Difference between revisions of "Darwin2049/ChatGPT4/PhaseShift"

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'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:YELLOW">[https://arguably.io/index.php?title=ChatGPT4-Questions/User:Darwin2049/Overview&action=edit Overview]</SPAN>'''''<BR />
'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:YELLOW">[https://arguably.io/index.php?title=ChatGPT4-Questions/User:Darwin2049/Overview&action=edit Overview]</SPAN>'''''<BR />
[[File:IBMQ04.jpg|300px|right|IBM Lead Researchers]]
[[File:IBMQ04.jpg|300px|right|IBM Lead Researchers]]
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[[File:IBMQ2.jpg|right|300px|IBM Quantum System 2]]
[[File:IBMQ2.jpg|right|300px|IBM Quantum System 2]]
[[File:QU-BIT04.jpg|300px|right|Binary vs. Quantum Logic]]
[[File:QU-BIT04.jpg|300px|right|Binary vs. Quantum Logic]]
[[File:IBM-TRUENORTH.jpg|300px|right|IBM True North Neuromorphic Processor]]
[[File:BlochSphere00.png|300px|right|Bloch Sphere]]
[[File:BlochSphere00.png|300px|right|Bloch Sphere]]


'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">Quantum Computing.</SPAN>''''' Quantum computing is currently making its way into the mainstream computing world. Major industrial giants such as IBM, Google and other smaller entrants such as D-Wave are moving forward briskly at ushering this new technology into the light of day.<BR />
'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">Quantum Computing.</SPAN>''''' Quantum computing is currently making its way into the mainstream computing world. Major industrial giants such as IBM, Google and other smaller entrants such as D-Wave are moving forward briskly at ushering this new technology into the light of day.<BR />
Recently IBM announced its IBM Quantum System Two which is based upon their 432 qubit Osprey quantum processor. Google has published a timeline of progress stipulating increasing performance milestones through the 2020’s. Some salient points to keep in mind regarding this topic are that:
 
* '''''<SPAN STYLE="COLOR:BLUE">Before/After.</SPAN>''''' Quantum computing will be transformative in all areas of human endeavor. Impacts will emerge that are comparable to the taming of fire, animal husbandry, agriculture and writing.
IBM recently (2023.11) announced availability of its '''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">IBM Quantum System Two</SPAN>''''' which is based upon their '''''432 qubit''''' Osprey quantum processor. Google has published a timeline of progress stipulating increasing performance milestones through the 2020’s. Some salient points to keep in mind regarding this topic are that:
* '''''<SPAN STYLE="COLOR:BLUE">Cognitive Prosthetic.</SPAN> ''''' Increasingly mainstream quantum computing systems will enable dramatic advances in science and technology. Associated advances will emerge in other areas of human endeavor such as politics, sociology, psychology, economics and geopolitics. An tentative model might be a person with a cognitive expansion capability. This might resemble something like an actively directable form of sub consciousness.
* '''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">Before/After.</SPAN>''''' Quantum computing will be transformative in all areas of human endeavor. Impacts will emerge that are comparable to the taming of fire, animal husbandry, agriculture and writing.
* '''''<SPAN STYLE="COLOR:BLUE">Composite Systems.</SPAN> ''''' Typical high end systems today consist of rows of rack mounted processing systems that are interfaced together for enhanced performance. IBM has publicized that its Quantum System Two will function as an element in a hybrid ensemble.  An environment with several dedicated systems will offer novel and unexpected capabilities to users.   
* '''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">Cognitive Prosthetic.</SPAN> ''''' Increasingly mainstream quantum computing systems will enable dramatic advances in science and technology. Associated advances will emerge in other areas of human endeavor such as politics, sociology, psychology, economics and geopolitics. An tentative model might be a person with a cognitive expansion capability. This might resemble something like an actively directable form of subconsciousness.
* '''''<SPAN STYLE="COLOR:BLUE">Conformal Cognitive Interfaces.</SPAN>''''' Combining a deep learning based system with optimized user interface systems that excel at voice and video presentation will result in systems that will provide users the experience of interacting with the most knowledgeable people on the planet. These avatar based presentations will be indistinguishable from real people. Calibrating their behavioral traits to make their presentations more human-like will mean that the need for a revision of the Turing Test will become necessary. By way of example early fictitious presentations as well as recent scientific and engineering developments suggests this will become the common reality. Why might this be so?:  
* '''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">Composite Systems.</SPAN> ''''' Typical high end systems today consist of rows of rack mounted processing systems that are interfaced together for enhanced performance. IBM has publicized that its Quantum System Two will function as an element in a hybrid ensemble.  An environment with several dedicated systems will offer novel and unexpected capabilities to users.   
** '''''<SPAN STYLE="COLOR:BLUE">HAL9000.</SPAN>''''' The 1968 movie, a computing system known as the HAL9000 system exhibited behavior that might convince an informed observer that it was conscious.  Developments during the course of the movie made clear that it had intentionality and goal seeking behavior. Given today's climate that cautions against alignment risks the HAL9000 system clearly demonstrated that this had been a missing behavioral feature in HAL9000's development. With lethal results. That being so, the movie made ground breaking predictions insofar as HAL9000 was capable of interacting with human via speech. It possessed acute visual and spatial abilities. Moreover and crucially it clearly demonstrated '''''theory of mind'''''. This became evident as it executed a plan of deception. This was made clear when it formulated a plan to mislead the crew and cause them to believe that a crucial component failure had actually happened.  
* '''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">Conformal Cognitive Interfaces.</SPAN>''''' Combining a deep learning based system with optimized user interface systems that excel at voice and video presentation will result in systems that will provide users the experience of interacting with the most knowledgeable people on the planet. These avatar based presentations will be indistinguishable from real people. Calibrating their behavioral traits to make their presentations more human-like will mean that the need for a revision of the Turing Test will become necessary. By way of example early fictitious presentations as well as recent scientific and engineering developments suggests this will become the common reality. Why might this be so?:  
** '''''<SPAN STYLE="COLOR:BLUE">Sphere.</SPAN>''''' This Michael Crichton novel (which later became a movie) powerfully presented the concept of a cognitive prosthetic that was capable of materializing objects based upon the wishes or desires of a user. A key element in the novel offered the supposition that at some point an advanced extra terrestrial civilization might create technology that can materialize whatever a user could envision. Ultimately the sphere could be considered a '''''cognitive echo chamber'''''. But one with the ability to materialize the users thoughts or wishes. Like HAL9000 it too exhibited no signs of alignment. Rather it was presented as just another tool to be used much as hammers or screw drivers are considered to be merely tools and have no intrinsic means of enforcing any kind of moral or ethical alignment values upon their usages. It exhibited none of the traits associated with consciousness such as sentience, goal oriented behavior, intentionality or consciousness.
** '''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">HAL9000.</SPAN>''''' The 1968 movie, a computing system known as the HAL9000 system exhibited behavior that might convince an informed observer that it was conscious.  Developments during the course of the movie made clear that it had intentionality and goal seeking behavior. Given today's climate that cautions against alignment risks the HAL9000 system clearly demonstrated that this had been a missing behavioral feature in HAL9000's development. With lethal results. That being so, the movie made ground breaking predictions insofar as HAL9000 was capable of interacting with human via speech. It possessed acute visual and spatial abilities. Moreover and crucially it clearly demonstrated '''''theory of mind'''''. This became evident as it executed a plan of deception. This was made clear when it formulated a plan to mislead the crew and cause them to believe that a crucial component failure had actually happened.  
** '''''<SPAN STYLE="COLOR:BLUE">CG4/Watson/TrueNorth (IBM).</SPAN>''''' The IBM corporation has a technology imperative of creating electronic versions of massive neural networks. The current state of play can be seen with the IBM TrueNorth processor. This is a neuromorphic device that mimics the neurological activity of significant swathes of the mammalian cortex. Incorporating this technology into an ensemble of processing elements means that the new systems that will emerge will possess capabilities that rival or even dwarf those of the best humans, animals or combinations thereof.
** '''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">Sphere.</SPAN>''''' This Michael Crichton novel (which later became a movie) powerfully presented the concept of a cognitive prosthetic that was capable of materializing objects based upon the wishes or desires of a user. A key element in the novel offered the supposition that at some point an advanced extra terrestrial civilization might create technology that can materialize whatever a user could envision. Ultimately the sphere could be considered a '''''cognitive echo chamber'''''. But one with the ability to materialize the users thoughts or wishes. Like HAL9000 it too exhibited no signs of alignment. Rather it was presented as just another tool to be used much as hammers or screw drivers are considered to be merely tools and have no intrinsic means of enforcing any kind of moral or ethical alignment values upon their usages. It exhibited none of the traits associated with consciousness such as sentience, goal oriented behavior, intentionality or consciousness.
* '''''<SPAN STYLE="COLOR:BLUE">Geostrategic Imperatives.</SPAN> ''''' The national interest security community has forcefully sounded the alarm about the existential importance of seizing the scientific and technological high ground in the area of quantum computing and artificial intelligence. Going forward the race will escalate between the US and the PRC. Calls to slow or pause advances in deep learning systems will be dismissed as suicidality naïve and shortsighted.
** '''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">CG4/Watson/TrueNorth (IBM).</SPAN>''''' The IBM corporation has a technology imperative of creating electronic versions of massive neural networks. The current state of play can be seen with the IBM TrueNorth processor. This is a neuromorphic device that mimics the neurological activity of significant swathes of the mammalian cortex. Incorporating this technology into an ensemble of processing elements means that the new systems that will emerge will possess capabilities that rival or even dwarf those of the best humans, animals or combinations thereof.
* '''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">Geostrategic Imperatives.</SPAN> ''''' The national interest security community has forcefully sounded the alarm about the existential importance of seizing the scientific and technological high ground in the area of quantum computing and artificial intelligence. Going forward the race will escalate between the US and the PRC. Calls to slow or pause advances in deep learning systems will be dismissed as suicidality naïve and shortsighted.
[[File:QU-BIT02.jpeg|300px|right|Quantum computing elements]]
'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">Phase Shift: Gas, Liquid, Solid.</SPAN>''''' Classical physics describes how states of matter possess different properties depending upon their energy state and environment. <BR />
*'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">It is undetectable.</SPAN> ''''' At sea level we experience the atmosphere as an odorless, colorless, tasteless gas.<BR />
*'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">No, it is wet.</SPAN> ''''' At the same location the freezing point of water if 32F. We are unaware of the fact that we inhale and exhale atmospheric gas.  Lower the ambient temperature to below the freezing point and something that is difficult if not impossible detect condenses into a clear liquid with properties that are absent in the gaseous state.<BR />
*'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">No, it is solid.</SPAN> '''''  The previous gaseous or liquid states of water vapor do not prepare us to see solid objects made from this same material. This proves that a prior state of knowledge may offer no insight for encountering a subsequent states.<BR />
*'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">Dual Use.</SPAN> ''''' This means that little or no time for reflection as to whether should be pursued. <BR />
*'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">Unintended Consequences.</SPAN> ''''' This implies that we will enable possibilities that were not envisioned. Little or no time will be required to identify promising pathways forward when trying to solve difficult problems. Meanwhile, the pace is increasing. <BR />
*'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">Warp Speed.</SPAN> '''''  Informed observers of OpenAI have reported that Chat GPT4 required roughly ninety to one hundred days of train time using 25000 high end Nvidia A100 GPU devices. As of this writing (December 2023) faster H100 GPU devices will halve the number of devices needed and the time required to perform the same training.<BR />
[[File:HadamardSphere.png|300px|right|Hadamard Sphere]]
[[File:IBMQUANTUM2.jpg|right|300px|Exponential Computational Capabilities]]
[[File:IBMQ03.jpg|right|300px|IBM Quantum Computing Timeline]]
*'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">Instant Results.</SPAN>''''' Quantum systems will collapse to minutes or less. This is because the time to validate a new concept, process or idea can be done almost instantly. What recently required weeks and months of 24/7 run time can now be performed in seconds or even instantly. New functionality and capability might have been regarded as “possible but over the horizon” might now become possible instantly. <BR />
*'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">Risks.</SPAN>''''' Therefore with the ability to conceptualize a solution approach to a problem to seeing that problem’s solution instantly available leaves no margin of time to assess risk. <BR />
*'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">Therefore.</SPAN>''''' ChatGPT4 allows the user to perform fine tuning for their specific purposes. This suggests that we may see an entirely new ecology arise in very short periods of time. It may be liken transitioning from submitting batch jobs on decks of punched cards to ultra high resolution virtual reality in one step. The upshot will be that problem that no one has yet even imagined will become soluble in breathtakingly short periods of time. By way of imagining just a few:<BR />
*'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">Cambrian Explosion.</SPAN>''''' The genie is already out of the bottle. Attempts to reign it back in will prove to be futile. An explosion is likely to result that will defy the best efforts to control or regulate. Therefore we might expect to see a proliferation comparable to that of earlier eras in he development of life on earth.<BR />
*'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">Ecology.</SPAN>''''' This technology is essentially unregulated. The US Administration has proposed actions. However these may or may not get implemented any time soon. Widespread availability of deep learning and related technology absent meaningful regulation practically insures that a new ecological environment will emerge. At one end will be government sponsored research facilities and contractors. At the other end of the spectrum we may see the emergence of "one man and his dog" outfits that provide highly specialized niche products or services. An entire new ecology may gradually crystallize as a result. The electronic nature and the instant nature of worldwide connectedness may show a reiteration of evolutionary pressures that will morph at speeds far beyond the evolution of software.<BR />
*'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">The Emerging Clerisy.</SPAN>''''' Two opposing schools of thought have emerged centering around the dangers that an artificial intelligence system might exhibit. A December 7th, 1941 type event against the US by a rival or adversary would instantly tip the balance in favor of no holds barred efforts to advance all possible variations of artificial intelligence systems.<BR />
**'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">Orthodoxy.</SPAN>''''' For purposes of discussion we describe the first group’s stance as the Orthodoxy. It’s stance is that ongoing developments represent can unwittingly introduce unacceptable risk. <BR />
**'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">Heterodoxy.</SPAN>''''' This group’s position is that possession of advanced artificial intelligence capabilities by a rival or hostile adversary represents an existential threat and must be avoided at all costs.<BR />
*'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">Why.</SPAN>''''' Because a number of quantum algorithms promise to upend existing processes or safeguards. Two examples are the Shor's and Grover's algorithms.
**'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">Shor's Algorithm.</SPAN>''''' This is an algorithm that can be used to crack an encryption scheme. It does this because it is capable of factoring large prime numbers. Quantum computers can collapse the time and effort required to factor large prime numbers.  In a Traveling Salesman problem as the number of cities that need to be visited increases and the number of possible pathways to travel between them increase then the number of possible solutions explodes. Solving this optimization problem can very quickly overwhelm classical computing architectures. With the ability to factor large prime numbers it becomes possible to crack RSA encryption.
***'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">Quantum Encryption.</SPAN>''''' New methods of insuring secure encrypted communication will become mandatory as a result of the obsolescence of existing encryption methods.
***'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">The Traveling Salesman.</SPAN>'''''In a Traveling Salesman problem as the number of cities that need to be visited increases and the number of possible pathways to travel between them increase then the number of possible solutions explodes. Solving this optimization problem can very quickly overwhelm classical computing architectures. The difficulty of solving the Traveling Salesman problem scales exponentially as the number of nodes to visit increases.
***'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">Complex Process Problems.</SPAN>''''' The implications of this capability means that the most efficient path to a goal can be determined even with large numbers of nodes and links. With a quantum computer all possible pathways can be explored simultaneously and the best solution can be presented. '''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:YELLOW">[https://kaustubhrakhade.medium.com/shors-factoring-algorithm-94a0796a13b1 Explained Simply.]</SPAN>''''' Still, requires some focus on the process. '''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:YELLOW">[https://scottaaronson.blog/?p=208 Using simple mathematics.]</SPAN>''''' Requires little mathematics or physics background but does require focusing on the explanation. '''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:YELLOW">[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zoKIWrpan6M&ab_channel=QuTechAcademy Shor’s Algorithm – illustrated.] </SPAN>'''''This video helps clarify why Shor's Algorithm is suited to solving encryption problems. This has to do with the fact that it can be used to factor large prime numbers. '''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:YELLOW">[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zoKIWrpan6M&ab_channel=QuTechAcademy Step by step.]</SPAN>'''''
**'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">Grover’s Algorithm.</SPAN>''''' This is an algorithm developed in 1996 by Lov Grover. It leverages quantum computing to collapse the amount of time needed to perform a search of N unordered elements. Note that a crucial factor is that in performing the search for a specific element that meets a set of desired criteria, any evaluation of an element in the set yields no information about which other element in the set of N elements might help determine the desired one.
***'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">Grover's Algorithm - Explanation.</SPAN>''''' Short video that explains the '''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:YELLOW">[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YEI5vYdcoQ4 Grover's Algorithm]</SPAN>'''''. Note that this is a sophisticated presentation that presumes some understanding of the underlying quantum mechanics.
***'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">Grover's Algorithm - Uses.</SPAN>''''' When we apply quantum computing to real world problems we will quickly discover that it is possible to '''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:YELLOW">[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IhS6ecYZFdQ model very complex chemical problems]</SPAN>'''''. This means that new materials and pharmaceuticals can be discovered in record amounts of time.
**'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">Other Algorithms.</SPAN>''''' A number of quantum algorithms have been devised that solve specific types of problems. Many of these are highly abstruse and require a more than superficial understanding of quantum theory and mathematics. Suffice it to say that the interested reader will find a good point of departure by exploring several of the more well known algorithms. '''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:YELLOW">[https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Quantum_algorithm A small set can be located here.]</SPAN>'''''
'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">Quantum Mechanics.</SPAN>''''' The brief items that follow are deliberately kept brief because a discussion of the mathematics and physics underpinning quantum computing is beyond the scope of this discussion. This is because the topic area obliged a deep understanding and conversance with very advanced mathematics and physics. <BR />
Quantum computing mechanisms due to their inherent nature are capable of solving problems that are beyond any current or foreseeable classical computing architecture. <BR />
There are various reasons why this is the case. Quantum computing as the name suggests is grounded in the quantum world. Understanding quantum physics requires the most advanced grounding in physics and mathematics. Therefore we provide only a cursory introduction to some of the more basic elements. Additional definitions can be found via the link at the end of this page. <BR />
Advanced mathematics is advised for those wishing to further understand the crucial elements of entanglement, coherence, vector spaces or quantum algorithms.<BR />
What can be said currently however is that this new computational environment will make possible solution to currently intractable problems soluble within acceptable time frames. The ability to do so will invariably carry with it great promise but also great risk. <BR />
* '''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">Superposition.<SPAN />''''' Quantum computers are capable of performing calculations that are beyond the scope of classical computing devices. This arises from the quantum reality of superposition. This means that an object at the quantum level has two factors that can be measured: momentum and location. At any instant a quantum system can be in all possible definable states. The act of attempting a measurement will result in the collapse of this superposition state and result in returning a specific value. But this also means that only one factor can be known at the moment of measurement EITHER the position of the object or its momentum - but not both. This arises due to the Heisenberg's Uncertainty Principle.<BR />
* '''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">Entanglement.<SPAN />''''' Two electrons can have an entangled state. This means that if one electron is in one state, such as up spin then by definition the entangled electron of the pair will automatically have a down spin state. The two electrons can be removed to an arbitrary distance from each other. However examination of one of the pair will automatically reveal the state of the other. '''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:YELLOW">[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fkAAbXPEAtU This short explanation]<SPAN />''''' captures the basics of entanglement.
* '''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">Coherence/Decoherence.<SPAN />''''' A crucial factor that conditions the utility of a device operating at the quantum level is noise. Any kind of noise from heat, vibration or cosmic rays can disrupt the extremely delicate processes at the quantum level. Therefore when numbers are presented they are often not well differentiated into qubits that can perform useful computations relative to those that do not. A strategy for dealing with this problem has been to use large numbers of qubits as an error correcting means. Therefore when a quantum device is said to consist of over a thousand qubits then in fact it might have to use 90% of them just for maintaining quantum coherence and entanglement. In order to get meaningful results these quantum states must be maintained for the duration of the calculation. But at these levels and using this means the result is that calculations happen at scales far beyond merely electronic or even photonic speed but due to quantum realities multiple evaluations can happen in parallel. The result has been the dramatic speed up numbers that have recently been reported in various research labs and corporations. Therefore a quantum computer that is claiming to have one hundred or more coherent qubit capability means that they can outperform classical computers by very wide margins.<BR />
*'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">Wave-Particle Duality.<SPAN />''''' Quantum physics reveals that at subatomic levels matter and light exhibit behavior that can be interpreted as showing that it is both wave in nature as well as particle. Innumerable experiments have revealed that despite this being intuitively contradictory the experimental results conclusively show that the dual wave-particle nature of matter and light is a reality. This is an abstruse topic and its full explication is beyond the scope of this discourse. See '''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:YELLOW">[https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Wave%E2%80%93particle_duality this page for more insight]<SPAN />''''' A schematic representation of the '''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:YELLOW">[https://arguably.io/Darwin2049/ChatGPT4/PhaseShift particle-wave duality of light can be studied here].<SPAN />'''''
* '''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:YELLOW">[https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Uncertainty_principle Heisenberg's Uncertainty Principle].<SPAN />''''' Werner Heisenberg was the developer of the now famous '''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:YELLOW">[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m7gXgHgQGhw Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle]<SPAN />''''' and won the Nobel prize for his discovery in 1927. His principle essentially stated that at the micro level of reality (i.e. atomic or subatomic) one can only measure the position OR the momentum of a particle. But because of the particle/wave duality nature of all matter it is impossible to measure both. Should we attempt to pinpoint the location of a particle we might discover its precise point at a specific moment in time but we can NOT know its momentum. Conversely we might measure its momentum or energy state but we can NOT know its position. The reality of the world at the quantum level is inherently counterintuitive. However innumerable physics experiments have demonstrated beyond doubt that this is the reality in which all material objects exist.
 
The interested observer can find a number of useful references addressing the '''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">topics of quantum bits, entanglement and superposition <SPAN />''''' Note, the topic of quantum physics and quantum computing involves rather abstruse topics. Following are a few links that might be considered cautious steps in the direction of attempting to gain a deeper understanding of the topic: '''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:YELLOW">[https://quantumtech.blog/2021/11/14/quantum-superposition-and-entanglement/ The Quantum Leap]<SPAN> ''''' Superposition and entanglement. '''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:YELLOW">[https://morethanmoore.substack.com/p/scaling-up-quantum-to-100-million/ QuBits and Scaling]<SPAN> ''''' Why scaling and coherence is crucial. IBM's approach to pushing the state of the art into the early 2030's. '''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:YELLOW">[https://quantumtech.blog/2021/12/05/qubits-a-primer/ Some very useful basics]</SPAN>'''''
In some cases they will prove to be fairly technical.<BR />
 
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When new knowledge can be incorporated into a quantum based deep learning system on almost a moment’s notice then it suggests that the incorporation of new knowledge on any topic can be almost instantly brought to bear on any problem. <BR />
Chat GPT4 allows the user to perform fine tuning for their specific purposes. This suggests that we may see an entirely new ecology arise in very short periods of time. It may be liken transitioning from submitting batch jobs on decks of punched cards to ultra high resolution virtual reality in one step. <BR />
The upshot will be that problem that no one has yet even imagined will become soluble in breathtakingly short periods of time. <BR />
 
Working from the premise that new knowledge can be rapidly incorporated into a deep learning system and then fine tuned to specific needs suggests that the entire landscape as it is now known is about to undergo a dramatic shift. By way of a leap of imagination we might see a number of out of date notions reincarnate themselves. By way of imagining just a few:
*'''''<SPAN STYLE="COLOR:BLUE">Cambrian Explosion.</SPAN>''''' The genie is already out of the bottle. Attempts to reign it back in will prove to be futile. An explosion is likely to result that will defy the best efforts to control or regulate. Therefore we might expect to see a proliferation comparable to that of earlier eras in he development of life on earth. 
*'''''<SPAN STYLE="COLOR:BLUE">Perpetually Morphing Ecology.</SPAN>''''' Widespread availability of deep learning and related technology may well lead to the development of an entirely new ecology. At one end will be government sponsored research facilities and contractors. At the other end of the spectrum we may see the emergence of "one man and his dog" outfits that provide highly specialized niche products or services. An entire new ecology may gradually crystallize as a result. The electronic nature and the instant nature of world wide connectedness may show a reiteration of evolutionary pressures that will morph at speeds far beyond the evolution of software.
*'''''<SPAN STYLE="COLOR:BLUE">Clerisy.</SPAN>''''' As of 2023 two poles of thought have begun to consolidate their positions on the risks associated with the continued development of advanced artificial intelligence. There is one group that has expressed sentiment that ranges from caution to panic regarding its continued development. The other group has urged focus on the risks of a rival or adversary making advances. In each case the risks are presented as existential.<BR /><BR />
 
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* '''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">Quantum Mechanics.</SPAN>''''' The brief items that follow are deliberately kept brief because a discussion of the mathematics and physics underpinning quantum computing is beyond the scope of this discussion. This is because the topic area obliged a deep understanding and conversance with very advanced mathematics and physics.  
* '''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">Quantum Mechanics.</SPAN>''''' The brief items that follow are deliberately kept brief because a discussion of the mathematics and physics underpinning quantum computing is beyond the scope of this discussion. This is because the topic area obliged a deep understanding and conversance with very advanced mathematics and physics.  
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[[File:QU-BIT02.jpeg|300px|right|Quantum computing elements]]
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'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">Phase Shift: Gas, Liquid, Solid.</SPAN>''''' Classical physics describes how states of matter possess different properties depending upon their energy state or environment. Thus on the surface of the earth at sea level we experience the atmosphere as an odorless, colorless, tasteless gas. In an environment above the freezing point of water we are unaware of the fact that we inhale and exhale atmospheric gas. It is odorless, colorless and tasteless. Therefore it is difficult if not impossible to imagine that it can condense into a clear liquid. <BR />
In a prior era a similar development centered around the Christian church. There were in fact several occurrences of there being a schism between one school of thought and others. Early Christian theology found itself grappling with questions of the Deity and how there could be three different divine yet mortal incarnations of the one God. The Father, Son and Holy Ghost. Another thorny issue related to the question of Transubstantion and its role in the liturgy.
The previous gaseous or liquid states of water vapor do not prepare us to see solid objects made from this same material.
**Council of Nicaea. During the Council of Nicaea these questions were argued vehemently and at length. Ultimately Justinian forced the issue and a consensus was arrived at.
Looking forward we should expect to encounter very similar kinds of different experiences, i.e. a prior state offers no preparation for encountering a subsequent one.<BR />  
**The Reformation. Martin Luther sparked a revolution in religious thought with his questions that he famously nailed on the door to the cathedral. What the common people knew and were experiencing were summarized in his petition. The results were a firestorm that has echoed and reverberated across the centuries.
Transitioning to quantum computing will frequently involve the same kinds of jarring discontinuities. Informed observers have reported that Chat GPT4 required roughly ninety to one hundred days to train using 25000 high end Nvidia GPU devices. This time collapse to minutes or less. <BR />  
**The Pope in Avignon. Political motivations fanned the flames of Papal legitimacy when the French declared that their Pope was the one true legitimate Pope and that the one in Rome was a fraud.  
When new knowledge can be incorporated into a quantum based deep learning system on almost a moment’s notice then it suggests that the incorporation of new knowledge on any topic can be almost instantly brought to bear on any problem. <BR />  
**The Counter Reformation. Alternative interpretations of the Biblical Canon led to the development of unorthodox ways of interpreting the positions found in Biblical texts. Political underpinning insured that these alternative interpretations would consolidate and persist to our time.
Chat GPT4 allows the user to perform fine tuning for their specific purposes. This suggests that we may see an entirely new ecology arise in very short periods of time. It may be liken transitioning from submitting batch jobs on decks of punched cards to ultra high resolution virtual reality in one step. <BR />  
*Creedal Legitimacy. The two schools of thought regarding how to press forward with deep learning systems may in many ways echo these early attempts at arriving at an acceptable path forward when dealing with this powerful new technology. <BR /><BR />
The upshot will be that problem that no one has yet even imagined will become soluble in breathtakingly short periods of time. <BR />
Whereas these first religious wars spanned centuries to play out we should expect to see similar attempts at resolution to happen at warp speed. This assertion is predicated upon the fact that quantum computing based artificial intelligence will enable the materialization of "facts on the ground" that support variously the one camp, ten by turns the other camp. Therefore we might see this happen in record time as the questions of safety are resolved... or deferred.<BR /><BR />
 
This process may well show representatives from both schools of thought taking on the traits and characteristics of those seen in the past. For instance in the Christian world a foundational document served the purpose of being the source from which all discussion and dispute arose. This was the Christian Bible. In this newer incarnation we might expect to see comparable foundational documents become the basis for recognizing issues and resolving disputes. <BR /><BR /> In each case there will be leading voices. There will also be "chorus sections" that echo the central positions of each camp. We might also expect that there will be outlier actors who espouse some but possibly not all of the positions of a school of thought and may act as maverick-type voices. They might be likened to the emergence of the cardinal class from the bishopric class.<BR />
Working from the premise that new knowledge can be rapidly incorporated into a deep learning system and then fine tuned to specific needs suggests that the entire landscape as it is now known is about to undergo a dramatic shift. By way of a leap of imagination we might see a number of out of date notions reincarnate themselves. By way of imagining just a few:
have already congealed about the efficacy or risks associated with deep learning technology. Existing proponents of either school of thought may find themselves jostled as the technology grains traction and entirely new capabilities come to the fore. The result may resemble the emergence of philosophical belief systems whose central tenets focused on how to position these new capabilities within the social fabric. The process may resemble that of the development of religious thought during prior millennia. The quantum computing substrate upon which new ideas and value sets can emerge means that this development can happen at a pace never seen before.  
*'''''<SPAN STYLE="COLOR:BLUE">Cambrian Explosion.</SPAN>'''''
**'''''<SPAN STYLE="COLOR:BLUE">Spirits.</SPAN>''''' A meme that regularly surfaces is the speculation that a so-called artificial general intelligence-type capability may be momentarily upon us. This capability has been characterized as a disembodied overarching intelligence capable of answering any question that humans can pose to it. In prior times this kind of capability might have been labeled as a deity or some kind of god-like being. The reality is that the potential risks are in fact real - within limits. This is because of the ability to enable such a cognitive prosthetic connection to various forms of fabrication systems or manufacturing centers can result in the creation of novel materials, chemicals or other biological constructions of which few or no humans might even be aware of. Wikipedia might be considered a forerunner to what eventually might come to be called  '''''spirits'''''. Currently knowledge sources such as Wikipedia has experienced a number of claims and assertions regarding the validity of its sources and the political/sentiment biases of various of its entries. A '''''spirit''''' might come to evolve into a specialized source of knowledge that grows organically with use. It might be accessible using basic human communications skills such as speech or similar symbolic representations, e.g. imagery, video, various combinations. As these gain acceptance we might see them developing followings and adherents. Should such a pathway forward become accepted then we may see the emergence of specialists comparable to clerics from earlier times such as imams, rabbis, bishops and cardinals.  
*'''''<SPAN STYLE="COLOR:BLUE">Perpetually Morphing Ecology.</SPAN>'''''
**'''''<SPAN STYLE="COLOR:BLUE">Oracles.</SPAN>''''' In the classical Greek worldview the deity Apollo used a woman known as the Oracle to provide insights and predictions. The oracle received local visitors as well as those from far away. They would pose questions to her on a variety of issues from personal to questions of diplomacy and war. Her pronouncements were often couched as riddles for the questioner to decipher. Current users of CG4 issue queries to it on all manner of topics. More recently the art and science of formulating queries has refined with the advent of what are known as super prompts. These super prompts are constructed as a series of qualifications and refinements. The result is that the output from CG4 can be substantially more useful, well structured and focused than a simple prompt might provide. Looking forward we should expect to see additions being made to CG4 by the OpenAI organization itself. Individuals and enterprises are already able to submit their own fine tuning information and knowledge. The ability to increasingly fine tune the capabilities of CGR4 suggests the possibility of having individuals or teams that offer increasingly refined and targeted performance.  
*'''''<SPAN STYLE="COLOR:BLUE">Alchemists, Sorcerers, Magicians, Wizards, Apprentices, Jesters.</SPAN>'''''
*'''''<SPAN STYLE="COLOR:BLUE">Spirits.</SPAN>'''''
**'''''<SPAN STYLE="COLOR:BLUE">Oracles.</SPAN>'''''
**'''''<SPAN STYLE="COLOR:BLUE">Clergy.</SPAN>'''''
**'''''<SPAN STYLE="COLOR:BLUE">Philosophes.</SPAN>'''''
**'''''<SPAN STYLE="COLOR:BLUE">Philosophes.</SPAN>'''''
**'''''<SPAN STYLE="COLOR:BLUE">Orthodoxy, Heterodox, Heretics, Revisionists, Protestants, Orcs.</SPAN>'''''
**'''''<SPAN STYLE="COLOR:BLUE">Orthodoxy, Heterodox, Heretics, Revisionists, Protestants, Orcs.</SPAN>'''''
**'''''<SPAN STYLE="COLOR:BLUE">Cardinals, Bishops, Prelates, High Priests.</SPAN>'''''
**'''''<SPAN STYLE="COLOR:BLUE">Cardinals, Bishops, Prelates, High Priests.</SPAN>'''''
*'''''<SPAN STYLE="COLOR:BLUE">Guilds.</SPAN> '''''
*'''''<SPAN STYLE="COLOR:BLUE">Guilds.</SPAN> ''''' Existing professional organizations are an outgrowth of medieval guilds. These were essentially trade specific collections who gradually articulated and promulgated standards and practices. Typical guilds were stone cutters and masons or woodworkers. Other skill groups emerged that were specific to metal working or such specialties as wheelwrights. Food storage became a valuable skills with the eventual development of coopers who were able to offer efficient wooden structures as barrels.
*'''''<SPAN STYLE="COLOR:BLUE">Specialists: Alchemists, Sorcerers, Magicians, Wizards, Apprentices, Jesters.</SPAN>'''''
**'''''<SPAN STYLE="COLOR:BLUE">.</SPAN>'''''
**'''''<SPAN STYLE="COLOR:BLUE">Smiths, Masons, Wheelwrights, Coopers.</SPAN>'''''
**'''''<SPAN STYLE="COLOR:BLUE">Smiths, Masons, Wheelwrights, Coopers.</SPAN>'''''
**'''''<SPAN STYLE="COLOR:BLUE">Balloonists.</SPAN>'''''
**'''''<SPAN STYLE="COLOR:BLUE">Mentats.</SPAN>''''' The sixties Frank Herbert novel Dune featured a range of humans with unique and exceptional skills. A significant capability were those humans who were trained to perform calculations of mathematics, logic and other tasks that would be considered only possible using a modern electronic computer. The infrastructure is already in place to approach this kind of skill. A user with a voice input capability and a mobile fone connection can connect to their dedicated cognitive prosthetic and query it verbally. By being able to query a cognitive prosthetic from any location means that a class of individuals may emerge that are adept at posing highly specific and exact queries to their cognitive prosthetic and offer responses in real time.
**'''''<SPAN STYLE="COLOR:BLUE">Navigators.</SPAN>'''''
**'''''<SPAN STYLE="COLOR:BLUE">Gatekeepers.</SPAN>'''''
**'''''<SPAN STYLE="COLOR:BLUE">Tamers, Trainers.</SPAN>'''''
**'''''<SPAN STYLE="COLOR:BLUE">Mentats.</SPAN>'''''
**'''''<SPAN STYLE="COLOR:BLUE">Samurai, Ninjas, Ronin.</SPAN>'''''
**'''''<SPAN STYLE="COLOR:BLUE">Samurai, Ninjas, Ronin.</SPAN>'''''
**'''''<SPAN STYLE="COLOR:BLUE">Katsas, Kidon, Sayanim.</SPAN>'''''
**'''''<SPAN STYLE="COLOR:BLUE">Katsas, Kidon, Sayanim.</SPAN>'''''
**'''''<SPAN STYLE="COLOR:BLUE">Pied Pipers, Horse Whisperers, Snake Charmers, Jugglers, Chanteuses.</SPAN>'''''
**'''''<SPAN STYLE="COLOR:BLUE">Pied Pipers, Horse Whisperers, Snake Charmers, Jugglers, Chanteuses, Muses.</SPAN>''''' Social media and similar popular channels of information have shown the rise of individual known as ''influencers''. These are individuals who provide reliable impressions on specific topic areas. Common topic areas might involve cuisine, attire or leisure. Other more targeted areas such as legal or financial advice will become increasingly available.
*'''''<SPAN STYLE="COLOR:BLUE">The Krell.</SPAN>'''''
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* '''''<SPAN STYLE="COLOR:BLUE">Gas.</SPAN>''''' Were we to collect sufficient quantities of atmospheric gas into a sealable container it would be possible to cool the gasses comprising earth's atmosphere into liquids. The idea of wetness, shape conformability and other properties of a liquid would suddenly become evident. Yet it would be difficult to adduce wetness if we never had experience with a liquids.<BR />  
* '''''<SPAN STYLE="COLOR:BLUE">Gas.</SPAN>''''' Were we to collect sufficient quantities of atmospheric gas into a sealable container it would be possible to cool the gasses comprising earth's atmosphere into liquids. The idea of wetness, shape conformability and other properties of a liquid would suddenly become evident. Yet it would be difficult to adduce wetness if we never had experience with a liquids.<BR />  
** Properties. {invisible, odorless, colorless, conformable, insensate};
** Properties. {invisible, odorless, colorless, conformable, insensate};
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* '''''<SPAN STYLE="COLOR:BLUE">Solid.</SPAN>''''' The process can be repeated. If we were to use water as a basis then we might discover another state of matter that water can exhibit. This is the state of ice. Many of us use this material (ice) to condition our beverages. That a heretofore wet liquid could become solid might also defy our ability to imagine it taking on solid form.  These all consist of the same substance, i.e. H2O. Yet properties found in one state, or phase bear little or no resemblance to those in the subsequent state. We should expect to see an evolution comparable happening in fast forward motion that is very comparable to "gas to liquid, liquid to solid". When DeepMind or CG4 are re-hosted in a quantum computing environment equally unimaginable capabilities will become the norm.<BR />
* '''''<SPAN STYLE="COLOR:BLUE">Solid.</SPAN>''''' The process can be repeated. If we were to use water as a basis then we might discover another state of matter that water can exhibit. This is the state of ice. Many of us use this material (ice) to condition our beverages. That a heretofore wet liquid could become solid might also defy our ability to imagine it taking on solid form.  These all consist of the same substance, i.e. H2O. Yet properties found in one state, or phase bear little or no resemblance to those in the subsequent state. We should expect to see an evolution comparable happening in fast forward motion that is very comparable to "gas to liquid, liquid to solid". When DeepMind or CG4 are re-hosted in a quantum computing environment equally unimaginable capabilities will become the norm.<BR />
** Properties. {nonconformable textural firmness caloric}
** Properties. {nonconformable textural firmness caloric}
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* '''''<SPAN STYLE="COLOR:BLUE">Synthesis.</SPAN>''''' A crucial insight to incorporate from this brief overview is that totally novel capabilities will manifest with the increased use of quantum-hosted artificial intelligence. What capabilities as may begin to arise can only be guessed at. The difficulty is rooted in the fact that there are few or no clues or hints from an existing state to suggest what the next state may offer. <BR />
* '''''<SPAN STYLE="COLOR:BLUE">Synthesis.</SPAN>''''' A crucial insight to incorporate from this brief overview is that totally novel capabilities will manifest with the increased use of quantum-hosted artificial intelligence. What capabilities as may begin to arise can only be guessed at. The difficulty is rooted in the fact that there are few or no clues or hints from an existing state to suggest what the next state may offer. <BR />
Therefore  the imperative to advance the state of the art ex post haste is and will remain unremitting.
Therefore  the imperative to advance the state of the art ex post haste is and will remain unremitting.
-->
-->
[[File:HadamardSphere.png|300px|right|Hadamard Sphere]]
[[File:IBMQUANTUM2.jpg|right|300px|Exponential Computational Capabilities]]
[[File:IBMQ03.jpg|right|300px|IBM Quantum Computing Timeline]]
'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">Quantum Mechanics.</SPAN>''''' The brief items that follow are deliberately kept brief because a discussion of the mathematics and physics underpinning quantum computing is beyond the scope of this discussion. This is because the topic area obliged a deep understanding and conversance with very advanced mathematics and physics. <BR />
Quantum computing mechanisms due to their inherent nature are capable of solving problems that are beyond any current or foreseeable classical computing architecture. <BR />
There are various reasons why this is the case. Quantum computing as the name suggests is grounded in the quantum world. Understanding quantum physics requires the most advanced grounding in physics and mathematics. Therefore we provide only a cursory introduction to some of the more basic elements. Additional definitions can be found via the link at the end of this page. <BR />
Advanced mathematics is advised for those wishing to further understand the crucial elements of entanglement, coherence, vector spaces or quantum algorithms.<BR />
What can be said currently however is that this new computational environment will make possible solution to currently intractable problems soluble within acceptable time frames. The ability to do so will invariably carry with it great promise but also great risk. <BR />
* '''''<SPAN STYLE="COLOR:BLUE">Superposition.<SPAN />''''' Quantum computers are capable of performing calculations that are beyond the scope of classical computing devices. This arises from the quantum reality of superposition. This means that an object at the quantum level has two factors that can be measured: momentum and location. At any instant a quantum system can be in all possible definable states. The act of attempting a measurement will result in the collapse of this superposition state and result in returning a specific value. But this also means that only one factor can be known at the moment of measurement EITHER the position of the object or its momentum - but not both. This arises due to the Heisenberg's Uncertainty Principle.<BR />
* '''''<SPAN STYLE="COLOR:BLUE">Coherence/Decoherence.<SPAN />''''' A crucial factor that conditions the utility of a device operating at the quantum level is noise. Any kind of noise from heat, vibration or cosmic rays can disrupt the extremely delicate processes at the quantum level. Therefore when numbers are presented they are often not well differentiated into qubits that can perform useful computations relative to those that do not. A strategy for dealing with this problem has been to use large numbers of qubits as an error correcting means. Therefore when a quantum device is said to consist of over a thousand qubits then in fact it might have to use 90% of them just for maintaining quantum coherence and entanglement. In order to get meaningful results these quantum states must be maintained for the duration of the calculation. But at these levels and using this means the result is that calculations happen at scales far beyond merely electronic or even photonic speed but due to quantum realities multiple evaluations can happen in parallel. The result has been the dramatic speed up numbers that have recently been reported in various research labs and corporations. Therefore a quantum computer that is claiming to have one hundred or more coherent qubit capability means that they can outperform classical computers by very wide margins.<BR />
* '''''<SPAN STYLE="COLOR:BLUE">Entanglement.<SPAN />'''''<BR />
*'''''<SPAN STYLE="COLOR:BLUE">Wave-Particle Duality.<SPAN />'''''
* '''''<SPAN STYLE="COLOR:BLUE">[https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Uncertainty_principle Heisenberg's Uncertainty Principle].<SPAN />''''' Werner Heisenberg was the developer of the now famous [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m7gXgHgQGhw Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle] and won the Nobel prize for his discovery in 1927. His principle essentially stated that at the micro level of reality (i.e. atomic or subatomic) one can only measure the position OR the momentum of a particle. But because of the particle/wave duality nature of all matter it is impossible to measure both. Should we attempt to pinpoint the location of a particle we might discover its precise point at a specific moment in time but we can NOT know its momentum. Conversely we might measure its momentum or energy state but we can NOT know its position. The reality of the world at the quantum level is inherently counterintuitive. However innumerable physics experiments have demonstrated beyond doubt that this is the reality in which all material objects exist.
The interested observer can find a number of useful references addressing the '''''<SPAN STYLE="COLOR:BLUE">topics of quantum bits, entanglement and superposition <SPAN />'''''
*'''''<SPAN STYLE="COLOR:BLUE">[https://quantumtech.blog/2021/11/14/quantum-superposition-and-entanglement/ The Quantum Leap]<SPAN> '''''
*'''''<SPAN STYLE="COLOR:BLUE">[https://vincentlauzon.com/2018/03/21/quantum-computing-how-does-it-scale/ QuBits and Scaling]<SPAN> '''''
*'''''<SPAN STYLE="COLOR:BLUE">[https://quantumtech.blog/2021/12/05/qubits-a-primer/ Some very useful basics]</SPAN>'''''
In some cases they will prove to be fairly technical.<BR />
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IBM has made clear what its timeline prescribes. The team leading the charge to the high ground of quantum computing envision having devices ranging up into the hundreds of thousands or millions of qubits. What must become clear when viewing these numbers and ambitious plans is that computing as it has been known during the Moore's Law era will gradually fade much like an old black and white or sepia photograph from a century ago.<BR />
IBM has made clear what its timeline prescribes. The team leading the charge to the high ground of quantum computing envision having devices ranging up into the hundreds of thousands or millions of qubits. What must become clear when viewing these numbers and ambitious plans is that computing as it has been known during the Moore's Law era will gradually fade much like an old black and white or sepia photograph from a century ago.<BR />

Latest revision as of 02:17, 20 December 2023

Overview

IBM Lead Researchers
Quantum system assembly 'chandelier' visible
IBM Quantum System 2
Binary vs. Quantum Logic
IBM True North Neuromorphic Processor
Bloch Sphere

Quantum Computing. Quantum computing is currently making its way into the mainstream computing world. Major industrial giants such as IBM, Google and other smaller entrants such as D-Wave are moving forward briskly at ushering this new technology into the light of day.

IBM recently (2023.11) announced availability of its IBM Quantum System Two which is based upon their 432 qubit Osprey quantum processor. Google has published a timeline of progress stipulating increasing performance milestones through the 2020’s. Some salient points to keep in mind regarding this topic are that:

  • Before/After. Quantum computing will be transformative in all areas of human endeavor. Impacts will emerge that are comparable to the taming of fire, animal husbandry, agriculture and writing.
  • Cognitive Prosthetic. Increasingly mainstream quantum computing systems will enable dramatic advances in science and technology. Associated advances will emerge in other areas of human endeavor such as politics, sociology, psychology, economics and geopolitics. An tentative model might be a person with a cognitive expansion capability. This might resemble something like an actively directable form of subconsciousness.
  • Composite Systems. Typical high end systems today consist of rows of rack mounted processing systems that are interfaced together for enhanced performance. IBM has publicized that its Quantum System Two will function as an element in a hybrid ensemble. An environment with several dedicated systems will offer novel and unexpected capabilities to users.
  • Conformal Cognitive Interfaces. Combining a deep learning based system with optimized user interface systems that excel at voice and video presentation will result in systems that will provide users the experience of interacting with the most knowledgeable people on the planet. These avatar based presentations will be indistinguishable from real people. Calibrating their behavioral traits to make their presentations more human-like will mean that the need for a revision of the Turing Test will become necessary. By way of example early fictitious presentations as well as recent scientific and engineering developments suggests this will become the common reality. Why might this be so?:
    • HAL9000. The 1968 movie, a computing system known as the HAL9000 system exhibited behavior that might convince an informed observer that it was conscious. Developments during the course of the movie made clear that it had intentionality and goal seeking behavior. Given today's climate that cautions against alignment risks the HAL9000 system clearly demonstrated that this had been a missing behavioral feature in HAL9000's development. With lethal results. That being so, the movie made ground breaking predictions insofar as HAL9000 was capable of interacting with human via speech. It possessed acute visual and spatial abilities. Moreover and crucially it clearly demonstrated theory of mind. This became evident as it executed a plan of deception. This was made clear when it formulated a plan to mislead the crew and cause them to believe that a crucial component failure had actually happened.
    • Sphere. This Michael Crichton novel (which later became a movie) powerfully presented the concept of a cognitive prosthetic that was capable of materializing objects based upon the wishes or desires of a user. A key element in the novel offered the supposition that at some point an advanced extra terrestrial civilization might create technology that can materialize whatever a user could envision. Ultimately the sphere could be considered a cognitive echo chamber. But one with the ability to materialize the users thoughts or wishes. Like HAL9000 it too exhibited no signs of alignment. Rather it was presented as just another tool to be used much as hammers or screw drivers are considered to be merely tools and have no intrinsic means of enforcing any kind of moral or ethical alignment values upon their usages. It exhibited none of the traits associated with consciousness such as sentience, goal oriented behavior, intentionality or consciousness.
    • CG4/Watson/TrueNorth (IBM). The IBM corporation has a technology imperative of creating electronic versions of massive neural networks. The current state of play can be seen with the IBM TrueNorth processor. This is a neuromorphic device that mimics the neurological activity of significant swathes of the mammalian cortex. Incorporating this technology into an ensemble of processing elements means that the new systems that will emerge will possess capabilities that rival or even dwarf those of the best humans, animals or combinations thereof.
  • Geostrategic Imperatives. The national interest security community has forcefully sounded the alarm about the existential importance of seizing the scientific and technological high ground in the area of quantum computing and artificial intelligence. Going forward the race will escalate between the US and the PRC. Calls to slow or pause advances in deep learning systems will be dismissed as suicidality naïve and shortsighted.
Quantum computing elements

Phase Shift: Gas, Liquid, Solid. Classical physics describes how states of matter possess different properties depending upon their energy state and environment.

  • It is undetectable. At sea level we experience the atmosphere as an odorless, colorless, tasteless gas.
  • No, it is wet. At the same location the freezing point of water if 32F. We are unaware of the fact that we inhale and exhale atmospheric gas. Lower the ambient temperature to below the freezing point and something that is difficult if not impossible detect condenses into a clear liquid with properties that are absent in the gaseous state.
  • No, it is solid. The previous gaseous or liquid states of water vapor do not prepare us to see solid objects made from this same material. This proves that a prior state of knowledge may offer no insight for encountering a subsequent states.
  • Dual Use. This means that little or no time for reflection as to whether should be pursued.
  • Unintended Consequences. This implies that we will enable possibilities that were not envisioned. Little or no time will be required to identify promising pathways forward when trying to solve difficult problems. Meanwhile, the pace is increasing.
  • Warp Speed. Informed observers of OpenAI have reported that Chat GPT4 required roughly ninety to one hundred days of train time using 25000 high end Nvidia A100 GPU devices. As of this writing (December 2023) faster H100 GPU devices will halve the number of devices needed and the time required to perform the same training.
Hadamard Sphere
Exponential Computational Capabilities
IBM Quantum Computing Timeline
  • Instant Results. Quantum systems will collapse to minutes or less. This is because the time to validate a new concept, process or idea can be done almost instantly. What recently required weeks and months of 24/7 run time can now be performed in seconds or even instantly. New functionality and capability might have been regarded as “possible but over the horizon” might now become possible instantly.
  • Risks. Therefore with the ability to conceptualize a solution approach to a problem to seeing that problem’s solution instantly available leaves no margin of time to assess risk.
  • Therefore. ChatGPT4 allows the user to perform fine tuning for their specific purposes. This suggests that we may see an entirely new ecology arise in very short periods of time. It may be liken transitioning from submitting batch jobs on decks of punched cards to ultra high resolution virtual reality in one step. The upshot will be that problem that no one has yet even imagined will become soluble in breathtakingly short periods of time. By way of imagining just a few:
  • Cambrian Explosion. The genie is already out of the bottle. Attempts to reign it back in will prove to be futile. An explosion is likely to result that will defy the best efforts to control or regulate. Therefore we might expect to see a proliferation comparable to that of earlier eras in he development of life on earth.
  • Ecology. This technology is essentially unregulated. The US Administration has proposed actions. However these may or may not get implemented any time soon. Widespread availability of deep learning and related technology absent meaningful regulation practically insures that a new ecological environment will emerge. At one end will be government sponsored research facilities and contractors. At the other end of the spectrum we may see the emergence of "one man and his dog" outfits that provide highly specialized niche products or services. An entire new ecology may gradually crystallize as a result. The electronic nature and the instant nature of worldwide connectedness may show a reiteration of evolutionary pressures that will morph at speeds far beyond the evolution of software.
  • The Emerging Clerisy. Two opposing schools of thought have emerged centering around the dangers that an artificial intelligence system might exhibit. A December 7th, 1941 type event against the US by a rival or adversary would instantly tip the balance in favor of no holds barred efforts to advance all possible variations of artificial intelligence systems.
    • Orthodoxy. For purposes of discussion we describe the first group’s stance as the Orthodoxy. It’s stance is that ongoing developments represent can unwittingly introduce unacceptable risk.
    • Heterodoxy. This group’s position is that possession of advanced artificial intelligence capabilities by a rival or hostile adversary represents an existential threat and must be avoided at all costs.
  • Why. Because a number of quantum algorithms promise to upend existing processes or safeguards. Two examples are the Shor's and Grover's algorithms.
    • Shor's Algorithm. This is an algorithm that can be used to crack an encryption scheme. It does this because it is capable of factoring large prime numbers. Quantum computers can collapse the time and effort required to factor large prime numbers. In a Traveling Salesman problem as the number of cities that need to be visited increases and the number of possible pathways to travel between them increase then the number of possible solutions explodes. Solving this optimization problem can very quickly overwhelm classical computing architectures. With the ability to factor large prime numbers it becomes possible to crack RSA encryption.
      • Quantum Encryption. New methods of insuring secure encrypted communication will become mandatory as a result of the obsolescence of existing encryption methods.
      • The Traveling Salesman.In a Traveling Salesman problem as the number of cities that need to be visited increases and the number of possible pathways to travel between them increase then the number of possible solutions explodes. Solving this optimization problem can very quickly overwhelm classical computing architectures. The difficulty of solving the Traveling Salesman problem scales exponentially as the number of nodes to visit increases.
      • Complex Process Problems. The implications of this capability means that the most efficient path to a goal can be determined even with large numbers of nodes and links. With a quantum computer all possible pathways can be explored simultaneously and the best solution can be presented. Explained Simply. Still, requires some focus on the process. Using simple mathematics. Requires little mathematics or physics background but does require focusing on the explanation. Shor’s Algorithm – illustrated. This video helps clarify why Shor's Algorithm is suited to solving encryption problems. This has to do with the fact that it can be used to factor large prime numbers. Step by step.
    • Grover’s Algorithm. This is an algorithm developed in 1996 by Lov Grover. It leverages quantum computing to collapse the amount of time needed to perform a search of N unordered elements. Note that a crucial factor is that in performing the search for a specific element that meets a set of desired criteria, any evaluation of an element in the set yields no information about which other element in the set of N elements might help determine the desired one.
      • Grover's Algorithm - Explanation. Short video that explains the Grover's Algorithm. Note that this is a sophisticated presentation that presumes some understanding of the underlying quantum mechanics.
      • Grover's Algorithm - Uses. When we apply quantum computing to real world problems we will quickly discover that it is possible to model very complex chemical problems. This means that new materials and pharmaceuticals can be discovered in record amounts of time.
    • Other Algorithms. A number of quantum algorithms have been devised that solve specific types of problems. Many of these are highly abstruse and require a more than superficial understanding of quantum theory and mathematics. Suffice it to say that the interested reader will find a good point of departure by exploring several of the more well known algorithms. A small set can be located here.

Quantum Mechanics. The brief items that follow are deliberately kept brief because a discussion of the mathematics and physics underpinning quantum computing is beyond the scope of this discussion. This is because the topic area obliged a deep understanding and conversance with very advanced mathematics and physics.
Quantum computing mechanisms due to their inherent nature are capable of solving problems that are beyond any current or foreseeable classical computing architecture.
There are various reasons why this is the case. Quantum computing as the name suggests is grounded in the quantum world. Understanding quantum physics requires the most advanced grounding in physics and mathematics. Therefore we provide only a cursory introduction to some of the more basic elements. Additional definitions can be found via the link at the end of this page.
Advanced mathematics is advised for those wishing to further understand the crucial elements of entanglement, coherence, vector spaces or quantum algorithms.
What can be said currently however is that this new computational environment will make possible solution to currently intractable problems soluble within acceptable time frames. The ability to do so will invariably carry with it great promise but also great risk.

  • Superposition. Quantum computers are capable of performing calculations that are beyond the scope of classical computing devices. This arises from the quantum reality of superposition. This means that an object at the quantum level has two factors that can be measured: momentum and location. At any instant a quantum system can be in all possible definable states. The act of attempting a measurement will result in the collapse of this superposition state and result in returning a specific value. But this also means that only one factor can be known at the moment of measurement EITHER the position of the object or its momentum - but not both. This arises due to the Heisenberg's Uncertainty Principle.
  • Entanglement. Two electrons can have an entangled state. This means that if one electron is in one state, such as up spin then by definition the entangled electron of the pair will automatically have a down spin state. The two electrons can be removed to an arbitrary distance from each other. However examination of one of the pair will automatically reveal the state of the other. This short explanation captures the basics of entanglement.
  • Coherence/Decoherence. A crucial factor that conditions the utility of a device operating at the quantum level is noise. Any kind of noise from heat, vibration or cosmic rays can disrupt the extremely delicate processes at the quantum level. Therefore when numbers are presented they are often not well differentiated into qubits that can perform useful computations relative to those that do not. A strategy for dealing with this problem has been to use large numbers of qubits as an error correcting means. Therefore when a quantum device is said to consist of over a thousand qubits then in fact it might have to use 90% of them just for maintaining quantum coherence and entanglement. In order to get meaningful results these quantum states must be maintained for the duration of the calculation. But at these levels and using this means the result is that calculations happen at scales far beyond merely electronic or even photonic speed but due to quantum realities multiple evaluations can happen in parallel. The result has been the dramatic speed up numbers that have recently been reported in various research labs and corporations. Therefore a quantum computer that is claiming to have one hundred or more coherent qubit capability means that they can outperform classical computers by very wide margins.
  • Wave-Particle Duality. Quantum physics reveals that at subatomic levels matter and light exhibit behavior that can be interpreted as showing that it is both wave in nature as well as particle. Innumerable experiments have revealed that despite this being intuitively contradictory the experimental results conclusively show that the dual wave-particle nature of matter and light is a reality. This is an abstruse topic and its full explication is beyond the scope of this discourse. See this page for more insight A schematic representation of the particle-wave duality of light can be studied here.
  • Heisenberg's Uncertainty Principle. Werner Heisenberg was the developer of the now famous Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle and won the Nobel prize for his discovery in 1927. His principle essentially stated that at the micro level of reality (i.e. atomic or subatomic) one can only measure the position OR the momentum of a particle. But because of the particle/wave duality nature of all matter it is impossible to measure both. Should we attempt to pinpoint the location of a particle we might discover its precise point at a specific moment in time but we can NOT know its momentum. Conversely we might measure its momentum or energy state but we can NOT know its position. The reality of the world at the quantum level is inherently counterintuitive. However innumerable physics experiments have demonstrated beyond doubt that this is the reality in which all material objects exist.

The interested observer can find a number of useful references addressing the topics of quantum bits, entanglement and superposition Note, the topic of quantum physics and quantum computing involves rather abstruse topics. Following are a few links that might be considered cautious steps in the direction of attempting to gain a deeper understanding of the topic: The Quantum Leap Superposition and entanglement. QuBits and Scaling Why scaling and coherence is crucial. IBM's approach to pushing the state of the art into the early 2030's. Some very useful basics In some cases they will prove to be fairly technical.


References

Quantum Computing Specifics