User:Darwin2049/ChatGPT4 Intermediate Considerations

Overview
Intermediate considerations so far. If we step back for a moment and summarize what some observers have had to say about this new capability then we might tentatively start with that:

• is based upon and is a refinement of its predecessor, the Chat GPT 3.5 system;
• has been developed using the generative predictive transformer (GPT) model;
• has been trained on a very large data set including textual material that can be found on the internet; unconfirmed rumors suggest that it has been trained on 1 trillion parameters;
• is capable of sustaining conversational interaction using text based input provided by a user;
• can provide contextually relevant and consistent responses;
• can link topics in a chronologically consistent manner and refer back to them in current prompt requests;
• is a Large Language Models that uses prediction as the basis of its actions;
• uses deep learning neural networks and very large training data sets;
• uses a SAAS model; like Google Search, Youtube or Morningstar Financial;
• this technology will continue to introduce novel, unpredictable and disruptive risks;
• a range of dazzling possibilities that will emerge that will be beneficial to broad swathes of society;
• some voices express urgent action to preclude catastrophic outcomes;
• informed geopolitical observers urge accelerated action to further refine and advance the technology lest our rivals and adversaries eclipse us with their accomplishments;
• heretofore unforeseen societal realignments seem to be inevitable;
• recent advances in the physical embodiment of these tools represent a phase shift moment in history, a before-after transition;

So far, we note that we have :

• reviewed CG4’s capabilities;
• noted insights offered by informed observers;
• presented a thumbnail sketch of how CG4 operates;
• identified several risk dimensions and offered a few examples;
• suggested some intermediate observations;

In sum: some observers say that CG4:
is:

• a narrow artificial intelligence;
• an extension of Chat GPT 3.5 capabilities;
• a sophisticated cognitive appliance or prosthetic (CP);
• based upon Generative Predictive Transformer (GPT) model; performs predictive modeling;
• a World Wide Web 24/7 accessible SAAS;
• demonstrates heretofore unexpected emergent behavior;

can:

• converse:
  • explain its responses
  • self critique and improve own responses;
  • responses are relevant, consistent and topically associated;
  • summarize convoluted documents or stories and explain difficult abstract questions
  • calibrate its response style to resemble known news presenters or narrators;
  • understand humor
  • provide convincingly accurate responses to queries (which suggests the need for a New Turing Test);
• reason:
  • about spatial relationships, performing mathematical reasoning;
  • write music and poems
  • reason about real world phenomena from source imagery;
  • grasp the intent of programming code debug, write, improve and explanatory documentation;
  • understand and reason about abstract questions;
  • translate English text to other languages and responding in one hundred languages;
  • score in the 90% level on the SAT, Bar and Medical Exams;

has:

• demonstrated competencies that will disruptively encroach upon current human professional competencies;
• knowledge base, training data sets based upon a 2021 cutoff date;
• very large training data set (books, internet content (purported to be in excess of 1 trillion parameters);
• no theory of mind capability (at present) - future versions might offer it;
• no consciousness, sentience, intentionality, motivation or self reflectivity, are all lacking;
• earlier short term memory; current subscription token limit is 32k (Aug 2023);
• shown novel emergent behavior; observers are concerned that it might acquire facility for deception;
• shown ability to extemporize response elements that do not actually exist (hallucinates);
• shown indications that a derivative (CG5 or later) might exhibit artificial general intelligence (AGI);

Intermediate Summary

• Trajectory. Advances in current artificial intelligence systems have been happening at break-neck speed. New capabilities have been emerging which had been thought to not be possible for several more years. The most recent developments in the guise of autonomous agents as of September 2023 strongly suggest that a new iteration of capabilities will shortly emerge that will cause the whole playing field to restructure itself all over again. Major driving factors that will propel events forward include:
  • Autonomous agent based ensembles. This area is developing very quickly and should be monitored closely. The impact of this development will usher in a qualitative change in terms of what systems based upon large language models are capable of doing.
  • Quantum Computing. The transition to quantum computing will eclipse everything known in terms of how computing based solutions are used and the kinds of problems that will migrate into the zone of solubility and tractability. Problems that are currently beyond the scope of von Neuman based systems will become accessible. The set of possible new capabilities and insights will be profound and can not be guessed at as of this writing in September 2023. Passing the boundary layer between von Neuman based architectures and combined von Neuman and quantum modalities will come to be viewed as a before-after even in history. The difference in capabilities will rival the taming of fire, the invention of writing and the acquisition of agriculture. The risks will likewise be great. The means that rivals will be able to disrupt each other's societies and economies can not be guessed at. In short we should expect a period of turbulence unlike anything seen so far in recorded history.
  • Extended Cognitive Processing Models. Ongoing work in how to determine if consciousness can be synthesized into something operable is ongoing and will increase in terms of salience going forward. The notion that a machine can plausibly exhibit consciousness is a topic that goes back centuries. The more recent attempts at guessing the implications of this prospect range from the earlier Space Odyssey's HAL9000 machine to the more recent variants of "Her" and "Ex Machina". Should this pathway forward yield results then answers to major questions will become imperative. Further, the inherent risks associated with a conscious entity capable of operating at electronic or quantum speeds carries profound implications.

• Concerns. Informed and knowledgeable observers have expressed a range of positions ranging from very favorable to panic. In many cases these positions have been highly localized and limited to events and developments within the US. In others the focus has been on the realities of geopolitics and the presence of determined rivals.
  The very brief sampling of positions thus far is very limited. Going forward we should expect many more voices to join the debate. Some informed observers have already petitioned central government law makers to be more attentive and take note of the rapid pace of developments.

• Risks. Responding to the picture as is in evidence so far strongly suggests that the last major risk category be included, i.e. hypothetical risks. With this full set available it should be possible to offer a preliminary assessment of how risks will manifest. What we can observe is that this is a new technology and it will exhibit applications and consequences comparable to those that have gone before. Specifically this means that there will be groups that benefit from its availability as well as those who will be victimized by it. Only time will tell as more cases are brought to light.