Difference between revisions of "ChatGPT4-Questions/User:Darwin2049/Overview"

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*'''''exemplify risk categories:''''' show examples of how the new technology will impact existing risks and suggest novel new risks that may arise;<BR />
*'''''exemplify risk categories:''''' show examples of how the new technology will impact existing risks and suggest novel new risks that may arise;<BR />
'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">Looking Forward.</SPAN>''''' The picture that appears to be emerging suggests that looking forward a short distance in time suggests that a range of surprises await those who are using this technology.  
'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">Looking Forward.</SPAN>''''' The picture that appears to be emerging suggests that looking forward a short distance in time suggests that a range of surprises await those who are using this technology.  
'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">Black Swan Event.</SPAN>''''' Recent developments in the area of quantum computing suggests that as this technology gains it grounding everything done with computing and especially artificial intelligence will be totally eclipsed by the capabilities that this new environment will offer.   
'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">Black Swan Event.</SPAN>''''' Recent developments in the area of quantum computing suggests that as this technology gains it grounding everything done with computing and especially artificial intelligence will be totally eclipsed by the capabilities that this new environment will offer.   
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* '''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:YELLOW">[https://arguably.io/User:Darwin2049/chatgpt4_impressions Impressions]</SPAN>''''' that have been expressed by knowledgeable observers; a short sampling of impressions and perceptions include voices that are or are saying:  
* '''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:YELLOW">[https://arguably.io/User:Darwin2049/chatgpt4_impressions Impressions]</SPAN>''''' that have been expressed by knowledgeable observers; a short sampling of impressions and perceptions include voices that are or are saying:  
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*'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:YELLOW">[https://arguably.io/User:Darwin2049/chatgpt4_caveats  Caveats.]</SPAN>''''' <BR />After assessing the range of sentiment from very well informed observers and experts our conclusion is that a summary of caveats and qualifications might help in constraining and focusing the discussion going forward.  
*'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:YELLOW">[https://arguably.io/User:Darwin2049/chatgpt4_caveats  Caveats.]</SPAN>''''' <BR />After assessing the range of sentiment from very well informed observers and experts our conclusion is that a summary of caveats and qualifications might help in constraining and focusing the discussion going forward.  
* '''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">An inflection point</SPAN>''''' either has or momentarily will be or has been reached;  
* '''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">An inflection point</SPAN>''''' either has or momentarily will be or has been reached;  
* '''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">mitigating surprise</SPAN>''''' the concerned community would be well advised to regularly monitor the archive for papers  so as to mitigate the gain early warning;  
* '''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">mitigating surprise</SPAN>''''' the concerned community would be well advised to regularly monitor the archive for papers  so as to mitigate the gain early warning;  
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* '''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:YELLOW">[https://arguably.io/User:Darwin2049/ChatGPT4_Operations Terms, Theory of Operation]</SPAN>'''''   
* '''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:YELLOW">[https://arguably.io/User:Darwin2049/ChatGPT4_Operations Terms, Theory of Operation]</SPAN>'''''   
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**'''''theoretical risks''''' are speculative; but are based upon what is know known and are intended to spotlight what is possible within the purview of known capabilities;
**'''''theoretical risks''''' are speculative; but are based upon what is know known and are intended to spotlight what is possible within the purview of known capabilities;
*'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:YELLOW">[https://arguably.io/User:Darwin2049/ChatGPT4_Intermediate_Considerations Intermediate Considerations.]</SPAN>'''''  
*'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:YELLOW">[https://arguably.io/User:Darwin2049/ChatGPT4_Intermediate_Considerations Intermediate Considerations.]</SPAN>'''''  
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<!-- If we step back for a moment and summarize what some observers have had to say about this new capability then we might tentatively start with that:
<!-- If we step back for a moment and summarize what some observers have had to say about this new capability then we might tentatively start with that:
** is based upon and is a refinement of its predecessor, the Chat GPT 3.5 system;
** is based upon and is a refinement of its predecessor, the Chat GPT 3.5 system;
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** uses a SAAS model; like Google Search, Youtube or Morningstar Financial;
** uses a SAAS model; like Google Search, Youtube or Morningstar Financial;
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<BR />'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:YELLOW">Back to root page: [https://arguably.io/ChatGPT4-Questions ChatGPT4-Questions]</SPAN>'''''
<BR />'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:YELLOW">Back to root page: [https://arguably.io/ChatGPT4-Questions ChatGPT4-Questions]</SPAN>'''''
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We briefly touch on each of these but the main focus has been on the LLM approach that uses a Pretrained approach, hence the name GPT... generative pretrained transformers.<BR />
We briefly touch on each of these but the main focus has been on the LLM approach that uses a Pretrained approach, hence the name GPT... generative pretrained transformers.<BR />
'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">Risks.</SPAN>''''' Therefore the immediate follow on question became given that this is a major advance in a known technology how might it be incorporated, the answer to that rhetorical question fell right out into plain view as being how might this new technology pose risks, and what kinds of risks. These immediately fell into three main categories... i.e. risks that were organic (they arose innately as a result of their existence), malicious (actors with malevolent intent) and theoretical (possible new developments that are possible or newly enabled).<BR />
'''''<Span Style="COLOR:BLUE; BACKGROUND:SILVER">Risks.</SPAN>''''' Therefore the immediate follow on question became given that this is a major advance in a known technology how might it be incorporated, the answer to that rhetorical question fell right out into plain view as being how might this new technology pose risks, and what kinds of risks. These immediately fell into three main categories... i.e. risks that were organic (they arose innately as a result of their existence), malicious (actors with malevolent intent) and theoretical (possible new developments that are possible or newly enabled).<BR />
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Revision as of 20:43, 9 November 2023

2023.11.09 - PAGE IS NOW ALL SCREWED UP....
FIRST ORDER OF BUSINESS FOR TOMORROW IS TO PUT IT BACK IN ORDER
AND FIX UP ANY OTHER DISCREPANCIES; SHOULD BE: (AND EXPLAIN WHY)
IMPRESSIONS
OPERATIONS
CAVEATS
RISKS
INTERMEDIATE OBSERVATIONS/CONCLUSIONS
PHASE SHIFT
SPECULATION
CONCLUSION

OPENAI.png

OpenAI - ChatGPT4.
In what follows we attempt to address several basic questions about the onrushing progress with the current focus of artificial intelligence. There are several competing actors in this space. These include OpenAI, DeepMind, Anthropic, and Cohere. A number of other competitors are active in the artificial intelligence market place. But for purposes of brevity and because of the overlap we will limit focus on ChatGPT4 (CG4). Further, we focus on several salient questions that that raise questions of safety, risk and prospects.
Specifically, risks that involve or are:

  • Interfacing/Accessibility-Conformability - Synthesis. how will different groups interact with, respond to and be affected by it; might access modalities available to one group have positive or negative implications for other groups;
  • Political/Competitive - Synthesis. how might different groups or actors gain or lose relative advantage; also, how might it be used as a tool of control;
  • Evolutionary/Stratification - Synthesis. might new classifications of social categories emerge; were phenotypical bifurcations to emerge would or how would the manifest themselves;
  • Epistemological - Synthesis how to reconcile ethical issues within a society, between societies; more specifically, might it provide solutions or results that are acceptable to the one group but unacceptable to the other group;

Impressions and Sentiment Synthesis. Four question groups (indicated above interface, political, evolution and epistemological) are the foundation upon which the analysis as presented follows. Addressing these questions meant acknowledging that they entail both explicit and implicit questions. Game: Zero or Non-Zero Sum. Each of these question groups points to the risks associated with power shift dynamics; specifically, who stands to gain and who stands to lose as a result of this new reality;
Impressions. Addressing these question indicated that making a short survey of reporting with the intent to gauge the reported sentiment might offer some insight. The results suggested four major categories. These sentiments included (positives favor continued advances worried cautious, worried; alarmed petitioned for government intervention; battle stations! being overtaken by a rival is unacceptable);

The way that these sentiments were categorized in terms of risk involved describing the kind of risk that each seemed to be either stating explicitly or implying.
An analysis of sentiment and impressions could easily become a research effort in and of itself. That did not appear to be the primary objective of the examination. Therefore only a small sampling of well publicized reports have been included. Possibly a more detailed approach might be indicated at a later time.

Operations, Understanding the CG4 internal mechanisms might offer some insight into how it does what it does. And therefore by extension how one group might gain or lose advantage. The result is that several variants of the Deep Learning approach came to light but the Large Language Model (LLM) seemed to be the preferred point of entre'. This was because it has shown itself to be remarkably versatile in its range of applicability.

Risks. Three categories emerged: systemic, malicious and theoretical. In each case our observation is that this new technology is inherently dual use.
That this technology does show itself to be dual use led to the intimation that a pause for some considerations was in order before proceeding. They led to the intermediate synthesis that can be found next.

Intermediate Synthesis Based upon what we have observed our deliberations suggested that we make more explicit what we think and feel as well as offering some caveats for further consideration.

Caveats Our analysis to this point has suggested that several crucial factors be acknowledged. These include such observations that Deep Learning technology results are dual use. They can be used to further facilitate social, economic and political well being. But they can also be used for malicious purposes that can not yet be imagined.

Phase Shift. The IBM Quantum System Two (EOY 2023) has served notice that it will release 432 Q-Bit Osprey. Migrating Deep Learning systems to a quantum computing environment will result in a before/after event.


Theoretical These theoretical thoughts are more speculative. However they attempt to avoid going beyond the bounds of what is actually possible.

Conclusions Synthesis Finally we try to arrive at what supports our position regarding how the question groups were answered. These were the questions on interfaces, political, evolutionary and epistemology.

Note & References The notes and references that follow are intended to provide further support to the theses promoted in this effort.


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