Darwin2049/chatgpt4 omega political

OpenAI - ChatGPT4.
In what follows we attempt to address several basic questions about the onrushing progress with the current focus of artificial intelligence. There are several competing actors in this space. These include OpenAI, DeepMind, Anthropic, and Cohere. A number of other competitors are active in the artificial intelligence market place. But for purposes of brevity and because of the overlap we will limit focus on ChatGPT4 (CG4). Further, we focus on several salient questions that that raise questions of safety, risk and prospects.
Overview
Specifically, risks that involve or are:

• Interfacing/Access: how will different groups interact with, respond to and be affected by it; might access modalities available to one group have positive or negative implications for other groups;
  

Interfacing - Synthesis.

• Political/Competitive: how might different groups or actors gain or lose relative advantage; also, how might it be used as a tool of control. We should expect that groups with well focused public agendas will seize the opportunity to use the most advanced tools available to further their fortunes. The nature of any political system means cutting a pie of finite size. The members of any group can be counted on to on the lookout for any means to further their standing with their constituencies. Therefore we should expect to see messaging from those political groups with the technical sophistication to use the new knowledge based tools to refine and tailor their messaging.
  Proof of this can be seen in the Netflix documentary called "The Great Hack". During the documentary the viewer is presented with the process of how voter information was used to target highly specific messages to prospective voters. The political campaigns that present considerable detail on how this technology was used included the American presidential election of 2016. The other political campaign that is discussed was how the company called Cambridge Analytica targeted messaging to British voters to vote in favor of the Brexit initiative.

Observations. These premises suggest that we should expect to see

• video content these will purport to be factual but will be false; the level of sophistication will make it almost impossible to assess the truth or falsity of the assertions contained within them;
• highly detailed, specific messages these will speak directly to particular hot button issues;
• finely tuned and reasoned messages they will present the impact and consequences of specific policy proposals; these will present direct focus on how individuals, groups and constituencies will be impacted over varying spans of time;
• proliferation of supply chain elements these will specialize in particular aspects of message creation; these will provide video and audio in any form or variety of ethnic or demographic group, creation and modification of any voice, including historical or current public figures; all of the elements for the development and delivery of these new capabilities already exist;
• gray and black market products/services these can include content or material that would be considered slanderous or libelous;

In summary format:
Political.
Possible Favorable.
Continually advancing AI systems will impact all aspects of political reality; if we consider what the major headings that a review of political realities consists of we typically see the group being in: messaging, narratives, issues awareness, voter registration campaigns, legal civil actions, coalition building, campaign management, candidate support. There other other focal points but these should suffice to form a basis on which to make some observations. What positives might we see?

• improved messaging; in most political environments the ability to communicate with a constituency can make the difference between winning or losing an electoral contest; in the city of Chicago a major blizzard struck the city in the late 1970's; the mayor at the time claimed that the city was diligently working on snow removal; news reports showing traffic major streets and roads at complete standstills by various news agencies showed a very different picture; unfortunately for the sitting mayor this snow storm happened not long before a mayoral election; the result was that what should have been a safe seat was lost to a challenger; for an office holder the ability to be ahead of events and competitors is crucial; existing tools enable a sitting office holder to prepare messaging allows for finely tuned context, imagery and narratives to far more specific constituencies; going forward when coupled with CG4 class tools the messaging process will be informed higher dimensional tools that allow for the inclusion of voter sentiment, sensitivity to specific terms, images or issues, recognition and identification of potential points of conflict between constituencies and ultimately finely honed and crafted multi media messages; those without the skills needed for these highly sophisticated messaging abilities will become road kill;
• more efficient political action, reaction feedback loops, more responsive government and issues resolution;
• coalition building; within any polity the rush of ongoing events can lead to conditions wherein some form of response is required in order to prompt action from policy makers; in recent years the issues associated with immigration and its impact on local economics has become a very hot topic; the reality that there have been various special interest groups that benefit from immigration and cheap labor has only gradually come to light; in order to respond and assert local needs various local community groups have been obliged to scramble to join together to bring countering messages to policy holders in order to petition for relief; CG4 offers capabilities that can leverage insights about local needs and suggest how effective actions can be taken to oblige office holders and their associated policy experts to more critically assess how to balance competing needs and interests;
• candidate promotion; elective office mandates that a candidate present himself or herself to their electorate and present policy proposals and positions that can elicit voter turnout sufficient to win an elective contest; typically this is a hotly contested process; the candidate capable of identifying the interests and needs of a range of constituencies and speaking directly to each of them requires very careful public maneuvering; authenticity, sincerity, transparency and conviction are all qualities that become publicly evident during a political contest; coupled with competency and insight into the local issues will make or break a candidate's chances of winning a contest; therefore the greater insight and knowledgeability available to the candidate the better their chances will be of coming out ahead; because of the fact that in a typical political contest there will be massive numbers of the voting public whose individual members bring attentiveness to how a candidate presents him or herself to the electorate means that extreme caution is obliged; in the case of electoral contests the maxim applies: "you can fool all of the people some of the time, you can fool some of the people all of the time but you can not fool all of the people all of the time; therefore any candidate running for office must be capable of getting and remaining ahead of events should they take a sudden or unexpected turn;

Possible Risks.

• extremely convincing but false narratives, rumors, scandals, smears and gadfly efforts; open source technology is available today (Oct 2023) that can be used to create deep fake video's of a person's face with the most amazing accuracy; the realism and attention detail make it all but impossible to determine if a video of a known or public figure is really them or if it is an artificially constructed fake; the possibilities are endless when it comes to imagining and constructing narratives, then having real individuals put voice to them; but while using the facial image of someone else; state of the art face mapping software has reached a level of sophistication such that it is no longer possible to determine if an actual person made a particular statement or if it was a cleverly synthesized version.
• increased social disruption associated with economic dislocation and disenfranchisement; we should expect to see the emergence of "message factories" that generate whatever message is desired; these fabricated messages can then be targeted and delivered to whatever audience one might chose to accomplish one's ends;

• manipulation and persuasion; the former British company known as Cambridge Analytica developed a market presence and highly favorable reputation for being able to construct highly convincing and persuasive political marketing campaigns; the company was affiliated with the American company Facebook and had access to a massive amount of information about values and sentiments; in one case Cambridge Analytica used its access to construct messaging targeted at registered US voters; these messages were structured to capitalize on known sentiments and construct messaging that was targeted down to surprisingly small segments of the overall voting population - and with remarkable success; in another effort the company constructed targeted messages to British subjects regarding how to vote on the upcoming BREXIT initiative; later discoveries made clear that Cambridge Analytica had used its access to the Facebook database of millions of voters; insights were gained using an incredibly detailed repository of personal sentiments and values;

• prediction; the website known as FastCompany.com published a report in 2004 about a study performed by Microsoft Corp. the study involved developing the metrics needed to predict the whereabouts and travel patterns of individual; the report showed that the researchers were able to predict where most people would be 285 days hence with a high degree of probability; coupling this capability with a CP4 type capability would enable those using this functionality to make predictions, plans and preparations far in advance for actions to be carried out; this suggests that with sufficient lead time an actor can create a highly detailed plan that can cover for all possible contingencies or otherwise unexpected events that might complicate executing a mission; the ability to plan and prepare a successful mission will only get better; this would inhere as a result of having a deep insight into the target location and highly routine events as well as a detailed insight into the range of unexpected or otherwise wild card events occurring at a particular location;

• prediction and influencing; the Tom Cruise movie Minority Report proposed a future reality where criminal behavior could be anticipated and whose time and location could be determined beforehand; a premise of the story line involved using deep insight into human behavior to anticipate the location and timing of a future criminal event; in the process the police unit involved in taking down the perpetrator was able to be positioned precisely to intercept the miscreant before he or she completed their criminal action;

• surveillance and control; the 009 BBC miniseries The Last Enemy presented a near future reality in which the central government possessed the tools needed to provide Orwellian awareness and control of the society; the storyline's narrative made use of known existing surveillance technology that provided real time observation and surveillance of all forms of electronic communication; a number of plot elements were based upon factual accounts of known government capabilities; some of the other elements were fictional at the time but have since become factual; the protagonist unwittingly sets in motion the key actions needed to enable a profoundly intrusive surveillance and control regime that monitors all movements or electronic transactions of the inhabitants of Great Britain;

Geopolitical.
The reality of geopolitical shifts demands extremely close attention to any nation state in today's small world. Therefore any and all means of remaining highly attentive to shifts in the movements of alliance, international finance, political treaties is of the utmost crucial importance. Any tool that can facilitate making sense of an extremely broad range of actors and movements is therefore of extreme value; a tool such as a CG4 or variant will enable its owner to identify and act upon opportunities and threats, possibly well before any other actors are even aware of them; existing multi-agent CG4 or other autonomous agent based system will command the highest value;

Possible Favorable.

• Diplomacy - overt, covert.
• Covert actions.
• More effective coalition and alliance building and effective back channel messaging.
• Increasingly reliable and realistic situational gaming environments.
• Coalition and Alliance Building.
• Espionage;
• Conflict Modeling.

Possible Risks.

• Covert Actions;
• Espionage;
• Cnflict Modeling.
• Political Sabotage.
• Unrestricted Warfare.
• False Flag Ops
• Espionage Intellectual Property Rights (IPR) Theft.

Political - Synthesis.

• Evolutionary/Stratification: might new classifications of social categories emerge; were phenotypical bifurcations to emerge would or how would the manifest themselves;

Evolutionary - Synthesis.

• Epistemological/Ethical relativism: how to reconcile ethical issues within a society, between societies; more specifically, might it provide solutions or results that are acceptable to the one group but unacceptable to the other group;

Epistemological - Synthesis

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