transactions whether zero sum or non-zero sum will remain; the time span between action and reaction will decrease however; also the level of sophistication of an action or a reaction will improve as well;
  • conformal interactions: users will discover that their ability to interact with these new capabilities will be enhanced due to the ability to directly converse verbally with them; this has an upside but a downside as well; speaking comes naturally but is extremely low bandwidth; high and ultrahigh resolution graphics display capabilities coupled with verbal input and output will facilitate problem solving that more resembles "being in the zone"; i.e... the ability to remain focused on the salient and if necessary, crucial abstract elements involved in solving a problem;
  • teamwork: the ability to create multi-agent autonomous systems will greatly enhance the problem solving ability of users who are versed in harnessing this new capability to their ongoing operations;
  • prompting, fine-tuning - resource focusing: the ability to fine-tune and create ever more sophisticated prompts that drive the problem solving process forward will prove to be the make or break capabilities going forward for any groups or agents using this new technology; the more sophisticated users will use these tools themselves to refine the instructions (prompts) that are then feed back into them; the result will be logarithmically improved results;
  • Cambrian explosion: looking forward a short distance we will see small to medium enterprises spring up that focus their efforts at fine-tuning and prompt-development that focus on very specific knowledge domains; these might be a specific but well known area of knowledge or might be specific to a specific company's products and services;
  • early warning: the rapid pace of development and refinement will mean that within any given venue we should expect to see rapid to very rapid refinement as well as attrition of existing actors who were not able to maintain the pace of change; the ability to monitor developments closely and respond, if necessary, almost in real time will become crucial;

New Game (Zero, Non-Zero Sum) but on Steroids. We should expect to see the same or similar patterns of interaction between the set of actors that know about this technology and who acquire it. Therefore in cases where there were competitive pressures such as in the entertainment industry we might see screen writers augmenting their writing skills by using a tool such as a CG4 or its later incarnations. In the case of cybersecurity we should see increasingly sophisticated intrusion attempts. The increase in the sophistication of attacks will inevitably lead to increasingly sophisticated detection and prevention tools. In short... it will be the same old story, the same old song. It will just happen far more quickly.
The New "ABC's". Prompting, Super-Prompting and Fine-Tuning. Actors who will gain maximum benefit will combine prompting and fine-tuning with the creation of autonomous agents. Tool kits or ensembles of tools will emerge that will facilitate the ability to enable multiple instances of an AI system to interact and communicate with it siblings.
CP4 supported Prompt Refinement. Recent research efforts have demonstrated that a CP4 system can be directed to assist in the refinement of prompts which are then applied back to itself for further refinement. This recursive refinement capability means that stunningly focused queries will be possible when querying a CP4 type system.
Sudden Death. Those lacking in prompting and fine-tuning capabilities will be quickly marginalized and left behind.
For purposes of simplicity we refer to these artificial intelligence systems regardless of whether they are based upon LLM’s, generative, Convolutional, recursive or adversarial neural networks as cognitive prosthetics (CP’s). This is because these tools are remarkably capable at demonstrating extraordinary competence in specific skill areas they are still not demonstrably conscious and possess no sentience or intentionality.
Warp Speed Evolution. The sophistication will be exhibited will be startling. Current interface technology has reached a stunning point of sophistication. This rapid advance has been driven by high and very high resolution displays. The rapid advance in speech recognition and generation have progressed to the point that is very difficult if not impossible to determine if one is conversing with a human or a synthetic system. When these are combined the ability to engage deeply in the cognitive exploration or problem solving process will take a leap forward. Those actors capable of synthesizing various of these components together will be the winners in the emerging high speed pace of new technological innovation.
Display Technology. Ever increasing resolution in our display devices will further drive forward the use of CP4 type systems that are integrated with high and ultra-high definition and resolution.
T2S-S2T. Current voice synthesis systems are of such sophistication that they can not be distinguished from an actual human speaker. The ability of speech to text systems means in complementary fashion that we will be able interact and converse with these new systems simply by talking. This has both positive and negative ramifications.
Positive. On the positive side it means that fully lifelike imagery will become the new standard when viewing any process that can be imagined. By being able to have a very large display a sophisticated user will be able to partition areas of a screen that represent different levels of abstraction or levels of detail for selected aspects of a process or service under development.
Negative. On the other side interacting with these systems using voice input or output means that ultra low bandwidth input or output of information will continue. Entirely new modalities of interacting with these systems will emerge that enable this bandwidth bottleneck to be bypassed.
Display. By way of example, current 8K resolution displays are available. They currently reside at the high end price range. Therefore only agents and actors that can subsume this cost will be the early adaptors. In the offing are 16k resolution devices. A number of technology companies have demonstrated 32K resolution devices. These currently tend to be fairly large and require a wall to mount them on. Over time, market forces will drive the costs of these much more advanced display systems down.
Voice Technology – both speech recognition and generation have also reached a remarkably high level of sophistication. When these are combined with point whereby superseding it would require high definition holography.
Cambrian Explosion. Functionality, new capabilities emerge that will resemble the Cambrian era. We should expect to see new products and services wherein suppliers will mix and match multiple LLM's with complementary skills. Conversely we should also expect to see composite systems with skill groups that exhibit divergent capabilities. the numbers of knowledge sources is currently not known and can only be inferred.
Zero Sum. This means that there is an implicit recognition that all human commerce involves game-like transactional structures. These can be either zero sum games or non-zero sum games.
Open Sources. The HuggingFace website is a repository of open sources LLM datasets; these can be downloaded at not cost and used for any purpose.
Agents. As of April 2024 agent technology has become well recognized and accepted. Tools will continue to facilitate he creation of composite cognitive prosthetic (CP's). The ability to construct large composite systems. The range of variability will be very large due to the fact that it will be possible to connect any CP to any number of other homogeneous or heterogeneous system instance.


Race To The Top

How Will or Can They Respond to its Existence and Presence. Recent studies have made plain that a powerful new technology will be adapted in record time if it is demonstrably a powerful leveraging tool; evidence of this can be seen in how quickly it is adapted.

  • The CG4 "Uptake Curve". CG4 reached over one million users in a matter of days.
  • Within Less Than Two Months. CG4 had reached 100 million users worldwide. This rapid uptake pace suggests that momentum has built that will drive further uptake by those less inclined to vigilance about the rapid pace of change that this technology brings;
  • New Capabilities. An entire library of CG4 material has sprung into existence on how to use create new applications and extensions;

How will they be affected by this new capability.

  • Personalized Tutors. CG4 provides a user with the ability to pose remarkably sophisticated questions on a broad range of topics; where the acquisition of a new skill or area of expertise is envisioned it is capable of creating a study guide with a complete syllabus that provides a pathway from even the most superficial grasp of a topic to its most advanced areas;
  • Interactive Audio Books. Audio books will become passé; instead it will become preferable to be able to have a conversation with the book itself; were one to study the works of Konrad Nietzsche one would instead be able to effectively converse or otherwise "talk" with Nietzsche and discuss the various topics that the actual philosopher entertained when writing his works; we should expect to see variations on this capability wherein several legacy experts simulacra were instantiated and communications between them or existent users was enabled; a case in point might be enabling a conversation between Frank Herbert (author of Dune), Alan Watts and for instance, Jordan Peterson; a user initiating a session such as this would experience the two instances interacting and discussing with each other points of clarification; clearly even larger sets of knowledge areas can be brought to bear as well;
  • Cross-Referenced Expertise Multiple insights will become available within a single interactive session; for instance were one to study the topic of Stoicism as described by Epictetus and his peers as described, one might be able to re-represent his insights into a compact symbolic logic representation; such a representation structure might be used to provide insight on family or personal matters by individuals trained as sociologists or psychotherapists; for a given psychotherapeutic setting, several points of view might be offered on a specific psychological issue; one perspective might derive from a Jungian approach to the problem; another perspective might derive from a Berne approach (transactional analysis); these two perspectives might "discuss and debate" with each other their respective positions and subsequently offer their recommendations on how to proceed;
Groups
  • Individualized Advisors (professional and life coaches). Individuals who aspire to the top ranks incorporations have come to recognize that navigating a successful path to the top requires a range of skills including leadership, communication and narrative story telling. It is uncommon to find the full set of these skills in any specific individual. Enabling access to the insights of experts in each of these areas will become more accessible and available.
  • Enhanced Collaborative Problem Solving. Existing WebEx, Skype or Zoom teleconferencing have become common in enabling voice and video online and real time discussion; stepping into a higher dimension we should expect to see individuals come to the fore each with their individualized CP tool set and offer access to their peer experts;
  • Emergence of marketplaces for novel objects, products and services. CG4 class CP's are already spawning new products and services; one case in point can be seen with the availability of organizations offering vector database services to host extended memory for LLM's; the existing CG4 offers a broad range and depth of capability; for specific purposes however fine tuning is indicated; looking forward a short way down the road we should expect to see organizations offering their services or tools that facilitate the fine tuning task; the ability to fine tune a LLM will mean that there will be an explosion in the range, sophistication and depth of capability of LLM based tools;
  • Novel and Inexplicable Disruptions Of service providers such as wireless or other online capabilities. The recent ransom-ware attacked that happened in Las Vegas in the US underscore the reality of malicious use of netcentric tools as weapons; as netcentric attacks were beginning to ramp up several years ago a favorite vector of attack was to use the distributed denial of service (DDOS) approach; in this approach hundreds or thousands of PC's were redirected to request a response to a specific web server; the requests were repeated endlessly until the hosting server was overwhelmed and was unable to respond; the result was that the website timed out; it became inaccessible; a variation on this approach can be used with comparable tools but targeted in a coordinated fashion at mobile phones; the result can be a combination traffic management attack combined with mobile phone attacks; that this is plausible is corroborated by the fact that users of such services as Tik Tok are able to geolocate a specific individuals location as well as launch other forms of disruption to that individual's mobile phone; were many individuals phones to be used as an attack vector then many people could find themselves trapped in a traffic gridlock and unable to reach others; the Israeli Pegasus tool has made very clear that it is fully capable of seizing control of any mobile phone on the planet;
  • High Risk/Payoff Early Adapters. The early adaptors will explore the new terrain and gain the advantages that those who have mapped out the advantageous terrain is relative to the pitfalls. We should see a proliferation of tools that facilitate fine tuning, simplification of incorporation of vector databases that dramatically expand on a CP's ability to access a specific domain or set of knowledge domains.

Might the various access modalities that are available to one group have positive or negative implications for other groups.

  • Early vs. Late Adapters. This pattern appears to repeat itself; therefore we should expect to see the same thing happen; those who can leverage these capabilities will define the new high ground; the rest will play catch up; or simply be left behind "in the past";
  • Increasingly Chaotic Anecdotal Realities. Further fragmentation appears to be emerging as the new normal; deep fake news reports, conspiracy theories are likely to abound; new services will emerge comparable to Ground News wherein reporting sources will be ranked in terms of bias and reliability.
  • Phenotypical Bifurcation. Currently the perceptible difference between individuals who are adept with a new technology vs. those who are not is typically not obvious; going forward the differences may remain somewhat obscure but the distance between the two categories are likely to widen to the point that one might as well identify the one group - early adapters and innovators as being members of a different phenotype compared to those who are slow to adapt; with the former group becoming adept at navigating the new reality in effect leaving the latter group to navigate with poor dexterity;
  • Skills Explosion - Generalists & Specialists. New skill collection will emerge with the new environment; the explosion of the World Wide Web led to new categories of individual who were adept at web site creation, with the vast expansion of web sites the need for search emerged which led to organizations that organized and indexed the population of existing and new web sites; these refined their reason for existence by ranking and thereby promoting various sites; this led to the entirely new skill of search engine optimization (SEO); myriad new services have emerged such as virtual private networking, ad blocking and automatic notifications; the new environment will experience a comparable emergence of specialist skills that will facilitate usage of this new "fire";

Interface: Cases, Details


Interface - Question. The question as posed is to answer is how will differing groups or communities make use of this new technology. As in, how might one group intrinsically gain new advantage relative to others. In the case of zero sum or non-zero sum situations how might this technology confer advantage (or disadvantage) by one group relative to others.
Interface - Answer. Large Language Models represent a dramatic expansion of the possible. Entirely new sets of possibilities are emerging as a result. Answering the question of how different groups will use this new technology and how they will gain or lose advantage will depend upon how they navigate their way into this new realm. As of early 2024 there were several pathways forward. These included:

  • Prompt Engineering.
  • Super-Prompting.
  • Fine Tuning.
  • Targeted Tools and Uses.
  • Autonomous Agent Tools.

Cognitive Prosthetics. In order to provide context it might be helpful to consider that the world has seen massive advances in technology, science, industry and commerce as a result of the hardware and software tools that we have come to take for granted. The include such commonly available tools as Microsoft Office, image editing, video construction and many other highly specialized software tools. These tools enable the design and creation of incredibly sophisticated products such as massive ocean cruse liners as well as amazingly sophisticated nuclear powered submarines. In all cases these tools typically have specialized access mechanisms. They typically require hours to days of specialized training to become conversant in their use. Then weeks or months of hands on practice to develop expertise and competence.

Advanced Cognitive Prosthetics (APCs - First Generation). This latest generation of tools should be considered as representing advanced cognitive prosthetics. This is because the means of access allows for direct verbal interaction and communication. At face value this might seem like a huge leap. However it must be kept in mind that in order to capitalize on systems of this order of sophistication the level of sophistication of the user is crucial. Their ability to fully leverage the power of these systems is grounded on the fact that they possess deep understanding of what the system is capable of. The converse side of the equation is the reality that verbal communication is inherently low bandwidth. Despite that being the case the availability of a conversational ACP means that new possibilities for exploring the search for solutions is now at another level.

Advanced Cognitive Prosthetics (APCs Second Generation). Large Language Models (LLM’s) such as ChatGPT4, LLAMA or DeepMind are software tools that function as powerful prosthetics. They bear resemble to the most sophisticated 3D printer or CRISPR-CAS13 genomic editing tool. They impart unheard of versatility and power to a competent user. Therefore we view LLM’s and their peers are advanced cognitive prosthetics (ACP’s). We expect to see them being used to further enhance already existing processes or tasks in ways that have heretofore not been imagined.

Advanced Conformal Cognitive Prosthetics (ACCP). The current generation of LLM’s tools that enhance existing cognitive functioning and task completion in ways that are very comparable to having a knowledgeable assistant in performing an already known or defined task.

In this view a ACP's traits could be viewed from the perspective of a surgeon's glove. In this case it would be like enhancing the glove with a variety of unobtrusively incorporated supporting tools. Continuing with this metaphor one might imagine that the fabric of the glove has a built in scalpel, light, laser, magnifying lens, clamps and suturing tools.

Keeping the reality of different groups gaining or losing advantage we expect that existent interactions between varying communities will continue as before. The sophistication and pace of exchange will vary however.

New Day Same Problem. Different groups will seize this new technology and search for ways in which to further their existing positions. This means that existing operational or transactional approaches will be preserved but modified as this new technology’s new capabilities and limitations become increasingly evident.

Prompt Engineering. Repeated use of LLM has placed focus on the crucial role of being able to pose useful queries to the system. LLM's possess a great deal of knowledge that is generally opaque to a user. The specific forms of response or knowledge is intrinsically present in the system however eliciting relevant responses that illuminate that knowledge is challenging. Therefore we are seeing a rise in the category of users or super-users who construct highly focused prompts for specific or broad use.

Domain Query Experts. Prompt Engineering has already revealed an iteration when it comes to accessing and using a LLM. In the case of broad availability of open source LLM's several groups have emerged who place focus on formulating highly effective prompts. These prompts are described as being "Super Prompts". Typically these Super Prompts incorporate multiple refinement structures that direct the LLM to perform a query in highly sophisticated ways. Early prompts used what have been called chain of thought approaches.

A tree of thought is a more powerful form of prompting. It enables more sophisticated queries to be posed to an LLM. With the tree of thought a prompt would direct the LLM to perform its functioning in a manner that resulted in parallel actions being executed against the LLM.

forest of thought are even more powerful querying techniques that facilitate deeper access into the LLM's capabilities.

LangChain. This is a development framework that a very knowledgeable software developer would use to construct domain or task specific tools that use an LLM as a core element.


Recent developments have emerged that place focus on providing very sharp and targeted queries to a LLM. This new approach is characterized by what are known as Super Prompts. In this case a prompt is constructed

Darwinian Escalation Ladder. This will prove to be a continuing journey. This new technology is self replenishing and self extensible. Therefore answering the question of how different groups will interact as the modalities of interaction will constantly change.

Current Snapshot. Therefore at most answering this question can only be tentative and iterative. Any current characterization of how individuals or groups will use this new technology can only be momentary. Subsequent characterizations will require modification from insights that will be refined and developed over time.

Known. Therefore in order to move forward suggests approaching this question from a relatively obtuse starting point. By this we mean that the means of using or sharpening and focusing on the ability of this capability over time.

By way of example. These fall into a small group that suggest how it is currently being used. What can immediately be identified are the means whereby a LLM is initially trained. Subsequent iterations of use will reveal that generic LLM’s can have their performance improved. There are several means wherein further performance improvements are suggested by several venues. These arise as a result of how LLM’s function and are brought forward for broad or general use.

Categories. In subsequent sections of this document the reader will find a short list of known areas or activities which are known to be impacted by advances in the world of CP’s.

  • Teaching/Training/Advising/Entertaining.
  • Informing/Persuading.
  • Analysis.
  • Summarizing.
  • Illuminating/Discovering.
  • Subverting/Suborning/Disabling This is a live map of world wide net-centric threats. Looking forward we would expect to see the frequency and sophistication of these attacks to increase pace and tempo.
  • Malicious Dual use ACP tools will be used for hacking or other forms of net-centric attacks.

Examples. Cases already exist where an existing trade, skill or profession have large populations of individuals who use their skills in these areas.

Local/Sequestered GPT Instances.

Deep Fake Tools.

  • Voice. The ability to clone a person's voice with a high degree of fidelity and accuracy increases the range of constructive as well as malicious uses that this new technology can be applied to.
  • Imagery. Tools such as MidJourney and Dall-E are capable of creating imagery that is indistinguishable from photographic imagery. The trend toward increasingly lifelike imagery will simply continue.
  • Video. The ability to construct a video from any narrative is now possible with existing deep fake video editing software. Using tools that enable face swapping means that any person whose face has or can be captured in a public venue can merged with t he image of a prominent person such as a politician or cinematic figure. Moreover anything that the fake video providers might want that public person to appear to be saying can now be done seamlessly to the point that it is almost impossible to determine if that public figure actually said what was presented.

Fine Tuning.

  • LoRa.
  • Bulk User Curated.
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