Difference between revisions of "ChatGPT4-Questions/User:Darwin2049/Overview"

Latest revision as of 02:12, 26 December 2023

OpenAI - ChatGPT4.
In what follows we attempt to address several basic questions about the onrushing progress with the current focus of artificial intelligence. There are several competing actors in this space. These include OpenAI, DeepMind, Anthropic, and Cohere. A number of other competitors are active in the artificial intelligence market place. But for purposes of brevity and because of the overlap we will limit focus on ChatGPT4 (CG4). Further, we focus on several salient questions that that raise questions of safety, risk and prospects.

Responses. The following links connect to responses to their respective questions:

Interfacing/Accessibility-Conformability - Synthesis. how will different groups interact with, respond to and be affected by it; might access modalities available to one group have positive or negative implications for other groups;
Political/Competitive - Synthesis. how might different groups or actors gain or lose relative advantage; also, how might it be used as a tool of control;
Evolutionary/Stratification - Synthesis. might new classifications of social categories emerge; were phenotypical bifurcations to emerge would or how would the manifest themselves;
Epistemological - Synthesis how to reconcile ethical issues within a society, between societies; more specifically, might it provide solutions or results that are acceptable to the one group but unacceptable to the other group;

Summary. The links above point to this observer's assessment on how to answer the questions originally;
The links below point to the steps that underpin the answers above. Getting to these answers involved:

reify the questions: "in other words...": reframe and contextualize the questions;
sentiment: "so... people are saying...": this meant having a quick glance at the rapidly growing body of reviews and opinions; the resulting observations showed that there is a broad range of sentiment to enthusiasm to panic;
how does it work: "just push that button!": without getting too deep into the weeds, asking how an LLM works; early uses of the most popular system CG4 showed intrinsic shortcomings that obliged attention; other Deep Learning systems were examined superficially but coverage of their relative features is deferred for another round of analysis;
risks: "this is great/horrible news!": almost all new technologies involve risk of some sort; these might inherent or organic simply because of their existence or intentionally malicious; past experience provides a framework to speculate about what might come knowing what has been done before; some examples are provided to offer context for further discussion;
caveats: "however..." : given what is now known about these new capabilities it appeared to be useful to offer some qualifying caveats; these can be expanded upon, dismissed or modified as needed;
o.k. so far then: "so what if...": have been put forward as a way to approach the more speculative and theoretical prospects of where events may go;
conclusions - "so... this must mean that...": what do we know now; can we be sure, things are moving fast? can we just say that this is what we believe so far?;

Impressions Sentiments that fell into a few categories: positive (this is going to be great!), cautious (not so fast!...) (or cautiously worried) or alarmed (it might kill us all!). Geopolitical observers expressed existential threats from rivals - pedal to the metal!;
Operations, Understanding the CG4 internal mechanisms might offer some insight into how it does what it does. And therefore by extension how one group might gain or lose advantage. The result is that several variants of the Deep Learning approach came to light but the Large Language Model (LLM) seemed to be the preferred point of entre'. This was because it has shown itself to be remarkably versatile in its range of applicability.

Risks. Three categories emerged: systemic, malicious and theoretical. In each case our observation is that this new technology is inherently dual use.
That this technology does show itself to be dual use led to the intimation that a pause for some considerations was in order before proceeding. They led to the intermediate synthesis that can be found next.

Intermediate Synthesis Based upon what we have observed our deliberations suggested that we make more explicit what we think and feel as well as offering some caveats for further consideration.

Caveats Our analysis to this point has suggested that several crucial factors be acknowledged. These include such observations that Deep Learning technology results are dual use. They can be used to further facilitate social, economic and political well being. But they can also be used for malicious purposes that can not yet be imagined.

Phase Shift. Quantum computing is expected to momentarily make its debut by or before the end of the year. IBM will announce availability of its IBM Quantum System Two (EOY 2023). This recently available systems is based on a scalable ensemble of 432 Q-Bit Osprey devices. Migrating Deep Learning systems to a quantum computing environment will result in a quantum computing capability of over 1000 qubits and represents a before/after event.

Theoretical These are speculative. That being so, they attempt to avoid going beyond the bounds of the possible.

Conclusions Synthesis Finally we try to arrive at what supports our position regarding how the question groups were answered. These were the questions on interfaces, political, evolutionary and epistemology.

Note & References The notes and references that follow are intended to provide further support to the theses promoted in this effort.

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+IMPRESSIONS<BR>
+OPERATIONS<BR>
+CAVEATS<BR>
+RISKS<BR>
+INTERMEDIATE OBSERVATIONS/CONCLUSIONS<BR>
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+SPECULATION<BR>
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+<!--
+.12.25: wow! major step forward; quantum computing - very serious thicket to wade through; very difficult to try to summarize without sufficient
+background in physics and mathematics;
+-->
+[[File:OPENAI.png|left|220px]]
+'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">OpenAI - ChatGPT4.</SPAN>''''' </BR>
+In what follows we attempt to address several basic questions about the onrushing progress with the current focus of artificial intelligence. There are several competing actors in this space. These include OpenAI, DeepMind, Anthropic, and Cohere. A number of other competitors are active in the artificial intelligence market place. But for purposes of brevity and because of the overlap we will limit focus on ChatGPT4 (CG4). Further, we focus on several salient questions that that raise questions of safety, risk and prospects. <BR>
+'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">Responses.</SPAN>''''' The following links connect to responses to their respective questions:<BR>
+*'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:YELLOW">[https://arguably.io/User:Darwin2049/ChatGPT4/Conclusions_Synthesis Interfacing/Accessibility-Conformability - Synthesis.]</SPAN>''''' <Span Style="COLOR:WHITE; BACKGROUND:TEAL"> how will different groups interact with, respond to and be affected by it; might access modalities available to one group have positive or negative implications for other groups; </SPAN>
+*'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:YELLOW">[https://arguably.io/Darwin2049/chatgpt4_omega_political Political/Competitive - Synthesis.]</SPAN>''''' <Span Style="COLOR:WHITE; BACKGROUND:TEAL"> how might different groups or actors gain or lose relative advantage; also, how might it be used as a tool of control;</SPAN>
+*'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:YELLOW">[https://arguably.io/Darwin2049/chatgpt4_omega_evolutionary Evolutionary/Stratification - Synthesis.]</SPAN>''''' <Span Style="COLOR:WHITE; BACKGROUND:TEAL"> might new classifications of social categories emerge; were phenotypical bifurcations to emerge would or how would the manifest themselves;</SPAN><BR />
+* '''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:YELLOW">[https://arguably.io/Https://arguably.io/User:Darwin2049/chatgpt4_omega_epistemological Epistemological - Synthesis]</SPAN>''''' <Span Style="COLOR:WHITE; BACKGROUND:TEAL"> how to reconcile ethical issues within a society, between societies; more specifically, might it provide solutions or results that are acceptable to the one group but unacceptable to the other group;</SPAN><BR>
+<BR />
+'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">Summary.</SPAN>''''' The '''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:YELLOW">links above</SPAN>''''' point to this observer's assessment on how to answer the questions originally; <BR>
+The '''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:YELLOW">links below</SPAN>''''' point to the steps that underpin the answers above. Getting to these answers involved: <BR>
+*'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">reify the questions: "in other words...":</SPAN>''''' reframe and contextualize the questions;
+*'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">sentiment: "so... people are saying...":</SPAN>''''' this meant having a quick glance at the rapidly growing body of reviews and opinions; the resulting observations showed that there is a broad range of sentiment to enthusiasm to panic;
+*'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">how does it work: "just push that button!":</SPAN>''''' without getting too deep into the weeds, asking how an LLM works; early uses of the most popular system CG4 showed intrinsic shortcomings that obliged attention; other Deep Learning systems were examined superficially but coverage of their relative features is deferred for another round of analysis;
+*'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">risks: "this is great/horrible news!":</SPAN>''''' almost all new technologies involve risk of some sort; these might inherent or organic simply because of their existence or intentionally malicious; past experience provides a framework to speculate about what might come knowing what has been done before; some examples are provided to offer context for further discussion;
+*'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">caveats: "however..." :</SPAN>''''' given what is now known about these new capabilities it appeared to be useful to offer some qualifying caveats; these can be expanded upon, dismissed or modified as needed;
+*'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">o.k. so far then: "so what if...":</SPAN>''''' have been put forward as a way to approach the more speculative and theoretical prospects of where events may go;
+*'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">conclusions - "so... this must mean that...":</SPAN>''''' what do we know now; can we be sure, things are moving fast? can we just say that this is what we believe so far?;<BR>
+<!--
+Attempting to address these issues suggested that a sound basis for forward motion meant to reify them in terms of the implications that they present. The way that they are presented suggest that this new LLM technology entails risks to various constituencies. In order to characterize these risk meant that they needed to be identified. The nature of risk involve the potential for payoff. Which then suggested answering them in terms of game theory. Therefore how to view these various constituencies in terms of zero/non-zero sum outcomes. In order to gain leverage on that question meant getting an overview of sentiment. The sentiment used in this discourse involved a snap review of what some of the most informed observers were saying. What followed from this assessment was an evaluation of just what an LLM is and how it compares to other forms of Deep Learning systems.
+<BR>
+-->
+'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:YELLOW">[https://arguably.io/User:Darwin2049/chatgpt4_impressions Impressions]</SPAN>''''' Sentiments that fell into a few categories:
+'''''positive (this is going to be great!)''''', '''''cautious (not so fast!...) ''''' (or cautiously worried) or '''''alarmed (it might kill us all!).''''' Geopolitical observers expressed existential threats from rivals - ''''' pedal to the metal!'''''; <BR>
+<!--
+'''''<Span Style="COLOR:WHITE;BACKGROUND:BLUE">Impressions.</SPAN>''''' Addressing these question indicated that making a short survey of reporting with the intent to gauge the reported sentiment might offer some insight. The results suggested four major categories. These sentiments included ('''''positives''''' favor continued advances '''''worried''''' cautious, worried; '''''alarmed''''' petitioned for government intervention; '''''battle stations!''''' being overtaken by a rival is unacceptable);<BR> -->
+<!-- The way that these sentiments were categorized in terms of risk involved describing the kind of risk that each seemed to be either stating explicitly or implying.<BR>
+An analysis of sentiment and impressions could easily become a research effort in and of itself. That did not appear to be the primary objective of the examination. Therefore only a small sampling of well publicized reports have been included. Possibly a more detailed approach might be indicated at a later time.
+-->
+'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:YELLOW">[https://arguably.io/User:Darwin2049/ChatGPT4_Operations  Operations]</SPAN>''''', Understanding the CG4 internal mechanisms might offer some insight into how it does what it does. And therefore by extension how one group might gain or lose advantage. The result is that several variants of the Deep Learning approach came to light but the Large Language Model (LLM) seemed to be the preferred point of entre'. This was because it has shown itself to be remarkably versatile in its range of applicability. <BR>
+'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:YELLOW">[https://arguably.io/User:Darwin2049/ChatGPT4/Risks  Risks.]</SPAN>''''' Three categories emerged: systemic, malicious and theoretical. In each case our observation is that this new technology is inherently dual use.<BR> That this technology does show itself to be dual use led to the intimation that a pause for some considerations was in order before proceeding. They led to the intermediate synthesis that can be found next.
+'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:YELLOW">[https://arguably.io/User:Darwin2049/ChatGPT4_Intermediate_Considerations Intermediate Synthesis]</SPAN>''''' Based upon what we have observed
+our deliberations suggested that we make more explicit what we think and feel as well as offering some caveats for further consideration.<BR>
+'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:YELLOW">[https://arguably.io/User:Darwin2049/chatgpt4_caveats Caveats]</SPAN>''''' Our analysis to this point has suggested that several crucial factors be acknowledged. These include such observations that Deep Learning technology results are dual use. They can be used to further facilitate social, economic and political well being. But they can also be used for malicious purposes that can not yet be imagined.<BR>
+'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:YELLOW">[https://arguably.io/Darwin2049/ChatGPT4/PhaseShift Phase Shift.]</SPAN>''''' Quantum computing is expected to momentarily make its debut by or before the end of the year. IBM will announce availability of its '''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">IBM Quantum System Two</SPAN>''''' (EOY 2023). This recently available systems is based on a scalable ensemble of '''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">432 Q-Bit Osprey</SPAN>''''' devices. Migrating Deep Learning systems to a quantum computing environment will result in a quantum computing capability of over 1000 qubits and represents a '''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE;BACKGROUND:SILVER">before/after</SPAN>''''' event. <BR>
+'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:YELLOW">[https://arguably.io/User:Darwin2049/ChatGPT4/Theoretical Theoretical]</SPAN>''''' These are speculative. That being so, they attempt to avoid going beyond the bounds of the possible. <BR>
+'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:YELLOW">[https://arguably.io/User:Darwin2049/ChatGPT4/Conclusions_Synthesis Conclusions Synthesis]</SPAN>''''' Finally we try to arrive at what supports our position regarding how the question groups were answered. These were the questions on interfaces, political, evolutionary and epistemology. <BR>
+'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:YELLOW">Note & References</SPAN>''''' The notes and references that follow are intended to provide further support to the theses promoted in this effort.
+<!-- *********************************************************************************************************** -->
+<!-- *********************************************************************************************************** -->
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 <!-- 20231018:1600  need to get these linkages back in order WITH corrected name conventions   -->
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-[[File:OPENAI.png|left|220px]]
-'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">OpenAI - ChatGPT4.</SPAN>''''' <BR />
-In what follows we attempt to address several basic questions about the onrushing progress with the current focus of artificial intelligence. There are several competing actors in this space. These include OpenAI, DeepMind, Anthropic, and Cohere. A number of other competitors are active in the artificial intelligence market place. But for purposes of brevity and because of the overlap we will limit focus on ChatGPT4 (CG4). Further, we focus on several salient questions that that raise questions of safety, risk and prospects. <BR />
 <!--   ********************************************************************************* -->
 <!--   2023.10.12@22:00 linking is somewhat simpler than originally thought proceed with -->
@@ Line 35: / Line 96: @@
 <!--  are presented in a somewhat different order and mapping than the original          -->
 <!--  questions suggest                                                                  -->
+<!--  *********************************************************************************  -->
+<!--  *********************************************************************************  -->
+<!--  20231026: wrestling with this editor is a full time job; better to just write      -->
+<!--  using linear approach then edit later; otherwise it is FAR too easy to get bogged  -->
+<!--  down trying to figure out navigation and color semantics;                          -->
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-Specifically, risks that involve or are:
+<!--
-*'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:YELLOW">[https://arguably.io/User:Darwin2049/ChatGPT4/Conclusions_Synthesis Interfacing/Accessibility-Conformability - Synthesis.]</SPAN>''''' <Span Style="COLOR:WHITE; BACKGROUND:TEAL"> how will different groups interact with, respond to and be affected by it; might access modalities available to one group have positive or negative implications for other groups; </SPAN>
+*'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:YELLOW">[https://arguably.io/Https://arguably.io/User:Darwin2049/chatgpt4_omega_epistemological Epistemological/Ethical Relativism - Synthesis]</SPAN>'''''<Span Style="COLOR:WHITE; BACKGROUND:TEAL"> how to reconcile ethical issues within a society, between societies; more specifically, might it provide solutions or results that are acceptable to the one group but unacceptable to the other group;<Span Style="COLOR:WHITE; BACKGROUND:BLUE"><BR>
-*'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:YELLOW">[https://arguably.io/Darwin2049/chatgpt4_omega_political Political/Competitive - Synthesis.]</SPAN>''''' <Span Style="COLOR:WHITE; BACKGROUND:TEAL"> how might different groups or actors gain or lose relative advantage; also, how might it be used as a tool of control;</SPAN>
+'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">Synthesis.</SPAN>''''' <BR> These four question groups (''<Span Style="COLOR:WHITE; BACKGROUND:BLUE">interface, political, evolution</SPAN> and <Span Style="COLOR:WHITE; BACKGROUND:BLUE">epistemological</SPAN>'') form the core of what follows. Attempting to respond to these questions obliged the development of a review and response plan. What followed is a set of steps that have attempted to shed light on each of these areas; over the course of this examination the reality has been that addressing these four groups was not a straightforward one to one mapping;
-*'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:YELLOW">[https://arguably.io/Darwin2049/chatgpt4_omega_evolutionary Evolutionary/Stratification - Synthesis.]</SPAN>''''' <Span Style="COLOR:WHITE; BACKGROUND:TEAL"> might new classifications of social categories emerge; were phenotypical bifurcations to emerge would or how would the manifest themselves;</SPAN><BR />
+Instead, addressing them has meant gaining focus on informed perceptions by knowledge able observers; from there it was possible to proceed to try to answer the implicit questions relating to risk; in order to understand risk entailed getting a better picture of what underpins the CG4 technology and by corollary its peer architectures; by way of identifying and articulating the various risk categories only a short step was indicated to ask the question of "what happens now?"; this is presented in a speculative step into a near future when new tools and processes have become accepted
-*'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:YELLOW">[https://arguably.io/Https://arguably.io/User:Darwin2049/chatgpt4_omega_epistemological Epistemological/Ethical Relativism - Synthesis]</SPAN>'''''<Span Style="COLOR:WHITE; BACKGROUND:TEAL"> how to reconcile ethical issues within a society, between societies; more specifically, might it provide solutions or results that are acceptable to the one group but unacceptable to the other group;</SPAN><BR />
+Therefore this examination proceeds along the following lines:
-'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">Synthesis.</SPAN>''''' <BR /> Responding to these questions calls for some baseline information and insights about the issues that this new technology entails.
+*'''''overview informed sentiment:''''' if possible group together into camps which turned out to reduce to: (''1) press on, 2) proceed with caution, 3) severe storm warnings ahead, 4) damn the torpedoes! full speed ahead!.'' );
+*'''''we know that they are there:''''' knowledgeable observers have provided numerous reports of CCP hacking and related malicious efforts;
+*'''''they have signaled their intentions''''' CCP literature and propaganda has made very clear that the West is an obstacle and that the US is the prime target;
+*'''''their approach has been adversarial:''''' they have used clearly hostile practices to gain strategic advantage
+*'''''expert consensus confirms this reality:''''' the PRC has clearly indicated its intent to become the global leader;
+*'''''the risk can not be ignored:''''' for the West to do otherwise risks experiencing a potentially crippling setback; the extreme risk category asserts that maintaining the technological lead is non-negotiable;
-'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">Original Questions.</SPAN>''''' In order to formulate a coherent response to the questions as they were originally posed this observer took the approach of performing a cursory scan of the news reports on this new technological advance. It had been showing up in various reporting channels off and on but nothing specific seemed to hint that it might represent the massive anchor chain that it would ultimately reveal itself to be.<BR />
+By of proceeding, we:
+*'''''spotlight the main AI approaches:''''' show several comparable technologies (''generative, transformers, bidirectional, bidirectional encoders, generative adversarial, convolutional, recursive, large language models.'');<BR>
-'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">Literature Review.</SPAN>''''' Therefore the path of progress proceeded along the lines of:
+*'''''focus risk questions:''''' the four question groups mentioned above implicitly suggest risk; the following analysis offers several examples that suggest how CG4 class systems will extend the realities of risk; ''systemic, malicious and theoretical''); in the case of theoretical we would add that caveats apply when reviewing this group because of the inherent dual use capabilities that CG4 offers;
-What are informed people saying about this new capability was foretelling. Reporting seemed to be increasing by the day. This necessitated limiting the choices of what to view and include since trying to gather it all could become a research project in and of itself.
-'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">Sentiment.</SPAN>''''' In order to maintain focus and forward momentum sentiment has been expressed as voices arguing in favor of further development. Other notable voices have urged caution going forward. Not least among them were such notable figures as Elon Musk. Voices expressing the same sentiment but with greater force suggested that all efforts going forward with this research should be paused for a limited amount of time. Then there were voices that expressed grave concern that this represents an existential all-of-national-resources imperative to go pedal to the metal. The risk to slow down or pause while avowed rivals are pressing ahead was just too great.<BR />
+*'''''exemplify risk categories:''''' show examples of how the new technology will impact existing risks and suggest novel new risks that may arise;<BR />
-'''''Press on!'''''<BR />
+'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">Looking Forward.</SPAN>''''' The picture that appears to be emerging suggests that looking forward a short distance in time suggests that a range of surprises await those who are using this technology.
-'''''Proceed with caution!'''''<BR />
+'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">Black Swan Event.</SPAN>''''' Recent developments in the area of quantum computing suggests that as this technology gains it grounding everything done with computing and especially artificial intelligence will be totally eclipsed by the capabilities that this new environment will offer.
-'''''Severe storm warnings ahead!'''''<BR />
+-->
-'''''Damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead!'''''<BR />
+<!-- *************************************************************************************     -->
+<!-- *************************************************************************************     -->
-Based upon these sentiment it should come as no surprise that the risks are real and pressing. Anyone viewing a real time world map of malicious attacks shows a planet awash in twenty-four seven activity.<BR />
+<!--
+* '''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:YELLOW">[https://arguably.io/User:Darwin2049/chatgpt4_impressions Impressions]</SPAN>''''' that have been expressed by knowledgeable observers; a short sampling of impressions and perceptions include voices that are or are saying:
-'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">'''''Model Variations.</SPAN>''''' By this point in the examination it became evident that putting a spotlight the underlying technology might help. This revealed that there were several variations on the underlying approach of Deep Learning systems. Prominent ones included: generative, transformers, bidirectional, bidirectional encoders  generative adversarial, convolutional, recursive and large language models.<BR />
+-->
+<!-- *************************************************************************************     -->
-We briefly touch on each of these but the main focus has been on the LLM approach that uses a Pretrained approach, hence the name GPT... generative pretrained transformers.<BR />
+<!-- *************************************************************************************     -->
+<!--
-'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">'''''Risks.</SPAN>''''' Therefore the immediate follow on question became given that this is a major advance in a known technology how might it be incorporated, the answer to that rhetorical question fell right out into plain view as being how might this new technology pose risks, and what kinds of risks. These immediately fell into three main categories... i.e. risks that were organic or arose innately as a result of their mere existence, risks that were malicious, or would be seized upon by actors with malevolent intent and risks that were theoretical.<BR />
+*'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:YELLOW">[https://arguably.io/User:Darwin2049/chatgpt4_caveats  Caveats.]</SPAN>''''' <BR>After assessing the range of sentiment from very well informed observers and experts our conclusion is that a summary of caveats and qualifications might help in constraining and focusing the discussion going forward.
-'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER"></SPAN>'''''Looking Forward.</SPAN>''''' The picture that appears to be emerging suggests that looking forward a short distance in time suggests that a range of surprises await those who are using this technology.
-'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER"></SPAN>'''''Black Swan Event.</SPAN>''''' Recent developments in the area of quantum computing suggests that as this technology gains it grounding everything done with computing and especially artificial intelligence will be totally eclipsed by the capabilities that this new environment will offer.
-A list of instances for each emerged in short order. They are presented after a short section on sentiment has been presented.
-We propose to suggest we look <BR />
-* '''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:YELLOW">[https://arguably.io/User:Darwin2049/chatgpt4_impressions Impressions]</SPAN>''''' that has been expressed by knowledgeable observers; a short sampling of impressions and perceptions include voices that are or are saying:
-*'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:YELLOW">[https://arguably.io/User:Darwin2049/chatgpt4_caveats  Caveats.]</SPAN>''''' <BR />After assessing the range of sentiment from very well informed observers and experts our conclusion is that a summary of caveats and qualifications might help in constraining and focusing the discussion going forward.
 * '''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">An inflection point</SPAN>''''' either has or momentarily will be or has been reached;
 * '''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">mitigating surprise</SPAN>''''' the concerned community would be well advised to regularly monitor the archive for papers  so as to mitigate the gain early warning;
 * '''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">Imaginative expectation is advised</SPAN>''''' because novel combinations are emerging that will herald entirely new forms of CP capabilities; most of which can not be guessed at as of this writing (Fall 2023);
-* '''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">Quantum Computing will upend all expectations.</SPAN>''''' As of this report the major actors in this space have already reported advances. In the case of the IBM corporation their Quantum System Two may very well shatter all expectations. Current indications are that deep learning tools can be hosted on these new environments. At that point in time the ability of a deep learning CP based tool will take on qualities that can not now be estimated. Current training times have been reported to have required weeks to months to train as was the case of CG4. These times may now collapse to seconds or less.
+* '''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">quantum computing will eclipse all advances to date</SPAN>''''' As of this report the major actors in this space have already reported advances. In the case of the IBM corporation their Quantum System Two may very well shatter all expectations. Current indications are that deep learning tools can be hosted on these new environments. At that point in time the ability of a deep learning CP based tool will take on qualities that can not now be estimated. Current training times have been reported to have required weeks to months to train as was the case of CG4. These times may now collapse to seconds or less.
-* '''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">Pseudo-AGI (PAGI)</SPAN>''''' might be a way to envision what to expect. This terminology is intended to suggest that the term AGI might be too simplistic and may require further analysis and refinement.
+* '''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">pseudo-AGI (PAGI)</SPAN>''''' might be a way to envision what to expect. This terminology is intended to suggest that the term AGI might be too simplistic and may require further analysis and refinement.
-** '''''Quantum Based CP (QBCP)'''''should be expected given that existing or soon-to-be commercialized systems will become the next logical environment in which to host CPs;
+** '''''Quantum Based CP (QBCP)'''''soon-to-be formally announced quantum computing systems will become the next logical environment in which to host CPs; when this happens expect training volumes to explode and training times to collapse; incorporation of knew knowledge will become almost instant;
-** '''''QBCP''''' will show instant performance improvements; training data set or sets that have required weeks to months could be incorporated instantly;
+** '''''intelligent interfacing tools ''''' incorporating advanced theory of mind metrics will minimize the interval between end user motivation hypothesis and action plan to mere instants; such a capability might appear to even an expert user like interacting with an extremely well versed, empathetic and supportive colleague;
-** '''''Intelligent interfacing tools ''''' that can capitalize on a broad range of theory of mind could minimize the interval between end user motivation hypothesis and action plan to mere instants; such a capability might appear to even an expert user like interacting with an extremely well versed, empathetic and supportive colleague;
+** '''''autonomous QBCP/PAGI linking'''''' multiple QBCP's will form ad hoc or permanent communications pathways between themselves; these assemblages will enable the merging of multiple skills and capabilities that can not now be guessed at; these new capabilities will extend and then supersede the current trend of using communications tools such as WebEx or Zoom for conferencing; rather individuals who are in possession of their own targeted CP will enable access to peer CP's; this access might be transitory and transactional or might form the basis of new enterprises;
-** '''''Autonomous QBCP/PAGI networking'''''' might be a means whereby multiple QBCP's might form either ad hoc or permanent communications pathways between themselves in order to provide user groups or communities with responses; the quality of queries that a user community might pose will as always be limited to the quality and depth of knowledge of that community;
 ** '''''exponential growth - Cambrian explosion''''' no capabilities such as this have yet been reported; yet there appear to be no obstacles to their development; the rise of
-** '''''these kinds of composite CP's '''''may not yet have been reported on; however the observant reader should not preclude their immanent arrival;
+** '''''dawn of advanced composite CP's ''''' construction of modern cruise ships might serve as a basis upon which to understand the scale of capability that will shortly emerge;
 ** '''''Darwinian evolution''''' AGI may have yet to arrive; however close approximations may soon become evident; we could see an accelerated Moore's Law of evolution where problems that have heretofore taken months or years to solve might not only be solved in a morning but that highly sophisticated access and control tools might become commonly available mid-afternoon;
-* '''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">High ground.</SPAN>'''''The reality of a near-pear in the guise of a demonstrably hostile CCP urges caution;
+* '''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:YELLOW">[https://arguably.io/User:Darwin2049/ChatGPT4_Operations Terms, Theory of Operation]</SPAN>'''''
-** knowledgeable observers have provided numerous reports of CCP hacking and related malicious efforts;
+-->
-** CCP literature and propaganda has made very clear that the West is an obstacle and that the US is the prime target;
+<!-- *************************************************************************************     -->
-** demonstrated practices on the part of PRC companies to demand access to corporate IPR are numerous; therefore
+<!-- *************************************************************************************     -->
-** anticipating that the PRC will attempt to neutralize the best efforts from the West can safely be assumed; otherwise we in the West risk seeing experiencing disruptive or devastatin pre-emptive actions against our corporate and defense capacities from means or techniques that our best and brightest find mysterious and unfathomable.
+<!--
-* '''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:YELLOW">[https://arguably.io/User:Darwin2049/ChatGPT4_Operations Terms, Theory of Operation]</SPAN>''''' of technology paradigm used to produce its results;
 **concepts are presented that contrast large language models with generative and generative adversarial models;
 **several other deep learning models are summarized as well for the purpose of further context;
 **LLM operation is sketched out in this section; several helpful video segments are presented that are intended to further facilitate why the LLM approach has become so successful;
 **novel and unexpected forms of emergent behavior are mentioned;<BR />
-*'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:YELLOW">[https://arguably.io/User:Darwin2049/ChatGPT4/RISKS Risks]</SPAN>''''' our approach has been to present a few commonly occurring risks,
+*'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:YELLOW">[https://arguably.io/User:Darwin2049/ChatGPT4/RISKS Risks]</SPAN>''''' our approach has been to present a few commonly occurring risks these have collected into groups that are
-**that are inherent, organic and systemic with any new revolutionary science or technology
+**'''''organic''''' or otherwise systemic and innate within the science or technology itself;
-**those that arise spontaneously as a result of malicious actors and
+**'''''malicious actors''''' should be expected to formulate highly elaborate netcentric attacks; we should expect that elaborate collections of actions, bait and switch, false flag and seemingly random but covertly connected acts of sabotage to become the new normal;
-**those that are theoretical;
+**'''''theoretical risks''''' are speculative; but are based upon what is know known and are intended to spotlight what is possible within the purview of known capabilities;
-*'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:YELLOW">[https://arguably.io/User:Darwin2049/ChatGPT4_Intermediate_Considerations Intermediate Considerations.]</SPAN>''''' If we step back for a moment and summarize what some observers have had to say about this new capability then we might tentatively start with that:
+*'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:YELLOW">[https://arguably.io/User:Darwin2049/ChatGPT4_Intermediate_Considerations Intermediate Considerations.]</SPAN>'''''
+-->
+<!-- If we step back for a moment and summarize what some observers have had to say about this new capability then we might tentatively start with that:
 **	is based upon and is a refinement of its predecessor, the Chat GPT 3.5 system;
 **	has been developed using the generative predictive transformer (GPT) model;
@@ Line 109: / Line 169: @@
 **	uses deep learning neural networks and very large training data sets;
 **	uses a SAAS model; like Google Search, Youtube or Morningstar Financial;
+-->
-'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:YELLOW">Back to root page: [https://arguably.io/ChatGPT4-Questions ChatGPT4-Questions]</SPAN>'''''
+<BR>'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:YELLOW">Back to root page: [https://arguably.io/ChatGPT4-Questions ChatGPT4-Questions]</SPAN>'''''
+<!-- *************************************************************************************     -->
+<!-- *************************************************************************************     -->
+<!--
+'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">Original Questions.</SPAN>''''' Formulating a response to these questions took the approach of scanning whatever news reports seemed to make mention of the topic; from there look for sentiment patterns or groupings;</BR> as this process progressed
+'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">Sentiment.</SPAN>''''' In order to maintain focus and forward momentum sentiment has been expressed as voices arguing in favor of further development. Other notable voices have urged caution going forward. Not least among them were such notable figures as Elon Musk. Voices expressing the same sentiment but with greater force suggested that all efforts going forward with this research should be paused for a limited amount of time. Then there were voices that expressed grave concern that this represents an existential all-of-national-resources imperative to go pedal to the metal. The risk to slow down or pause while avowed rivals are pressing ahead was just too great. In short the main camps that seem to have coalesced include: '''''press on, proceed with caution, severe storm warnings ahead, damn the torpedoes full speed ahead.'''''<BR>
+'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">Literature Review.</SPAN>''''' Therefore the path of progress proceeded along the lines of: what are informed people saying about this new capability was foretelling. Reporting seemed to be increasing by the day. This necessitated limiting the choices of what to view and include since trying to gather it all could become a research project in and of itself.
+Based upon these sentiment it should come as no surprise that the risks are real and pressing. Anyone viewing a real time world map of malicious attacks shows a planet awash in twenty-four seven activity.<BR>
+'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">Model Variations.</SPAN>''''' By this point in the examination it became evident that putting a spotlight the underlying technology might help. This revealed that there were several variations on the underlying approach of Deep Learning systems. Prominent ones included:
+'''''generative, transformers, bidirectional, bidirectional encoders, generative adversarial, convolutional, recursive, large language models.'''''<BR>
+We briefly touch on each of these but the main focus has been on the LLM approach that uses a Pretrained approach, hence the name GPT... generative pretrained transformers.<BR>
+'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">Risks.</SPAN>''''' Therefore the immediate follow on question became given that this is a major advance in a known technology how might it be incorporated, the answer to that rhetorical question fell right out into plain view as being how might this new technology pose risks, and what kinds of risks. These immediately fell into three main categories... i.e. risks that were organic (they arose innately as a result of their existence), malicious (actors with malevolent intent) and theoretical (possible new developments that are possible or newly enabled).<BR>
+-->

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