User:Darwin2049/chatgpt4 caveats

Overview

CAVEATS. The above impressions by notable observers in the field of artificial intelligence and geopolitics is small, unscientific sampling of positions. However in each case these individuals are well respected and known in their fields. From these we propose a few caveats and observations as a way forward.
We propose the tentative conclusion that several factors should condition our synthesis going forward. These include the premises that CG4:

• Inherently Dual Use Technology: it should be kept clearly in mind that its further use entails significant risks; the prospect that totally unforeseen and unexpected uses will emerge must be accepted as the new reality; like any new capability it will be applied toward positive and benign outcomes but we should not be surprised when adverse and negative uses emerge. Hopes of only positive outcomes are hopelessly unrealistic.
• Cognitive Prosthetic: (CP): The kinds of tasks that CG4 can perform suggest that it is well beyond the category of an appliance but rather is closer to a heavy industrial tool. Because of its ability to adapt its functionality to user defined task it might be more accurately something akin to a prosthetic. But in this case one that supports and extends human reasoning ability.
  

CG4 possesses no sense of self, sentience, intentionality or emotion. Yet it continues to demonstrate itself to be a very powerful tool for expression or problem solving.
Given its power to offer cognitive amplification we suggest further that it can form the basis of a more advanced form of symbolic representation and communication.

• Emergence: CG4 has shown novel and unexpected capabilities; capabilities that the designers had not anticipated have spontaneously arisen; however though no one so far is proposing that sentience, intentionality, consciousness or self reference might be present; the lights clearly are on but the doors and windows are still open and there is still nobody home.

• Hosting: Von Neuman Architecture: to date, CG4 is functioning on an ensemble of von Neuman machines. As it is currently accessed has been developed and is hosted on classical computing equipment. Despite this fact it has shown a stunning ability to provide context sensitive an meaningful responses to a broad range of queries. However intrinsic to its fundamental modeling approach has shown itself as being prone to actions that can intercept or subvert its intended agreeable functionality. To what extent solving this "alignment" problem is successful going forward remains to be seen. As training data sets grew in size processing power demands grew dramatically. Subsequently the more sophisticated LLM's such as CG4 and its peers have required environments that are massively parallel and operate at state of the art speeds. This has meant that in order to keep training times within acceptable limits some of the most powerful environments have been brought into play. Going to larger training data sets and keeping time to training conclusion may call for hosting on such exa-scale computing environments such as the El Capitan system or one of its near peer processing ensembles.

Hosting: Quantum Computing. Because of the inherent novelty of what a quantum computing environment might make possible the following discussion limits itself to what is currently known.

Published reports from giants such as IBM, Intel and Google lay out explicit timelines and project goals. In each case the expected goal of qubit availability is provided.
What has already been made very clear is that even with the very limited quantum computing capabilities currently available, these systems prove themselves to be orders of magnitude faster in solving difficult problems than even the most powerful classical supercomputer ensembles.
If we take a short step into the near term future then we might be obliged to attempt to assimilate and rationalize developments happening on a daily basis. Any or even all of which can have transformative implications.

The upshot is that as quantum computing becomes more prevalent the field of deep learning will take another forward "quantum leap" - literally which will put those who possess it at an incalculable advantage. It will be like trying to go after King Kong with Spad S. - firing with bb pellets.

The central problem in these most recent developments arises because of the well recognized human inability to process changes that happen in a nonlinear fashion. If change is introduced in a relatively linear fashion at a slow to moderate pace then most people adapt to and accommodate the change. However if change happens geometrically like what we see in the areas of deep learning then it is much more difficult to adapt to change.

• CG.X-Quantum will completely eclipse current incarnations of CG4: Quantum computing devices are already demonstrating their ability to solve problems in seconds or minutes that classical von Neuman computing machines require decades, centuries or even millennia to solve.

• Phase Shift. Classical physics describes how states of matter possess different properties depending upon their energy state or environment. Thus on the surface of the earth we can experience the gas of the atmosphere. In environments that are somewhat above the freezing point of water we are unaware of the fact that we inhale and exhale atmospheric gas. It is odorless, colorless and tasteless.
  
  • State: Gas. Were we to collect sufficient quantities of atmospheric gas into a sealable container it would be possible to cool the gasses comprising earth's atmosphere into liquids. The idea of wetness, shape conformability and other properties of a liquid would suddenly become evident. Yet it would be difficult to adduce wetness if we never had experience with a liquids.
    
  • State: Liquid. If one never had contact with the liquid state of H2O then properties as buoyancy, wetness, conformability (i.e. to the shape of a container, evaporation, discoloration and similar properties might be very difficult to imagine. It would be difficult if not even impossible to envision something that was otherwise undetectable because it was odorless, colorless and tasteless could somehow cause one's death by drowning. Yet were one to be plunged into a large enough body of water but not possess swimming skills one could very well die by drowning.
    
  • State: Solid. The process can be repeated. If we were to use water as a basis then we might discover another state of matter that water can exhibit. This is the state of ice. Many of us use this material (ice) to condition our beverages. That a heretofore wet liquid could become solid might also defy our ability to imagine it taking on solid form. These all consist of the same substance, i.e. H2O. Yet properties found in one state, or phase bear little or no resemblance to those in the subsequent state. We should expect to see an evolution comparable happening in fast forward motion that is very comparable to "gas to liquid, liquid to solid". When DeepMind or CG4 are re-hosted in a quantum computing environment equally unimaginable capabilities will become the norm.
    

The analyst can find a number of useful references addressing the topics of quantum bits, entanglement and superposition, here The Quantum Leap, here QuBits and Scaling and here Some very useful basics. In some cases they will prove to be fairly technical.

A quick peek at this scaling chart shows that the IBM-Q-System TWO with 432 QuBits is completely off of the chart. Which if one views the associated video will see, IBM plans to offer joined systems together in trios. The result will be well over one thousand qubits. Making a conceptual or imaginative leap to what this kind of capability means requires considerable insight and a mental framework that benefits from value scales either only poorly understood or understood by very few alive today.
RESCALING.
Progress has moved forward apace in the world of quantum computing. By and large most members of the public have little awareness of its reality or what it might mean. What might be worth pondering briefly are the numbers in this comparison table. Note that with relatively small numbers of QuBits the amount of computational capacity becomes extremely large - by contemporary standards. If we look at the advertised progress that IBM is making with its Osprey and Quantum System Two 432 QuBits - Roadmap device then we are seeing computational capacity that requires a redefinition of our understanding of what is possible.

Taking a very short leap of the imagination one might envision the capability of modeling molecular processes in fast forward time. One can imagine creating a Sim City type model with a large to very large number of agents, hundreds, thousands or tens of thousands where each has very detailed knowledge about their own domain. They might have comparable communications channels as those described in the "Sim City" experiment. The processing likewise being sped up by an arbitrary scaling factor.

Molecular modeling at quantum computing speed can mean that any number of parallel pathways can be examined and fine tuned almost instantly. Existing experiments with various deep learning based systems have shown that they are capable of creating their own experimental validation and verification processes and actions. They would only need some human intervention for equipment assembly and setup. With that done such as system could overnight be capable of exploring various experimental pathways forward that optimized a particular molecular structure for a highly specific purpose, or combination of purposes, then recommend the processing steps to create them.
This kind of capability suggests that heretofore unforeseen or unimagined psycho-actives might become available in the very near term. Usage of such capabilities could mean a bifurcation of humans from one species to a successor species. This can not reasonably be ruled out.
Geopolitical, Geo-Economic modeling at quantum speed can mean the creation of plans that can either cause ones own national strengths and standing could be considerably enhanced or those of a rival equally diminished or worse, damaged. This necessarily inheres from the ability to direct such as system to use known historical facts and rules of human endeavors to be used to play a model forward to see what kinds of outcomes might obtains. If one were to take a case in point one might use such a capability to play forward the events that led up to The Great War, or World War One to explore if there might have been other actions available to the leaders of the time to avert the catastrophe that ensued.

Interface, Interaction, Theory of Mind. A number of informed observers had advocated for the refinement of the Turing Test. A system capable of incorporating theory of mind, human psychology and behavior as well as other factors that enable humans to navigate as agents in the real world, one can imagine a situation where interacting with such a system might seem to be utterly indistinguishable from interacting with and extraordinarily brilliant individual. This might derive from the reality of it having the ability to probe and assess innumerable possible reasons why a person might be pursuing a line of thought or reasoning. One might experience this kind of system as being able to converse with the most knowledgeable, insightful, empathetic and reasonable individual ever. Such an experience could prove to be extremely seductive. Were such a a capability to be available then it becomes very difficult to imagine what uses it could be put to.
One can imagine a user interface that is based upon a variant or fine tuned derivative of CG4. It would be capable of speech recognition and generation. Its behavior repertoire would be capable of fail-soft disambiguation. Which means that it would immediately recognize that it had not anticipated or correctly interpreted a reference or contextual segment of text or verbiage. It might further retain this insight for future reference as a "by way of example" instance that the user could use to refer back to a prior discussion.

It would be able to push its current state onto a stack and backtrack to its last point of successful interpretation and request that the user or speaker clarify for it how to interpret the user's or speaker's intention. That clarification would then be incorporated into the saved context that was pushed onto a session stack. With the ability to use theory of mind the system might be able to make insightful inferences as to where the user's train of thought is going and prepare several alternative pathways to explore each direction. Further it might be able to infer the boundaries of knowledge that the user is operating with and suggest illuminative ways to fill in the missing elements. In this way a theory of mind for that specific individual would enable it to provide a more supportive interaction environment.
Existing CG4 functionality allows for sentiment analysis. This means that it is capable of analyzing a tract of text and deriving a sense of the sentiment that the author used in its composition. Looking at a far more sophisticated capability it is within the realm of reason to expect that a CG4-class system might iteratively develop theories that enable it to characterize various human states of mind. It might further be able to formulate theories that enable it to crystallize real world hypotheses of significant accuracy. Working with this kind of capability it would not seem to be far fetched to see CG4 type system teaching itself to interact with a human user in a seemingly highly empathetic and charming manner. The prospect of such a development should be both fascinating but also off-putting since it would enable such a system to be a highly agreeable interlocutor but could also become highly persuasive and manipulative. Further when operating at electronic speeds it could all happen in real time.
Looking at an only slightly more sophisticated approach even an existing CG4 class system should be able to create a set of agents and apply various interaction scripts to them to observe their behavior patterns and compare them to the behavior patterns of actual human users.