User:Darwin2049/ChatGPT4/Conclusions Synthesis

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Fire

Overview
Interfacing/Access - Synthesis, Conclusions.

  • CG4 Adeptness. Skills with this new capability will be comparable to taming fire.

Specifically, risks that either involve or actually are:
CG4, its derivatives and brethren will introduce consequences just as transformative; we therefore note that:

  • CG4 CP's are Dual Use. Just like fire, CG4 will be used for both constructive as well as destructive purposes;
  • Pre-literate vs. Post-literate Societies. it is a powerful enabler for leveraging a collection of people toward forming a self sustaining, much more advanced social structures and organizational units;
  • New Horizons. CG4 will enable the recognition, articulation solutions to problems that less adept societies could not;
  • On Bringing a Knife to a Gun Fight - Prospects. pre-CG4 social polities will be at a severe disadvantage comparable to the encounter between conquistadors vs indigenous New World natives. At minimum we should expect to see CG4 class CP's being used as:
  • Self Contained Tools. An increasing recognition that CG4-Class tools can serve as capabilities in and of themselves; that this is evident can be seen when a query is posed to CG4 to translate a tract of text to another language, or provide a synopsis of it; these are all intrinsic capabilities of the tool... in and of itself;
  • "Bridging" Mechanisms. These will serve as CP connectors to other more specialized capabilities such as IBM Watson or CYC Corp's CYC common sense knowledge base system; it is important to keep clearly in mind that humans operate at ultra-low bandwidth when conversing; considerable information is embedded in context rather than explicitly stated; mechanism such as CG4 and its peers are capable of interacting at electronic speed; therefore can exchange enormous volumes of information almost instantly;
  • Composite Cognitive Prosthetics. Multiple instances configured to be autonomous agents based upon CG4 can be collected together to form "societies of mind"; initial versions might have many to tens of instances; later variations might range into the hundreds or thousands of agents; theoretically the only practical upper limit to how many agents can be connected together is limited by the physical hardware available at the time;
  • Extended Composite CP Systems. Marketplaces offering ad hoc or persistent composite capabilities will proliferate. These will offer features and capabilities that can only be guessed at.


Technology Uptake

How Different Groups Can or Will Interact with this New Capability?
Different groups will interact with this new capability using the primary interfacing mechanism known as prompting. Further interactions will be performed using fine-tuning.

We should probably see the uptake of CG4 by different groups track along the lines of users of earlier systems or tools such as video editing and casting on Youtube.com or presentation creation with a tool such as OBS-Studio.
The ability to use each of these use these tools requires competence and skill development. Increasing skill usually correlates to more sophisticated productions.

The upshot being that they will not resemble the situation that we see when people acquire a vehicle driver's license. However more advanced skills may develop that do require licensing comparable to a person getting a commercial driver's license or a heavy equipment operator's license. In each of these cases additional training and certification is required before an individual is allowed to take control of these often powerful and frequently dangerous machines.

It is crucial to recognize that CG4 and its derivatives are remarkably powerful tools. But their responses are limited by the facility and imagination of the user. A good example of this is how a white board is used during a meeting or an educational session. In one case an instructor or professor might illustrate the basics of English grammar in terms of parts of speech like verbs, nouns adverbs and adjectives. A subsequent session later on the same day there may be an extended discussion or presentation on 11 dimensional quantum gravity theory. Each of these are very far from each other in terms of abstraction and the level of educational sophistication required to even understand the terminology. So it is also the case that with CG4 that the more sophisticated user will get more and better results from interacting with it.





Race To The Top

How Will or Can They Respond to its Existence and Presence. Recent studies have made plain that a powerful new technology will be adapted in record time if it is demonstrably a powerful leveraging tool; evidence of this can be seen in how quickly it is adapted.

  • The CG4 "Uptake Curve". CG4 reached over one million users in a matter of days.
  • Within Less Than Two Months. CG4 had reached 100 million users worldwide. This rapid uptake pace suggests that momentum has built that will drive further uptake by those less inclined to vigilance about the rapid pace of change that this technology brings;
  • New Capabilities. An entire library of CG4 material has sprung into existence on how to use create new applications and extensions;

How will they be affected by this new capability.

  • Personalized Tutors. CG4 provides a user with the ability to pose remarkably sophisticated questions on a broad range of topics; where the acquisition of a new skill or area of expertise is envisioned it is capable of creating a study guide with a complete syllabus that provides a pathway from even the most superficial grasp of a topic to its most advanced areas;
  • Interactive Audio Books. Audio books will become passé; instead it will become preferable to be able to have a conversation with the book itself; were one to study the works of Konrad Nietzsche one would instead be able to effectively converse or otherwise "talk" with Nietzsche and discuss the various topics that the actual philosopher entertained when writing his works; we should expect to see variations on this capability wherein several legacy experts simulacra were instantiated and communications between them or existent users was enabled; a case in point might be enabling a conversation between Frank Herbert (author of Dune), Alan Watts and for instance, Jordan Peterson; a user initiating a session such as this would experience the two instances interacting and discussing with each other points of clarification; clearly even larger sets of knowledge areas can be brought to bear as well;
  • Cross-Referenced Expertise Multiple insights will become available within a single interactive session; for instance were one to study the topic of Stoicism as described by Epictetus and his peers as described, one might be able to re-represent his insights into a compact symbolic logic representation; such a representation structure might be used to provide insight on family or personal matters by individuals trained as sociologists or psychotherapists; for a given psychotherapeutic setting, several points of view might be offered on a specific psychological issue; one perspective might derive from a Jungian approach to the problem; another perspective might derive from a Berne approach (transactional analysis); these two perspectives might "discuss and debate" with each other their respective positions and subsequently offer their recommendations on how to proceed;
Groups
  • Individualized Advisors (professional and life coaches). Individuals who aspire to the top ranks incorporations have come to recognize that navigating a successful path to the top requires a range of skills including leadership, communication and narrative story telling. It is uncommon to find the full set of these skills in any specific individual. Enabling access to the insights of experts in each of these areas will become more accessible and available.
  • Enhanced Collaborative Problem Solving. Existing WebEx, Skype or Zoom teleconferencing have become common in enabling voice and video online and real time discussion; stepping into a higher dimension we should expect to see individuals come to the fore each with their individualized CP tool set and offer access to their peer experts;
  • Emergence of marketplaces for novel objects, products and services. CG4 class CP's are already spawning new products and services; one case in point can be seen with the availability of organizations offering vector database services to host extended memory for LLM's; the existing CG4 offers a broad range and depth of capability; for specific purposes however fine tuning is indicated; looking forward a short way down the road we should expect to see organizations offering their services or tools that facilitate the fine tuning task; the ability to fine tune a LLM will mean that there will be an explosion in the range, sophistication and depth of capability of LLM based tools;
  • Novel and Inexplicable Disruptions Of service providers such as wireless or other online capabilities. The recent ransom-ware attacked that happened in Las Vegas in the US underscore the reality of malicious use of netcentric tools as weapons; as netcentric attacks were beginning to ramp up several years ago a favorite vector of attack was to use the distributed denial of service (DDOS) approach; in this approach hundreds or thousands of PC's were redirected to request a response to a specific web server; the requests were repeated endlessly until the hosting server was overwhelmed and was unable to respond; the result was that the website timed out; it became inaccessible; a variation on this approach can be used with comparable tools but targeted in a coordinated fashion at mobile phones; the result can be a combination traffic management attack combined with mobile phone attacks; that this is plausible is corroborated by the fact that users of such services as Tik Tok are able to geolocate a specific individuals location as well as launch other forms of disruption to that individual's mobile phone; were many individuals phones to be used as an attack vector then many people could find themselves trapped in a traffic gridlock and unable to reach others; the Israeli Pegasus tool has made very clear that it is fully capable of seizing control of any mobile phone on the planet;
  • High Risk/Payoff Early Adapters. The early adaptors will explore the new terrain and gain the advantages that those who have mapped out the advantageous terrain is relative to the pitfalls. We should see a proliferation of tools that facilitate fine tuning, simplification of incorporation of vector databases that dramatically expand on a CP's ability to access a specific domain or set of knowledge domains.

Might the various access modalities that are available to one group have positive or negative implications for other groups.

  • Early vs. Late Adapters. This pattern appears to repeat itself; therefore we should expect to see the same thing happen; those who can leverage these capabilities will define the new high ground; the rest will play catch up; or simply be left behind "in the past";
  • Increasingly Chaotic Anecdotal Realities. Further fragmentation appears to be emerging as the new normal; deep fake news reports, conspiracy theories are likely to abound; new services will emerge comparable to Ground News wherein reporting sources will be ranked in terms of bias and reliability.
  • Phenotypical Bifurcation. Currently the perceptible difference between individuals who are adept with a new technology vs. those who are not is typically not obvious; going forward the differences may remain somewhat obscure but the distance between the two categories are likely to widen to the point that one might as well identify the one group - early adapters and innovators as being members of a different phenotype compared to those who are slow to adapt; with the former group becoming adept at navigating the new reality in effect leaving the latter group to navigate with poor dexterity;
  • Skills Explosion - Generalists & Specialists. New skill collection will emerge with the new environment; the explosion of the World Wide Web led to new categories of individual who were adept at web site creation, with the vast expansion of web sites the need for search emerged which led to organizations that organized and indexed the population of existing and new web sites; these refined their reason for existence by ranking and thereby promoting various sites; this led to the entirely new skill of search engine optimization (SEO); myriad new services have emerged such as virtual private networking, ad blocking and automatic notifications; the new environment will experience a comparable emergence of specialist skills that will facilitate usage of this new "fire";

Interface: Cases, Details


Interface - Question. The question as posed is to answer is how will differing groups or communities make use of this new technology. As in, how might one group intrinsically gain new advantage relative to others. In the case of zero sum or non-zero sum situations how might this technology confer advantage (or disadvantage) by one group relative to others.

Interface - Answer. Large Language Models represent an expansion of the possible. Entirely new sets of possibilities are emerging as a result. Answering the question of how different groups will use this new technology and how they will gain or lose advantage will depend upon how they navigate their way into this new realm. As of early 2024 there were several pathways forward. These included:

  • Prompt Engineering.
  • Super-Prompting.
  • Fine Tuning.
  • Targeted Tools and Uses.
  • Autonomous Agent Tools.

Cognitive Prosthetics. In order to provide context it might be helpful to consider that the world has seen massive advances in technology, science, industry and commerce as a result of the hardware and software tools that we have come to take for granted. The include such commonly available tools as Microsoft Office, image editing, video construction and many other highly specialized software tools. These tools enable the design and creation of incredibly sophisticated products such as massive ocean cruse liners as well as amazingly sophisticated nuclear powered submarines. In all cases these tools typically have specialized access mechanisms. They typically require hours to days of specialized training to become conversant in their use. Then weeks or months of hands on practice to develop expertise and competence.

Advanced Cognitive Prosthetics (APCs - First Generation). This latest generation of tools should be considered as representing advanced cognitive prosthetics. This is because the means of access allows for direct verbal interaction and communication. At face value this might seem like a huge leap. However it must be kept in mind that in order to capitalize on systems of this order of sophistication the level of sophistication of the user is crucial. Their ability to fully leverage the power of these systems is grounded on the fact that they possess deep understanding of what the system is capable of. The converse side of the equation is the reality that verbal communication is inherently low bandwidth. Despite that being the case the availability of a conversational ACP means that new possibilities for exploring the search for solutions is now at another level.

Advanced Cognitive Prosthetics (APCs Second Generation). Large Language Models (LLM’s) such as ChatGPT4, LLAMA or DeepMind are software tools that function as powerful prosthetics. They bear resemble to the most sophisticated 3D printer or CRISPR-CAS13 genomic editing tool. They impart unheard of versatility and power to a competent user. Therefore we view LLM’s and their peers are advanced cognitive prosthetics (ACP’s). We expect to see them being used to further enhance already existing processes or tasks in ways that have heretofore not been imagined.

Advanced Conformal Cognitive Prosthetics (ACCP). The current generation of LLM’s tools that enhance existing cognitive functioning and task completion in ways that are very comparable to having a knowledgeable assistant in performing an already known or defined task.

In this view a ACP's traits could be viewed from the perspective of a surgeon's glove. In this case it would be like enhancing the glove with a variety of unobtrusively incorporated supporting tools. Continuing with this metaphor one might imagine that the fabric of the glove has a built in scalpel, light, laser, magnifying lens, clamps and suturing tools.

Keeping the reality of different groups gaining or losing advantage we expect that existent interactions between varying communities will continue as before. The sophistication and pace of exchange will vary however.

New Day Same Problem. Different groups will seize this new technology and search for ways in which to further their existing positions. This means that existing operational or transactional approaches will be preserved but modified as this new technology’s new capabilities and limitations become increasingly evident.

Prompt Engineering. Repeated use of LLM has placed focus on the crucial role of being able to pose useful queries to the system. LLM's possess a great deal of knowledge that is generally opaque to a user. The specific forms of response or knowledge is intrinsically present in the system however eliciting relevant responses that illuminate that knowledge is challenging. Therefore we are seeing a rise in the category of users or super-users who construct highly focused prompts for specific or broad use.

Domain Query Experts. Prompt Engineering has already revealed an iteration when it comes to accessing and using a LLM. In the case of broad availability of open source LLM's several groups have emerged who place focus on formulating highly effective prompts. These prompts are described as being "Super Prompts". Typically these Super Prompts incorporate multiple refinement structures that direct the LLM to perform a query in highly sophisticated ways. Early prompts used what have been called chain of thought approaches.

A tree of thought is a more powerful form of prompting. It enables more sophisticated queries to be posed to an LLM. With the tree of thought a prompt would direct the LLM to perform its functioning in a manner that resulted in parallel actions being executed against the LLM.

forest of thought are even more powerful querying techniques that facilitate deeper access into the LLM's capabilities.

LangChain. This is a development framework that a very knowledgeable software developer would use to construct domain or task specific tools that use an LLM as a core element.


Recent developments have emerged that place focus on providing very sharp and targeted queries to a LLM. This new approach is characterized by what are known as Super Prompts. In this case a prompt is constructed

Darwinian Escalation Ladder. This will prove to be a continuing journey. This new technology is self replenishing and self extensible. Therefore answering the question of how different groups will interact as the modalities of interaction will constantly change.

Current Snapshot. Therefore at most answering this question can only be tentative and iterative. Any current characterization of how individuals or groups will use this new technology can only be momentary. Subsequent characterizations will require modification from insights that will be refined and developed over time.

Known. Therefore in order to move forward suggests approaching this question from a relatively obtuse starting point. By this we mean that the means of using or sharpening and focusing on the ability of this capability over time.

By way of example. These fall into a small group that suggest how it is currently being used. What can immediately be identified are the means whereby a LLM is initially trained. Subsequent iterations of use will reveal that generic LLM’s can have their performance improved. There are several means wherein further performance improvements are suggested by several venues. These arise as a result of how LLM’s function and are brought forward for broad or general use.

Categories. In subsequent sections of this document the reader will find a short list of known areas or activities which are known to be impacted by advances in the world of CP’s.

  • Teaching/Training/Advising/Entertaining.
  • Informing/Persuading.
  • Analysis.
  • Summarizing.
  • Illuminating/Discovering.
  • Subverting/Suborning/Disabling This is a live map of world wide net-centric threats. Looking forward we would expect to see the frequency and sophistication of these attacks to increase pace and tempo.
  • Malicious Dual use ACP tools will be used for hacking or other forms of net-centric attacks.

Examples. Cases already exist where an existing trade, skill or profession have large populations of individuals who use their skills in these areas.

Local/Sequestered GPT Instances.

Deep Fake Tools.

  • Voice. The ability to clone a person's voice with a high degree of fidelity and accuracy increases the range of constructive as well as malicious uses that this new technology can be applied to.
  • Imagery. Tools such as MidJourney and Dall-E are capable of creating imagery that is indistinguishable from photographic imagery. The trend toward increasingly lifelike imagery will simply continue.
  • Video. The ability to construct a video from any narrative is now possible with existing deep fake video editing software. Using tools that enable face swapping means that any person whose face has or can be captured in a public venue can merged with t he image of a prominent person such as a politician or cinematic figure. Moreover anything that the fake video providers might want that public person to appear to be saying can now be done seamlessly to the point that it is almost impossible to determine if that public figure actually said what was presented.

Fine Tuning.

  • LoRa.
  • Bulk User Curated.
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