User:Darwin2049/chatgpt4 InterimObservations

Interim Summary Observations Deliberations

An overview and summary so far suggest that if we step back for a moment and summarize what some observers have had to say about this new capability then we might tentatively start with that:

• is based upon and is a refinement of its predecessor, the Chat GPT 3.5 system;
• has been developed using the generative predictive transformer (GPT) model;
• has been trained on a very large data set including textual material that can be found on the internet; unconfirmed rumors suggest that it has been trained on 1 trillion parameters;
• is capable of sustaining conversational interaction using text based input provided by a user;
• can provide contextually relevant and consistent responses;
• can link topics in a chronologically consistent manner and refer back to them in current prompt requests;
• is a Large Language Models that uses prediction as the basis of its actions;
• uses deep learning neural networks and very large training data sets;
• uses a SAAS model; like Google Search, Youtube or Morningstar Financial;

Interim observations and conclusions suggest that

• this technology will continue to introduce novel, unpredictable and disruptive risks;
• a range of dazzling possibilities that will emerge that will be beneficial to broad swathes of society;
• some voices express urgent action to preclude catastrophic outcomes;
• informed geopolitical observers urge accelerated action to further refine and advance the technology lest our rivals and adversaries eclipse us with their accomplishments;
• heretofore unforeseen societal realignments seem to be inevitable;
• recent advances in the physical embodiment of these tools represent a phase shift moment in history, a before-after transition;

At this point we have:

• reviewed CG4’s capabilities;
• taken note of insights offered by informed observers;
• presented a thumbnail sketch of how CG4 operates;
• examined the primary risk dimensions and offered a few examples;
• suggested some intermediate notes and conclusions;

Summarizing: a range of observations say that CG4:
is:

• a narrow artificial intelligence;
• an extension of Chat GPT 3.5 capabilities;
• a highly sophisticated cognitive appliance or prosthetic;
• of several possible models it is based upon the Generative Predictive Transformer (GPT) model and performs predictive modeling;
• a world wide web 24/7 accessible SAAS;

can:

• converse:
  • and explain its responses;
  • self critique and improve own responses;
  • offer responses that are contextually and temporally relevant, consistent and topically associated;
  • summarize convoluted documents or stories and explain difficult abstract questions;
  • calibrate its response style to resemble known news presenters or narrators;
  • understand humor;
  • convincingly accurate responses to queries suggests the need for a New Turing Test;
• reason:
  • about spatial relationships, performing mathematical reasoning;
  • write music and poems
  • reason about real world phenomena from source imagery;
  • grasp the intent of programming code debug, write, improve and explanatory documentation;
  • understand and reason about abstract questions
  • translate between multiple languages as well as respond in one hundred languages;
  • score in the 90%+ level on the SAT, Bar and Medical Exams;

has:

• demonstrated competencies will disruptively encroach upon many current human professional competencies;
• knowledge base, training data sets had 2021 cutoff date but it can be fine tuned with more recent data;
• very large training data set (books, internet content (purported to be in excess of one trillion parameters);
• no theory of mind capability (at present) however future versions might offer highly elaborated variants;
• no consciousness, sentience, intentionality, motivation or self reflectivity are all lacking;
• earlier short term memory; current subscription token limit is 32k (Aug 2023);
• expansion of short term memory attention window size allows for more comprehensive and salient interactions;
• show novel emergent behavior; observers are concerned that it might acquire facility for deception;
• recent theoretical examinations suggest that a variety of artificial consciousness models may be explored near term;
• shown ability to extemporize response elements that do not actually exist (hallucinates);
• current knowledgeable users have demonstrated autonomous multi-agent extensions enabling dramatically greater problems solving capability;
• the ability to directly interact with external systems and knowledge sources such as IBM Watson or Cyc Corp's CYC;
• shown indications that a derivative (CG5 or later) might exhibit artificial general intelligence (AGI);

Intermediate Summary

• Trajectory. Advances in current artificial intelligence systems have been happening at almost break-neck speed. New capabilities have been emerging which had been thought to not be possible for several more years. The most recent developments in the guise of autonomous agents as of September 2023 strongly suggest that a new iteration of capabilities will shortly emerge that will cause the whole playing field to restructure itself all over again. Major driving factors that will propel events forward include:
  • Autonomous agent based ensembles. This area is developing very quickly and should be monitored closely. The impact of this development will usher in a qualitative change in terms of what systems based upon large language models are capable of doing.
  • Quantum Computing. The transition to quantum computing will eclipse everything known in terms of how computing based solutions are used and the kinds of problems that will migrate into the zone of solubility and tractability. Problems that are currently beyond the scope of von Neuman based computational tools will shortly become accessible. The set of possible new capabilities and insights will be profound and can not be guessed at as of this writing in September 2023. Passing the boundary layer between von Neuman based architectures and combined von Neuman and quantum modalities will come to be viewed as a before-after even in history. The difference in capabilities will rival the taming of fire, the invention of writing and the acquisition of agriculture. The risks will likewise be great. The means that rivals will be able to disrupt each other's societies and economies can not be guessed at. In short we should expect a period of turbulence unlike anything seen so far in recorded history.
  • Extended Cognitive Processing Models. Ongoing work in how to determine if consciousness can be synthesized into something operable is ongoing and will increase in terms of salience going forward. The notion that a machine can plausibly exhibit consciousness is a topic that goes back centuries. The more recent attempts at guessing the implications of this prospect range from the earlier Space Odyssey's HAL9000 machine to the more recent variants of 'Samantha' in the movie "Her" or 'Ava' in the movie "Ex Machina".
    Should this pathway forward yield results then answers to major questions will become imperative. Further, the inherent risks associated with a conscious entity capable of operating at electronic or quantum speeds carries profound implications. As of Fall 2023 the full range of implication from a CP capable of instantaneous learning are poorly understood.

• • Novel Cognitive Prosthetic Capabilities will emerge. These will proliferate along the lines of early natural evolution. It will be comparable in elaboration and variety along the lines of a new Cambrian Explosion. The ability to assemble multiple instances of CG4 and its derivatives will enable the creation of processing ensembles that can only be guessed at as of Fall 2023. These new CP ensembles may consist of tens, dozens or hundreds of CP instances.
  • A phase shift moment is imminent. That this is in evidence derives from the fact that at least one major computing enterprise (IBM) has announced the release of a quantum computer with an over 1000 qubit capability. The implications are difficult to grasp due to the prospect that this new era in computing will allow for tackling problems that von Neuman architecture machines can not even approach.

• Concerns. Informed and knowledgeable observers have expressed a range of positions ranging from very favorable to panic. In many cases these positions have been highly localized and limited to events and developments within the US. In others the focus has been on the realities of geopolitics and the presence of determined rivals.
  The very brief sampling of positions thus far is very limited. Going forward we should expect many more voices to join the debate. Some informed observers have already petitioned central government law makers to be more attentive and take note of the rapid pace of developments.

• Risks. Responding to the current picture strongly suggests that the last major risk category must be included, i.e. hypothetical risks. This crucial element will now be addressed. High on the list of topics focus will be brought to
• social and economic considerations;
• novel scientific and technological advancements;
• political and geopolitical advances or set backs as a result of developments by adversaries;
• heretofore unforeseeable power alliances between newly emergent groups and communities with advanced skills and capabilities;