Darwin2049/ChatGPT4/InterfaceTableSandbox
The central problem in recent developments stems from the human inability to process rapid nonlinear change. Change that happens in a relatively linear fashion and at a slow pace enables most people to adapt. However change that happens geometrically as with recent deep learning systems is much more difficult to incorporate.
Cognitive prosthetic based quantum systems will completely eclipse current incarnations of all existing CG4 based systems5: Quantum computing devices are already demonstrating their ability to solve problems in seconds or minutes that classical von Neuman computing machines require decades, centuries or even millennia to solve. The departure from classical computing using collections of zero or one binary digits is severely limited when compared to how logic can be represented using quantum bits (qubits). With qubits large numbers of simultaneous true/false states can exist simultaneously. This is inherent within the realities of quantum mechanics. The interested observer is advised to pursue a more in depth study of the subject of quantum mechanics, entanglement, uncertainty, particle/wave duality as well as the other fundamental features that are known to operate at the quantum level.
TableSandBox
OpenAI - ChatGPT4. In what follows we attempt to address several basic questions about the onrushing progress with the current focus of artificial intelligence. There are several competing actors in this space. These include OpenAI, DeepMind, Anthropic, and Cohere. A number of other competitors are active in the artificial intelligence market place. But for purposes of brevity and because of the overlap we will limit focus on ChatGPT4 (CG4). Further, we focus on several salient questions that that raise questions of safety, risk and prospects.
OVERVIEW. Specifically, risks that either involve or actually are:
- Interfacing/Access: How different groups can or will interact with, respond to and be affected by this new capability; Might the various access modalities that are available to one group have positive or negative implications for other groups.
Developments in the accessibility and capabilities of CG4 strongly suggest that the full implications of this new technology are very difficult to grasp or characterize as of this observation point in time. This is because it introduces tools and means whose capabilities go far beyond anything seen so far. Why might this be suggested?
- CG4
- is recursive: it is capable of creating instances of itself that can be dispatched to autonomously and asynchronously perform specialized tasks;
- can be fine tuned: a user can include domain specific knowledge that facilitates its ability to provide responses to areas of interest to the user;
- cognitive focus can be targeted to specific areas: with the combination of fine tuning and availability of third party vector data bases CG4 can be elaborated and focused on an almost endless range of topics and their combinations;
- can be configured to interact with other knowledge systems: a user that wishes incorporate capabilities from IBM Watson or Cyc create portals to these knowledge sources;
- can become the core element in a far larger composite capability: large to very large combinations of knowledge sources or CP's can be combined to create systems that dwarf current iterations;
- allows for interaction to be calibrated to the skill of the user: user facility and skill level typically increase with usage; CG4 can calibrate its interaction level accordingly;
OBSERVATIONS. These premises suggest that we should expect to see
- major advance: knowledge and cognitive prosthetics that completely eclipse everything known to date;
- increasingly sophisticated: the ability to scale CG4 with other systems might be comparable to constructing an ocean going cruise liner (note: this video is included only for purposes of suggested scale and sophistication);
- encompassing insights: access to the full range of human knowledge will become routine;
- breakthrough capabilities: entirely new mechanisms for gaining insight into the most intractable problems will come within reach of knowledgeable users;
- black swan: the possibilities for heretofore novel and unanticipated disruptive usage will mushroom;
- social realignments: the social contract will oblige a reevaluation and renegotiation;
REASONS.
- Interfacing/Access: How different groups can or will interact with, respond to and be affected by this new capability; Might the various access modalities that are available to one group have positive or negative implications for other groups.
| INNOVATORS | CAPABILITY | IMPACT |
|---|---|---|
| * | MESSAGING SPECIALISTS | * |
| * | MARKET ANALYSTS | * |
| * | SPECIALTY EDUCATORS | * |
| * | KNOWLEDGE PROVIDERS | * |
| * | KNOWLEDGE REFINERS | * |
| * | ADVISORS | * |
| * | IMMERSIVE ENTERTAINMENT | * |
| * | INTERFACE DESIGNERS | * |
| * | TRANSACTION FACILITATORS | * |
| * | API DESIGNERS | * |
| * | COMPOSITORS | * |
| EARLY/LATE ADAPTERS | CAPABILITY | IMPACT |
|---|---|---|
| * | MESSAGING SPECIALISTS | PERSUASION |
| * | MARKET ANALYSTS | SENTIMENT ANALYSIS |
| * | SPECIALTY EDUCATORS | ANCHORS/LINKERS |
| * | KNOWLEDGE PROVIDERS | KNOWLEDGE CONSUMERS |
| * | KNOWLEDGE REFINERS | INFLUENCERS |
| * | ADVISORS | CLIMBERS |
| * | IMMERSIVE ENTERTAINMENT | INFLUENCERS |
| * | INTERFACE DESIGNERS | INTERPRETERS |
| * | FACILITATORS | TREND SETTERS |
| * | API DESIGNERS | TECHNICAL SPECIALISTS |
| * | COMPOSITORS | SPECIALISTS |
RISKS.
| EARLY/LATE ADAPTERS | CAPABILITY | IMPACT |
|---|---|---|
| * | Increased risks of social disruption | PERSUASION |
| * | Erosion of consensus of social, political reality | INTERACTION |
| * | Deep fake narratives | PERSUASION |
| * | Proliferation of gray, black markets | INTERACTION |
| * | Dramatically improved interpersonal and CP communications capabilities | PERSUASION |
| * | human-human interactions will improve | INTERACTION |
| * | someone who might not be current | PERSUASION |
| * | the availability of richer communications tools | INTERACTION |
| * | the recently demonstrated Google-Duplex voice interface | INTERACTION |
| * | greater semantic transparency | PERSUASION |
| * | conformal interfaces | INTERACTION |
SUMMATION
| INTERFACE. Topics | Category | Risk Type |
|---|---|---|
| Innovators vs Laggards | Constructive | Malicious |
| Selective Usage | Selective Usage | Selective Notation |
| Same Wine New Bottle | Selective Usage | Recursive Notation |
| How will they be affected by this new capability | Personalized Tutors | Interactive Audio Books |
| Personalized Tutors | Highly Individualized Skills | Selective Targeting |
| Interactive Audio Books | Novel Capabilities | Gray Market |
| Access modalities advantages/disadvantages | Highly Conformal | Highly Advantageous |