User:Darwin2049/chatgpt4 impressions

The following impressions range from voices in favor of further rapid advancement in the development of artificial intelligence systems like large language models (LLMs) to those who urge extreme rapid progress in the face of geopolitical, geostrategic rivalry. Various voices suggest caution going forward. Other voices suggest that an outright pause be self-imposed on further development.
It is the perception of this observer that the downside risks of a geostrategic rival reaching a possible high ground position is too great of an outcome to risk. That there are intrinsic risks in pursuing further development of CP-type tools is clear. However arriving at a high ground position from which further development, cost/benefit analysis and assessments might be made far outweighs the risks associated with a hostile rival achieving a phase shift moment.

Overview

OpenAI - ChatGPT4. Impressions

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Sentiment and Impressions, An Overview.
Some observers early on were variously favorable and voiced possible moderate caution while others were guarded or expressed caution to serious fear.
Optimism and Interest.

• Dr. Jordan Peterson. During his discussion with Brian Roemmele many salient topics covered. Of note some germane capabilities such as:
  • super prompts; Roemmele revealed that he was responsible for directing CG4 to focus specifically upon the topic that he wished to address and omit the usual disclaimers and preamble information that CG4 is known to issue in response to a query.
  • discussions with historical figures; they posited that it is possible to engage with CG4 such that it can be directed to respond to queries as if it were a specific individual; the names of Milton, Dante, Augustine and Nietzsche. Peterson also mentions that a recent project of his is to enable a dialog with the King James Bible.
  • among the many interesting topics that their discussion touched on was the perception that CG4 is more properly viewed as a 'reasoning engine' rather than just a knowledge base; essentially it is a form of intelligence amplification;
• Dr. Alan Thompson. Thompson focuses his video production on recent artificial intelligence events. His recent videos have featured CG4 capabilities via an avatar that he has named "Leta". He has been tracking the development of artificial intelligence and large language models for several years.
  • Leta is an avatar that Dr. Thompson regularly uses to illustrate how far LLM's have progressed. In a recent post his interaction with Leta demonstrated the transition in capability from the prior underlying system (GPT3) and the newer one (GPT4).
  • Of note are his presentations that characterize where artificial intelligence is at the moment and his predictions of when it might reasonable to expect to witness the emergence of artificial general intelligence.
  • A recent post of his titled In The Olden Days portrays a contrast between how many of societies current values, attitudes and solutions will be viewed as surprisingly primitive in coming years.
• Dr. de Grass-Tyson. A recent episode of the Valuetainment was present with Patrick Bet-David to discuss CG4 with Dr. de Grass-Tyson. A lot of people in Silicon Valley will be out of a job.
  • Salient observations that were brought forward was that the state of artificial intelligence at this moment as embodied in the CG4 system is not something to be feared.
  • Rather his stance was that it has not thus far demonstrated the ability to reason about various aspects of reality that no human has ever done yet.
  • He cites a hypothetical example of himself whereby he takes a vacation. While on the vacation he experiences an engaging meeting with someone who inspires him. The result is that he comes up with totally new insights and ideas. He then posits that CG4 will have been frozen in its ability to offer insights comparable to those that he was able to offer prior to his vacation. So the CG4 capability would have to "play catch up". By extension it will always be behind what humans are capable of.

Caution and Concern.

• Dr. Bret Weinstein. Dr. Weinstein has been a professor of evolutionary biology. His most recent teaching post was at Evergreen College in Oregon.
  • In a recent interview on the David Bet-David discussed how quickly the area of artificial intelligence has been progressing. Rogan asked Weinstein to comment on where the field appeared to be at that moment and where it might be going. In response Weinstein's summary was that "we are not ready for this".
  • Their discussion touched on the fact CG4 had shown its ability to pass the Wharton School of Business MBA final exam as well as the United States Medical Licensing Exam. Dr. Weinstein warns that "we are not ready for this."
  • He makes the case that the current level of sophistication that CG4 has demonstrated is already very problematic.
  • By way of attempting to look forward he articulates the prospective risk of how we as humans might grapple with a derivative of CG4 that has in fact become sentient and conscious.

• Dr. Joscha Bach. Bach is a researcher on the topic of artificial consciousness. During an interview with Lex Fridman focuses the discussion on or not a derivative of CG4 could become conscious. Bach makes the case that CG4 is not consciousness, possesses no sentience, intentionality or emotional capability. Therefore expectations that it might spontaneously decide to "best" humans are unfounded by any facts.
  • He states the position that a large language model would not be an effective way to arrive at an entity that possessed self consciousness, sentience, motivation and intentionality.
  • During his response regarding the possibility that CG4 or a derivative become conscious his position was that the very basis of the Large Language Model would not be an appropriate approach to creating any of the processes that appear to underpin human consciousness. His premises include that large language models are more like the mythical golem of Eastern European Seventeen Century literature. Crucially that LLM's have no self reflexivity.
  • LLM's are simply executing tasks until a goal is met. Which again points to the position that "the lights are on but the doors and windows are open and there is nobody home". Rather it would be better to start with self organizing systems rather than predictive LLM's. In the discussion he points out that some form of self-model would have to be discovered by the system and recognize that it was modeling itself.
  • Bach suggests that instead of using a LLM to attempt to arrive at a real time self reflective model of consciousness comparable to human consciousness that we should start from scratch. However interestingly given the willingness to pursue this path he advocates caution.
  • He adds the interesting fact that in order to pursue such a path it would be necessary to move forward from the basis of there being an operating environment that was based upon some form of representation of ground truth. Otherwise the result could develop in which no one really knows who is talking to who. Existing LLM's offer no comparable world-model that an artificial consciousness can embed itself within.
• Dr. Alex Karp (CEO - Palantir). Dr Karp is the CEO of a data mining company. Palantir has focused on providing analysis services to a range of national security and national defense organizations. The company has developed its relationship with these agencies over two decades. It espouses the crucial role that advanced technology provides to the safety and security of the nation as well as how it provides global stability in several different venues.
  • He has put a spotlight many Silicon Valley technology companies shy away from supporting US national security. This despite the fact that their successes stem directly from the fact that the US has provided the economic, political, educational, legal and military infrastructure that has enabled them to incorporate, grow and develop.
  • Given Palantir's close relationships with national security and national defense organizations it has a far greater sense of the realities and risks of not forging ahead with all possible speed to equip the nations defenses and provide those charged with seeing to the nation's security.

Caution to Alarm.

• Elizer Yudkowski. Yudkowski is a polymath who has been following the development of LLM's for several years. The release of CG4 has resulted in his frequent presence speaking out publicly about the risks that humanity may face extinction should a artificial general intelligence emerge from current research.
  • During an interview with Lex Fridman expresses fear that the field of artificial intelligence is progressing so rapidly that humans could find themselves facing the prospect of an extinction event. His concern is that it could evolve with such rapidity that we as humans would be unable to assess its actual capacities and as such be unable to make reliable determinations as to whether it was presenting its authentic self or if it was presenting a dissembling version of itself. His position is that artificial intelligence will kill us all.
  • He has made several presentations regarding the potential down sides and risk that artificial intelligence might cause. His specific concerns are that a form of intelligence could crystallize as a result of normal operation in one or another of the current popular systems. These generally are considered to be the large language models such as Chat GPT4.
  • The DeepMind system is one that is believed to be comparably sophisticated. The Meta variant known as Llama is also of sufficient sophistication that an unexpected shift in capability as a result of some unforeseen emergent capability could escape the control of its human operators.
  • A recent development at the Meta artificial intelligence lab resulted in pausing the activities of an emergent capability. This capability seemed to suggest that two instances of the AI were exchanging messages using a private language that they had just developed.
• Elon Musk. Musk was an early investor in OpenAI when it was still as private startup.
  • He has tracked development of artificial intelligence in both the US as well as DeepMind in the UK. He has recently enlisted 1100 other prominent personalities and researchers to sign a petition to presented to the US Congress regarding the risks and dangers of artificial intelligence.
  • His observation is that regulation has always happened by government after there has been a major adverse or tragic development. In the case of artificial intelligence his position is that the pace of development is such that a moment in time is quickly approaching when a singularity moment arrives and passes.
  • It is at that moment that humanity unwittingly unleashing an AGI is a very serous risk. may discover that it has unleashed a capability that it is unable to control.
• Gordon Chang. Says that the US must forge ahead with all possible speed and effort to maintain its lead against the PRC in the area of artificial intelligence.

Chang asserts that the PRC culture, values and objectives are adversarial and that they will use whatever means necessary to achieve a commanding edge and achieve dominance with this capability in all of its geopolitical endeavors. His earlier public statements have been very explicit that the West faces an existential crisis from the CCP and that it will use any and all means, including artificial intelligence to gain primacy.
Indirect Alarm. In several cases highly knowledgeable individuals have expressed concern about how the PRC has been positioning itself to become the world leader in artificial intelligence. Their backgrounds range from journalism, diplomacy, the military and Big Tech.
Some observers have explicitly suggested that the role of artificial intelligence will be crucial going forward. In a few cases their pronouncement preceded the release of such powerful tools as GPT3 and GPT4.
Following are several individuals who have been raising attention or sounding the alarm about the risk that external geopolitical actors pose. We should note in reviewing them that in the case of those PRC and CCP watchers the risks are clear, imminent and grave.

• Kai-Fuu Lee. Is a well known and respected expert in the area of artificial intelligence. Is known to be leading the charge to make the PRC into a world class leader in AI, an AI Superpower.
  • He leads SinoVentures, which is a venture capital firm with the charter to start up five successful startup per year.
  • Recent pronouncements have suggested that advances in artificial intelligence can be co-operative rather than adversarial and confrontational. Events in the diplomatic sphere suggest otherwise.
  • His efforts provide the gestation environment needed to launch potential billion dollar major concerns.
• Bill Gertz is an author who has published several books that focus on technology and national security. A recent book titled "Deceiving the Sky" warns of a possible preemptive action on the part of the PRC. His work details how the CCP has launched a detailed, highly focused set of actions that will enable it to marginalize and neutralize the current "hegemon", i.e. the USA.
  • He posits that the US could find itself at a serious disadvantage in a contest with the PLA and the PLAN.
  • By way of clarification he points out that the leadership of the CCP has been building out an increasingly sophisticated military which it intends to use to modify, by force if necessary the global geopolitical order.
  • Additionally other references such as that explicitly expressed by President Vlad Putin of the Russian Federation state clearly that control of artificial intelligence will be a make or break development for whatever nation-state reaches the high ground first.
• Dr. Graham Allison. is a professor at Harvard University. A recent work that he published in 2018 is titled Destined for War. Dr Allison places front and center the reality that only a minority of power transitions have been peaceful. Of sixteen power transitions fourteen have been resolved through war.
  • In this volume he develops the position that there have been sixteen historical instances where a new comer power challenged the reigning hegemonic power with the intent of displacing it.
  • Of those sixteen only two were transitioned in a peaceful manner. The rest were accomplished by armed conflict.
  • In several chapters Dr. Allison details how the leadership of the CCP has focused the economic development of the PRC. He presents detailed charts and graphs that clarify the importance of not only national GDP numbers but also the crucial importance of purchasing power parity (PPP).
  • His thesis takes the direction that the PRC has an innate advantage due to is far larger population base. Further, the leadership of the CCP possesses authoritarian powers to control the population and the narrative that informs the population.
  • He shows how a pivot point will be reached at which the purchasing power parity point (PPP) of the PRC will exceed that of the USA. When this happen then
    • a) the economy of the PRC will not only already be larger than that of the USA but will also
    • b) be able to wield greater political and geopolitical influence world wide;
    • c) and that during this period of time the risks of armed conflict will reach a point of maximum risk.
• Amb. (ret.) Dr. Michael Pillsbury. Deep, lucid insight into CCP, PRC doctrine, philosophy, world view (Mandarin fluent).
  • Dr. Pillsbury details how the CCP has mobilized the entire population of the PRC to prepare to seize the high ground in science and technology - through any means necessary.
  • Hundred Year Marathon goes into great detail how a succession of CCP leadership has been gradually repositioning the PRC to be a major global competitor. He makes very clear that the PRC is a command economy comparable to how the former USSR functioned.
  • He clarifies how the CCP leadership has focused its thinking to position itself to displace what it views as the "reigning hegemon - the USA". A study of this work makes very clear that the CCP leadership take very seriously its charter to become the world's global leader in all things.
  • The list of all crucial science and technology is presented that shows that the CCP plans to own and control anything that matters. That the PRC is an authoritarian society is made very clear as well.
  • Dr. Pillsbury provides background and context into the values and mindset of the current CCP leader, Xi Jinping. When a fuller recognition of just how implacably focused this leader is then there might be a sea change in how the US and the West refocuses its efforts to meet this growing challenge.
• Brig. Gen (ret.) Robert Spalding III. Provides a catalog of insightful military risks, concerns.
  • Stealth War: details how the CCP has directed its various agencies to identify and target US vulnerabilities; he clarifies that the CCP will use unrestricted warfare, i.e. unrestricted warfare i.e. warfare through any other means necessary to accomplish its goals.
  • The CCP is the main, existential threat: In chapter after chapter he details how the CCP uses intellectual property theft - which is the actual know-how and detailed design information needed to replicate a useful new high tech or scientific breakthrough; thus saving themselves years and billions of dollars;
    • financial leverage: it uses American financial markets to raise money to develop its own military base; yet its companies are not subjected to the same accounting and reporting standards as are US companies;
    • espionage: it uses spies to identify, target and acquire American know how, technology and science for its own advantage which it then perfects at minimum cost and uses against its adversaries;
    • debt trap diplomacy: several countries belatedly came to recognize the dangers of the Belt and Road initiative; the PRC approach meant appearing to offer a great financial or infrastructure deal to a third world country for access to that country's infrastructure; when the country found itself struggling with meeting the terms of the agreement it discovered that the CCP would unilaterally commandeer some part of the country's infrastructure as a form of repayment;
    • unfair trade practices: such as subsidized shipping for any and all products made in the PRC; trading partners are faced with import tariffs;
    • trading partner surrender: it also demands that the Western partner share with it any and all practices and lessons learned by the Western partner;
    • infiltration of American society with subversive CCP institutions such as Confucian Institutes on college campuses that are front organization that serve as collection points for espionage activities;
• Dr. A. Chan and Lord Ridley published VIRAL IN 2021. Though subsequent investigative reporting did not directly address the questions of how AI tools like DeepMind or CG4 might be used to fabricate a novel pathogen the subsequent reporting has made are clear that these tools can definitely be employed to drive research on the creation of extremely dangerous pathogens.
  • Their work provides a deeply insightful chronological genesis and progressions of COVID-19 pandemic.
  • Dr Chan and Lord Ridley provide a detailed and extremely well documented case that draws attention directly to the influence that the CCP has had with the World Health Organization(WHO). It then used that influence to deflect attention away from its own role in attempting to claim that the SARS COVID-19 outbreak happened as a result of zoonotic transmission.
  • The CCP leadership attempted to build the case that the outbreak happened as a result of mishandling of infected animals at a "wet market". A "wet market" is an open air facility that specializes in the purchase of live exotic animals. These animals are typically offered for personal consumption. Some are presented because of claims of their beneficial health effects.
  • They go on to describe how the CCP oversaw misinformation regarding its pathogenicity and infectivity. Their account shows that they had a number of extremely insightful contributors working with them.
  • Their efforts the team was able to show how the Hunan Institute of Virology (HIV) attempted to confuse crucial insight about the COVID-19 virus.
  • Crucial insights that are offered include facts such as a) genetically modified mice were used in a series of experiments. These genetically modified or chimeric mice had human airway tissue spliced into their DNA.
  • The following additional notes are included as a means to draw attention to the reality of achieving advances in biotechnology at a rate outpacing what has already happened with the SARS-COV2 virus.
    • Passaging: The technique called "passaging" is a means of increasing the infectivity and lethality of a particular pathogen through targeted rapid evolution. It is use to introduce a pathogen, in this case a virus into a novel environment. This means that the virus has no "experience" of successfully lodging itself into the new organism. Likewise that organism immune system has no experience in combatting it;
    • Chimeric Organism are used: Initially a target set of organisms, in the case of SARS-COVID19, chimeric mice with the intended pathogen.
    • Chimeric Offspring: several generations of chimeric mice were used to incorporate genetic information using human DNA;
    • Specific Target: DNA that was spliced into the virus genome was selected to human airway passage tissue; the pathogen was explicitly intended to attack the organism's respiratory organs;
    • Initial Infection: These mice were then inoculated with the SARS-COVID19 virus; initially they showed little reaction to the pathogen.
    • Iterative Infections were performed: These mice produced offspring which were subsequently inoculated with the same pathogen;
    • Directed Evolution via Passaging: After a number of iterations the result was a SARS-COVID19 virus that had undergone several natural mutation steps and was now extremely infective and lethal; this more dangerous variant mandated highly specialized and sophisticated personal protection equipment and an extremely isolated work environment;
    • Increasing Infectivity: Iterative passaging increased the infectivity and lethality of the virus as expected;
    • Highly Contagious and Dangerous: Ultimately the infectivity and lethality of the mutated virus reached a stage where it could be weaponized;
    • Accidental Handling: Any kind of release, whether intended or unintended could successfully spread the virus via aerosol, or airborne transmission ;
    • Only the HIV could do this: Ongoing reporting and investigative work has conclusively demonstrated that the HIV was the source of the COVID-19 pandemic;
    • National Lockdown: Of note is the extremely curious fact that the CCP imposed a nationwide lockdown that went into effect 48 hours after being announced.
    • With "Leaks": The CCP imposed extreme lockdown measures which in some cases proved to be extreme measures.
    • International Spreading was Allowed: Further puzzling behavior on the part of the CCP is the fact that international air travel out of the PRC continued for one month after the lockdown.
    • Military Applications: Subsequent research by the team and their collaborators have demonstrated that the HIV has been driven by military, bioweapon considerations.
    • Unrestricted Warfare: Extensive investigation revealed that the PLA had been studying how to weaponize an engineered virus as recently as 2016 and published a report on how best to use such a weapon.
• Dr Eric Li. CCP Venture Capitalist. Dr Li is a Chinese national. He was educated in the US at the University of California at Berkeley and later at Stanford University. His PhD is from Fudan University in Shanghai China. He has focused his resources the growth and development of PRC high technology companies.
  • During a presentation at TED Talks Dr Li made the case that there are notable value differences between the Chinese world view and that typically found in the West.
  • In his summary of value comparisons he builds the position that the Chinese model works in ways that Western observers claim that it does not. He champions the Chinese "meritocratic system" as a means of managing public affairs.